Tegel IPO

[smtrader]

Correct me if im wrong, but wasn't the shares oversubscribed? and everybody was scaled back heavily?? wouldnt that in itself mean that for the very first few weeks/months of trading there will still be some residual demand??

That leads me to think that with no news coming out, the only reason the shares have taken a pull back was because there was a bit of speculation to a quick buck immediately on the usual ipo pop.

I can still see significant sell orders that have been put through on the day of IPO and are still standing at around 1.70, some of which i've seen move their orders down and down..

Also i don't know what the regulatory rules around post ipo commitments by institutional investors and underwriters in NZ, but usually there's an allotment for repurchases after ipo to keep the price atleast above ipo level for a good period of time post ipo... i can't see how a PE company would overlook putting this risk management measure in place, specially with their 45% stake locked in for a while, it just makes perfect sense to do.. so taking all these points into account, i highly doubt we will see price going below 1.55.

[Rep]

I am not a broker trying to sell it, I am a Tiger who may at some point want to buy it.

No, at $1.45 TGH is trading on a prospective one-year forward PE of 12 etc.
For that scenario I have a value of $1.57 for a year's time.
(Since I learnt that PE ratios cloud this valuation mind - I take no interest in them)

Given RBD bought NSW recently I wonder what value I would put on RBD too .

We will have to see how realistic the prospectus really turned out to be.
I have done my sums and I gets my numbers and I am happy with them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

RBD bought QSR who have the largest number of KFC franchises in NSW, I note that Collins Foods just hoovered up a number of stores from some of the smaller franchisees in NSW recently. Collins owns KFCs in NT and QLD which I think they bought from Competitive Foods.

[smtrader]

I am not a broker trying to sell it, I am a Tiger who may at some point want to buy it.

Given your analysis of the future for it what use to you would it make to buy it?? ...such a buy would sound like an asymmetrical risk negatively geared.. contradictory statement to your analysis if you ask me.

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] i highly doubt we will see price going below 1.55.

Notwithstanding your optimism, which may be justified, TGH despite its apparently low-end IPO has suffered the seemingly inevitable NZX speculative overhang and sell off, subsequently exiting a few weaker hands below IPO where the SP currently sits.

I wonder whether the speculation around the IPO listing price, eventuating at the lower end and the reluctance of the market to sustain even that low price is a sign.

With little data to go on at this stage, TGH is already a down trending share, albeit a bit perky on Friday. One day doesn't make a trend though. There is enough data to suggest waiting until at least a break-up above the IPO before accumulating or buying in.

jmho, dyodd.

FWIW even a back yard farmer can put a 7-8 week eater on the plate without any special chemicals except plenty of good food and some space to run around.

[smtrader]

Attachment 8055
Not just optimism.. really old sell orders that have been in place on ipo, lots of it has already gone.. it was millions and millions worth..

[Balance]

I'm sorry but you don't know what you are talking about. The use of hormones to grow poultry has been banned in New Zealand for decades, I challenge you to show one single credible report that shows that local grown poultry uses them or where there is residue from hormones in the meat.

The reason those birds grow in the manner you described is due to selective breeding, the feed they given and the type of barn they are raised in.

Best thing anyone contemplating investing in Tegel must go and talk to a few chicken breeders/suppliers to Tegel, rather than rely on the company's assertions or as we have read on this forum, misinformed and/or inaccurate information about the industry and the company.

I have talked to a couple and their views are very revealing. On balance, it leads me to believe that the positives outweigh the negatives.

Clue - they would like to expand production but have to wait in a long queue due to the contractual nature of their relationship with the two monopolistic players to the local market.

[Grunter]

the two monopolistic players to the local market.

That would be a duopoly

[Balance]

That would be a duopoly

Similar to so many other industries in NZ - beer, telecommunications, airlines, supermarkets, newspapers, TVs etc etc.

[Balance]

Crossings now at higher prices than the $1.60 and $1.61 last week.

[Snow Leopard]

... the two monopolistic players to the local market.

That would be a duopoly

Are we talking about the board game?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger