Tegel IPO

[couta1]

I doubt a few forum posts will even tickle market volumes.

All they ever talk about on hotcopper are penny stocks... 99% of posts there are pure unsubstantiated garbage...

Agree, I used to read the A2 thread a while ago, but that place really is Troll City.

[hardt]

It is a gamble, buying in here, pure and simple. Buying any share that is in a sustained downtrend for whatever reason is a gamble. TGH is in a sustained downtrend.

Best maybe to patiently wait for a return to an uptrend, no one really knows how long this capital value carnage will go on for. It's folly to deny the market trend and equal folly to try and pick a bottom SP.

Just wait, it's better to leave a few $ on the table and enter into an uptrend, than waste time and money on guessing where a SP will eventually bottom out at.

Jmho
BAA

Instead of understanding fundamentally why a stock has any sort of pattern going for it at all, we use the SP as a distinguishing factor to predict what tomorrow will look like...

[Joshuatree]

There are some fantastic authentic posters on H/C. 5 or 6 of them i keep in regular email contact with and have had some great trades due to their nous. Others like the retired young portfolio investment manager who trashes brokers reccos ; is without peer in the premium stock sector; brilliant. Just like on here you have to sort out the genuine from the not and not be influenced.

[hardt]

Tegel SP was in a gully of support around 113-114 range, F/A was looking good then, sure as hell looks good now...

The closer we get to June without word from the company, the more likely we will see this current speculation subside and simple fundamentals taking over leading up to the report - no news is good news.

I think we will see that gap above 110-114 filled over the next couple of weeks [ if fundamentals remain ] - Poop and scoop will be apparent soon enough.

[BlackCross]

"US Chicken Spot Price is at a current level of 1.240, up from 1.144 last month and up from 1.116 one year ago. This is a change of 8.39% from last month and 11.11% from one year ago"

That's from the IMF's primary commodity prices report (April 17). How relevant it is to Aus/NZ I'm unsure but I've decided to continue to hold and may even increase my holding.

[hardt]

Having a look around SharedClarity lately, their analysis is so thorough and without rhetoric, found it quite refreshing from the rest.

Their Tegel model is a wee bit more optimistic than mine, Thought I would put them to the test here, lets see how close they come to the June result.

SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET (NZDm)

	FY15A	FY16A	FY17F	FY18F	FY19F
Cash & working capital	145.3	164.8	165.0	172.6	185.5
Fixed & intangible assets	507.3	518.3	527.5	536.1	554.9
Total assets	658.3	695.6	705.1	721.4	753.1
Debt	268.5	253.0	91.1	87.8	94.7
Creditors	76.9	103.7	95.6	101.7	111.8
Total liabilities	369.8	381.8	211.7	214.5	231.6
Shareholders' equity	288.5	313.9	493.4	506.9	521.4
ROCE	7.3%	9.6%	10.3%	10.7%	11.2%
WC to revenue	10.0%	9.8%	10.6%	10.2%	10.5%
Debt to capital	47.1%	44.2%	15.0%	14.2%	15.4%
Interest cover	1.8x	2.7x	8.2x	24.1x	24.7x

SUMMARY INCOME STATEMENT (NZDm)

	FY15A	FY16A	FY17F	FY18F	FY19F
Revenue	562.7	582.9	618.6	654.6	703.3
Revenue growth	8.8%	3.6%	6.1%	5.8%	7.4%
EBITDA	61.3	75.5	81.5	85.3	90.9
EBITDA margin	10.9%	12.9%	13.2%	13.0%	12.9%
Normalised NPAT	5.5	23.7	37.8	44.9	48.5
EPS	-	6.7c	10.6c	12.6c	13.6c
NPAT	8.7	11.4	37.8	44.9	48.5

However great it would be, I am not so sure NPAT of 37.8 will be achieved - was thinking bottom end of guidance 33-35.

Seeing as I hold TGH - confirmation bias is a dangerous thing...

Looking forward to revisit come late June!

[Beagle]

I'm still expecting a downgrade. Won't surprise me in the slightest if they struggle to make $30m.

[Arbroath]

Agree. But it's like looking in the rear view mirror as chicken pricing was at 10 year lows for the just completed year. What matters is how pricing behaves in the next few months and if management can re-establish their credibility and ideally provide an explanation for the Chairmans departure. It is very poor that the NZX allow such a departure without a clear explanation. Also poor on the ex-Chairmans behalf. He would no doubt say his actions did the talking but it could be a material profit downgrade / goodwill write off dispute or just a personality clash with the major shareholder etc. All that aside I think at this price there is a lot of negativity built in to the price and investing is all about the price paid.

[JeremyALD]

I'm still expecting a downgrade. Won't surprise me in the slightest if they struggle to make $30m.

Do they have to do a downgrade annoucement before the annual result, or could they put the downgrade in the result announcement? I'm not sure how the disclosure rules work. Let's say they make 30 million profit, would they need to disclose that prior to the annual result? Surely they know at this point if they aren't tracking to forcast.

[JoeGrogan]

Do they have to do a downgrade annoucement before the annual result, or could they put the downgrade in the result announcement? I'm not sure how the disclosure rules work. Let's say they make 30 million profit, would they need to disclose that prior to the annual result? Surely they know at this point if they aren't tracking to forcast.

As per the Market Listing Rules they have a duty to disclose information that could have a material effect on the share price. A change to a company's forecast is considered likely to be material. Therefore, they would have to disclose it if they "knew" that they were going to miss the forecast. Moreover, it is probable that management already know whether the wide guidance will be achieved or not. In my opinion if a downgrade is coming it will be sooner (before the end of may) rather than just before their results announcement date.

https://nzx.com/files/static/cms-doc...05%20clean.pdf