Tegel IPO

[hardt]

Our weakening dollar alongside global poultry prices that are set to well exceed the first half, looks like a very positive sign for Tegel.

Matrix/Chart below was taken from IMF website last month [ I have amended to NZD ]

Month	Price	Change
Apr16	1.62	-
May16	1.64	1.61%
Jun16	1.59	-3.26%
Jul16	1.57	-1.60%
Aug16	1.54	-1.88%
Sep16	1.51	-1.78%
Oct16	1.54	1.98%
Nov16	1.54	-0.08%
Dec16	1.6	4.50%
Jan17	1.61	0.59%
Feb17	1.58	-1.87%
Mar17	1.79	13.29%

Spike in march is mostly due to the Brazilian poultry woes of late... Poultry is looking like a good investment given the current climate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ry-for-chicken

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...market-plants/ - Brazils poultry industry has been absolutely crushed and their reputation is gone.

[Lola]

Our weakening dollar alongside global poultry prices that are set to well exceed the first half, looks like a very positive sign for Tegel.

Matrix/Chart below was taken from IMF website last month [ I have amended to NZD ]

Month	Price	Change
Apr16	1.62	-
May16	1.64	1.61%
Jun16	1.59	-3.26%
Jul16	1.57	-1.60%
Aug16	1.54	-1.88%
Sep16	1.51	-1.78%
Oct16	1.54	1.98%
Nov16	1.54	-0.08%
Dec16	1.6	4.50%
Jan17	1.61	0.59%
Feb17	1.58	-1.87%
Mar17	1.79	13.29%

Spike in march is mostly due to the Brazilian poultry woes of late... Poultry is looking like a good investment given the current climate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ry-for-chicken

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...market-plants/ - Brazils poultry export has been absolutely crushed and their reputation is gone.

All interesting and seems positive but why has chairman gone? Silence is not golden when a so called champion of transparency etc and compliance ethics suddenly effs off
NOT GOOD Enough MR OGDEN

[peat]

Our weakening dollar

... increases food costs..... as its all imported.

[Joshuatree]

http://twincitytelegraph.com/value-c...mited-nzsetgh/

Thanks M/winner ; 1 being extreme undervaluation ; 100 being over with TeGeL coming in at 19. Just need the low pricing in NZ to end ( red meat gone up a lot looking in supermkt lately)but the cheap feed cycle, over production comp with Inghams etc looks like it could be here a while with those re 700,000 sq km of extra feed being harvested globally. So is it all about getting the exports cranked up to salvage the s/p?

[Sideshow Bob]

... increases food costs..... as its all imported.

Export sales were only forecast at $106m for 2017 and imagine in the Pacific wouldn't be trading in USD's but most likely NZD's. Also the shipping costs would become more expensive, both for exports and incoming feed.

[hardt]

Export sales were only forecast at $106m for 2017 and imagine in the Pacific wouldn't be trading in USD's but most likely NZD's. Also the shipping costs would become more expensive, both for exports and incoming feed.

That is almost 20% of their revenue... exports are also boosted by a weakening dollar.

Shipping costs are in NZD through NZ agents and costs have not risen... I would know, I am one.

would be interested to find out who supplies their feed though.

[bottomfeeder]

Wouldnt it be great to always get shares at a value you think is optimum. Never going to happen in today's low interest rate environment. Easier to say Im out of the smarket until some sort of logic applies to the risk being taken.

However lots of buyers and lots of sellers. I wonder just who knows what is going in at TGH.

[Beagle]

Where there's smoke there's fire. Mr Odgen left for a compelling reason(s). Market now plumbing new lows and little apparent buying support. Test of $1.00 could be coming up soon. Keeping a watch on this one for the (in my opinion anyway), almost inevitable downgrade and then eventual further disappointment with the actual result in due course whereupon I expect even more capitulation. 70-80 cents definitely a possibility and possibly where the real value lies.
Interestingly even using a basic TA technique of selling when it declines down through the 100 day MA would have got people out at $1.68, people who with hindsight would be very happy to have stayed out throughout this decline down so far to $1.08, a whopping 60 cps capital saved ! Talk about saving IPO investors bacon !

100 day MA currently $1.29 and says stay out for now.

[couta1]

Where there's smoke there's fire. Mr Odgen left for a compelling reason(s). Market now plumbing new lows and little apparent buying support. Test of $1.00 could be coming up soon. Keeping a watch on this one for the (in my opinion anyway), almost inevitable downgrade and then eventual further disappointment with the actual result in due course whereupon I expect even more capitulation. 70-80 cents definitely a possibility and possibly where the real value lies.

I feel sorry for those who have been well and truly plucked on this one. PS-Been plucked heavily myself a few times, even missing a few feathers myself over the last week on retirement stocks(Actually quite a few)

[Beagle]

It sure was a tough week for SUM shareholders last week. Busy stitching up some patches of missing fur myself