Experimenting some TA

[Hoop]

Yes the joys of short-term fluctuations - something I own as had a 5.1% price variation so far today and is currently down 0.5% on yesterdays close.

Presumably you have some sort of initial stop-loss in mind for this trade?

As an aside, the latest version of the Tiger Technicals Filter has not flagged this as worth looking at yet, it likes the price action and the dividends, but is wary of short term volume.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah PT fluctuations...actually a bit of accidental good news I put 4.14 for the buy price at opening and just noticed I got them for 4.13....I'm a cent better off .
Yes I have stops in mind.. usually below either the first or second support down... Currently the second support down is a 3.75/3.85 zone which is a little more than -10%, that's just outside my comfortable limit.. but 3.95 seems too close and a big risk to being whipsawed out...I will play it as I see it on the day..
Actually stop/loss actions got a good mentioned earlier on in this thread.

[Hoop]

Yeah PT fluctuations...actually a bit of accidental good news I put 4.14 for the buy price at opening and just noticed I got them for 4.13....I'm a cent better off .
Yes I have stops in mind.. usually below either the first or second support down... Currently the second support down is a 3.75/3.85 zone which is a little more than -10%, that's just outside my comfortable limit.. but 3.95 seems too close and a big risk to being whipsawed out...I will play it as I see it on the day..
Actually stop/loss actions got a good mentioned earlier on in this thread.

TGR still being a friendly TA stock..The fall stopped within my comfort zone between the 2 supports (one broke)..Mistiming my buy in made my stop below the 2nd support break rather uncomfortable..TGR being TA friendly I was counting on the fall to be a throwback to test the breakout point and TGR did exactly that...nice

If TGR behaves it "should" rally to $4.40

Currently at $4.18

[Hoop]

Tassal Group closed at $4.30 Friday a gain of +4.1% from my entry point.....

On my chart it has risen up above 1 maybe 2 S&R lines so it is time to reset my stop values...
I'm working off a break of the 2nd lower S&R line for my manual stop...so the new stop is just below 4.05... and if the tentative S&R line (dotted orange line) becomes apparent I will adjust again to just below 4.14 maybe 4.10....

The next hurdle is the major S&R at 4.40..the old bull/bear line from the previous major rally....If multiple failures to break though occurs here at these major points it sometimes pays to sell, realise the gain and bugger the stops...then just wait and see and remember to buy back in if it finally breaks through (not much opportunity lost using this strategy)......but we aren't there yet so I will see what to do when (if) it happens..

EDIT:..The common Strategy for all disciplines (TA included) is to cut your loses short and let your profits run.

[Hoop]

How about the DOW and the SP500? They defy logic! Trust the charts, would you buy within a whim of an all time high? Of course you would if you knew if was going higher and higher again, but is it? Calamity is the alternative. The clock has stopped, the spring coiled beyond reason. It may break, or it may not. Trust the charts. Desperate times.

Edited my last post #74



To use the TA or chart discipline or any other discipline for that matter (Technical or Fundamental) one has to do what the discipline says...not what your emotion or the media says..

What unglues most experienced investors is a deviation away from their investing discipline leading up to and during a crucial market period (cyclic reversal)

So far... many well known and very respected Experts have used financial disciplined commonsense and have also come unglued with this current very long (7.5 years old) and unpopular cyclical bull market cycle..

We have been hearing about this cyclical Bull being in the fundamental "red zone" for over 3 years now..Some of these people manage huge investment funds and they have been coming under fire from their clients for taking a continuing bearish stance on what has been a long period of continuing upward trends for many stocks and the bullish attitude from their clients ..... tarnishing many reputations.

In a mature bear market cycle fundamental commonsense flys out the window and the famous quote from John Maynard Keynes The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. sums up the situation well...

So..

It's reasonable to expect a similar fundamental commonsense flying out the window when the Market opposite occurs, such as during the mature bull market cycle...I guess one could quote..The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay rational....and that's the scary part.............

.................After any major re-correctional event we always hear deafening noises from all the "after the Event" Experts saying "We were out before the cycle reversal occurred because the bad fundamentals were so obvious to us all, except the idiots..why didn't they listen to us?"

They probably did.... most of the time in real life many may have seen the bad fundamentals and got out..... only to re-enter because months and perhaps years went by and that market still defied it's fundamental rationality frustrating you or your clients with opportunity losses occurred from the continuing so-called unsustainable rises ..Investors and Managers coming under pressure from both clients and being underweight and holding too much cash earning next to nothing, gain a sense that perhaps it's different this time and their fundamental discipline is far too conservative for the modern times....

History has shown many high profile fund managers being caught and burnt with cyclic reversals...and from the above reading you can see why this happens..


A little "made to measure" story:

Imagine being a new inexperienced worker in this boiler room and seeing the boiler gauge enter into the red zone...commonsense reigns and this worker gets out and says, "I value my life and I'm not going to work in here until the gauge lowers down"...day after day the other experienced workers keep working earning money reciting, "no worries the gauge often does this and nothing happens", ridiculing the person and name calling... wimp..(did I hear "sheeple" ..and the poor worker becomes a social leper among the workmates.....Months go by the gauge is still in the red zone it seems the experienced boiler makers workers were right and the gauge is being too conservative ..maybe the old gauge being used on a recently new modern up tech boiler is no longer reflecting the true situation, and the workplace was always safe...

With time variable and the boiler not blowing up...these experience workers opinions now seem as being correct ...these experienced workers taking home pay each week becoming richer each week.... the worker that had the initial commonsense and not being paid..and prompted that pay will reconmense with work, re-valuates the situation...assumes the risk is lower than first thought and decides to go back to work in the boiler room...


The next day the boiler room blows up....Everyone (Media) criticises the workers.."Even a inexperienced person could see the meter was in the red zone and they continued to work on!!!!...idiots!!...what were they thinking"..



A Wall St breakout to create a record high this week??..fundamentals and secular analysis says no..with the current defying behaviour of this Bull that probably means yes it will reach a new high...The timid and the commonsense investors will lose fundamental rationality and will re-enter adding extra "available money" to the market creating buyer pressure...
Chartwise... that 2100 primary resistance area zone is very strong..will it break? Chartists crystal balls are just as unreliable as everyone else's......but if there's a primary resistance break ..it's a major buy signal...it's all "in".....again..

[Hoop]

TA kicked me out of AIR ..again!!!
Hopeless...a profit just enough to pay for my lunch.

[Snow Leopard]

TA kicked me out of AIR ..again!!!
Hopeless...a profit just enough to pay for my lunch.

TA = Turbulence Analysis ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

TA = Turbulence Analysis ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah probably....and I also hate flying..yes that's emotional...

What is not emotional is TA said sell.....I don't know the reason why and I don't really care..I try to keep to the discipline and I did well this time by sticking to the system...it said sell so I pushed the sold button..easy ...

If AIR proves to be TA unfriendly then I just walk away and invest in stocks that are TA friendly..plenty of fish in the sea..

[Hoop]

People can call TA anything they like...

15 years ago I swapped from long time FA to medium term FA with reliance on the TA discipline..Best thing I ever did..it's been highly successful for me...from my record there is absolutely no way anyone can sway me to use a different system.. Trying to keep to the discipline is my problem. Most of my failures (some damaging) have been not selling when told to..Those damaging times were the times ignoring TA sell signals in favour of applying favourable FA...then hanging on after the sudden bad news ...

This time I did well by sticking to the system...it said sell so I pushed the sold button.....When It says buy again I will buy, but in saying that AIR has mucked me around..too many unfavourable buy/sell actions and I will walk away..

TA sell signals can fail there is no 100% discipline system and some stocks are more TA friendly than others...but sticking to the TA system saves you getting caught in a gut wrenching hold/sell dilemma when the stock tanks and has taken away your capital gain...the ol' saying "you never lose when booking profits"...Not good when booking profits too early in the bull market??..no !!..This is not an excuse...TA recognises bull markets and will trigger buy signals

A TA disciplined portfolio works this way..cut your losses short, let your profits run...

[Hoop]

Buy: GEM (ASX)


Disclaimer: I still know pretty much nothing about FA but decided anyways to try out some TA almost on its own, with a very small risk per trade (I call it the “much less than 1% rule”), to see what happens. Yes, I didn't have to make an actual trade to try it out, but it wouldn't be as authentic.




One of the thing that I remember the most from that book is the bullish divergence. That's what I thought seeing here and, if my interpretation of the chart is correct, it could very well even be a triple bullish divergence! There are 3 lower low prices with their corresponding higher low MACD-Hs, as well the MACD-H breaking through the centerline between the bottoms. Such divergence is considered as a strong indicator that this might be the end of a downtrend with a major reversal on its way.

This is confirmed here with the MACD lines, MACD-H, and EMA 25 all pointing up on the weekly chart, as well as a record high MACD-H for the past 3 months. I'm not too sure about what to think about the volumes though?

I've had difficulties to pinpoint support/resistance levels but ended up with a resistance one that seems fairly solid (according to its duration and volume) at $3.6, another one at $3.8, and finally at $4.2. As such, and in the hope that this is indeed the begin of a major trend, I set my target price to $4.2. I consider the support to be at around $3, and so I set my stop loss price a bit randomly at $3.06. Well, since Direct Broking doesn't allow to set a stop loss on the ASX, I will have to do this manually. Not sure if this stop is far enough for picking up major trends?

I decided to use today's decline as an exercise to pick the best entry point that I could, using an intraday 15-min chart. Hoping that the EMA 200 would serve as a support level, I ended up getting in at $3.34 only to end up following, powerless, the price reaching the low of the day at $3.31 before bouncing back a bit. Not so encouraging for my TA non-skills but not a big deal neither.


In short, here are the numbers:
- entry price: $3.34
- target price: $4.20 (+25.75%)
- stop price: $3.06 (-8.38%)
- close of the day: $3.33 (-0.3%)


Wish me good luck!

UPDATE


From the opening posts to Blu3's Experimenting-some -TA thread (copied above)
We now have history data to Blu3's ongoing TA strategy after the initial $3.43 buy in...

In short, here are the numbers:
- entry price: $3.34
- target price: $4.20 (+25.75%)
- stop price: $3.06 (-8.38%)
- close of the day: $3.33 (-0.3%)

I hope Blu3 still reads these posts offline as the last log in was two months ago...

Have a look at the updated chart below I have drawn one orange dotted line..Blu3's target price $4.20..The other drawn lines were copied from Blu3's chart
Look how Blu3's $3.06 stops never got triggered..

Great piece of TAing Blu3...A reputation point from me for your valuable post..One for the TA Textbook...eh

[blu3]

Hey Hoop!

I've been having a little break from stocks but am indeed still reading your posts over here, thanks for your insights!

Because of this, I ended up selling everything I had, unfortunately including some picks who turned out to be not too bad.

As for GEM, I sold on the 30th of November for a marginal gain at $3.485. Even more shamefully, I do not even recall the selling reason for sure but probably was it in anticipation of this big sold out that I had planned.

I hope things go your way, cheers!