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  1. #946
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    Open to alternative questions if people think the above doesn't capture what they want to express.
    I just want to know why it exists and what it is?
    FIAT currency is not real but based on a promise from the Govt issuing it to pay.
    Crypto is a promise from noone for nothing.
    I just don't get it.
    Why was the stevo1 currency laughed at - seems just as valid as any of the others.

  2. #947
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    So there's a few people here mocking cryptocurrencies. But other than vague references to 'crash' nobody has really put any numbers on it. Then there's a one or two people making out like everything is going to the moon and there's no risk involved. I guess that is what people do be it money or religion, but I was thinking it would be more interesting if we had some type of betting (not monetary) or method of tracking peoples views on some key figures, say...


    1. How large the crypto market will get at its peak (total market cap)
    2. To what extent it will crash? (as a % from its peak cap, or total market cap post-crash)
    3. What will cause it to crash?
    4. When will it reach it's peak (quarter and year)
    5. Once it has 'crashed' per your definition, do you think the market will grow and eclipse the previous high within 5 years?


    Will base data on https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/views/all/. Total market cap is currently US$493b (but could easily be +/- $50b by the time you read this )

    Is anyone actually prepared to answer the questions above so I can record it?

    I know there are a few guys who are very knowledgeable about the tulip bubble here so I guess you could just extrapolate that growth and resulting crash

    Open to alternative questions if people think the above doesn't capture what they want to express.
    Relax - nobody here is mocking cryptocurrencies - it is just so funny to see the rampers doing their job and referring to personal attacks. But then - I guess in every bubble humankind went through so far there must have been enough people not seeing it beforehand and enough either useful idiots or crooks ramping it up, otherwise it would never have turned into a bubble.

    Just look at some of the at some stage hyped up stocks (feel free to read the PEB thread or the WYN thread) ... the names of the rampers might vary, but the jargon they use is always the same. And they all believe (or claim) that their investment can only go one direction ... upwards forever.

    Your questions only make sense if you assume that somebody can predict the future ... and the only guy they claim to be able to do that is quite busy and difficult to get hold off ... however - I shall try to respond to them:

    How large the crypto market will get at its peak (total market cap)

    No idea ... it could crash at any time. To give you however an upper limit - I would not think that it can reach a significant percentage of the total fiat currencies circulated worldwide - otherwise we would run into a full blown global financial crisis (read a bit about market theories - there are problems if you increase the demand side without providing an equivalent supply). I read somewhere that the overall monetary global value is US$215 trillion. I haven't checked this number, but if it is the right order of magnitude, than I'd assume the financial system would start creaking if we add more than say 10% without adding value.


    To what extent it will crash? (as a % from its peak cap, or total market cap post-crash)

    Depends on the nature of cryptocurrencies at that time - but if we assume that they don't change (i.e. we exclude any new cryptos which might be backed by real value), than I'd think the tulip bubble would be a good example. At that stage it was more than 99% down - and the market never recovered;


    What will cause it to crash?

    Anything can cause a hype driven bubble to deflate ... at some stage you will have a larger number of investors realising that the emperor has no clothes on. As soon as this number is larger than the number of fresh greater fools (no offence to anybody - just google the "greater fool theory") it will crumble - and then - run!

    When will it reach it's peak (quarter and year)

    LOL - this is the 100 million dollar question - isn't it? If anybody would know, how stupid would they be to tell you (or others).

    Tulip bulb bubble took (depending on what you take as start date) between 2 and 3 years. I would be surprised if the crypto bubble survives for a longer time.

    Once it has 'crashed' per your definition, do you think the market will grow and eclipse the previous high within 5 years?

    Again - tulip bulbs never recovered (and there is a real use for them) ... but it will depend on whether people discover value adding applications with these cryptocurrencies. I think this is possible, but I think as well that it is very unlikely that they will use for this any of the existing securities (they would be stupid if they did - why give money away instead of making your own cryptocurrency). On the other hand - some people are stupid, so - who knows?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 14-12-2017 at 01:51 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #948
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    I just want to know why it exists and what it is?
    FIAT currency is not real but based on a promise from the Govt issuing it to pay.
    Crypto is a promise from noone for nothing.
    I just don't get it.
    Why was the stevo1 currency laughed at - seems just as valid as any of the others.

    Bitcoin (and the like) create a platform of trust in an untrusted environment. The platform allows you to exchange value directly with other users securely, peer to peer. It does this without a central trusted authority, and without you needing to trust any other user on the network. It does this in an open network that anyone can join, no permission required. No application forms, no credit checks.

    Bitcoin has certain mathematical properties that make it scarce. Digital scarcity was probably an oxymoron prior to Bitcoin. The quintessential character of something "digital" used to be the fact it's easy to copy for near zero cost. Not the case with Bitcoin, you can't "copy bitcoins". And once a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it cannot be changed.

    Bitcoin solved the fundamental distributed computer system problem of "double spending". The basic problem is: how do you know if I spend digital money twice? If I give digital money to one merchant, what stops me from taking the same digital information, walking across the street and giving the same digital money to another merchant? Prior to the invention of Bitcoin, the only suitable answer was to send all transactions to one central authority. That authority would see the first transaction, and not allow the second transaction.

    Bitcoin exists to solve the problem of centralized authority and the resulting power of that authority.

    You are right in that there is no redemption promise. Bitcoin etc only have value because people agree it has value. There will be no government or entity that will bail out bitcoin if crashes.

    I am not sure what Steve1's idea does that is useful. From where I sit he is just talking *sht on the Internet - a lot of people do.

  4. #949
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    So can you actually use your digital currency to access goods or services (other than more bitcoin or different types of bitcoin)? Can you use it to buy groceries or "stuff" or is that yet to be organized? Not stirring just curious if it has a practical use.
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  5. #950
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    So can you actually use your digital currency to access goods or services (other than more bitcoin or different types of bitcoin)? Can you use it to buy groceries or "stuff" or is that yet to be organized? Not stirring just curious if it has a practical use.

    You can only use it to buy stuff where they accept it. And with a currency that routinely fluctuates 10% in value in a day and has appreciated in value so much in such a short space of time, it is unlikely to be widely used for smaller non-investment purchases. So now it is being touted as a store of value, a Gold 2.0.

    Also there are now fairly high transaction fees now due to scaling issues that are inherent with decentralized blockchains. Turns out that decentralization is highly inefficient compared to centralized solutions and they haven't invented the technology yet to enable the faster processing of transactions while maintaining the same level of decentralization and security.

    Then there is ethereum, which uses similar ingredients to Bitcoin but allows "smart contracts" to be registered on the blockchain (keeping in mind once it's on the blockchain, its unable to be changed). Ethereum smart contracts automatically execute when certain conditions are met, and perform a range of tasks automatically, without human intervention and can process double the transactions of Bitcoin, but is still nowhere near fast enough to reach its potential.

  6. #951
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    I'll give it a shot
    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    How large the crypto market will get at its peak (total market cap)
    This is a hard one as I am forever surprised by the seemingly unending supply of Greater Fools (I remember punters going into Finance Companies a few years ago.) I reckon there is still quite a supply of them out there. But you want a number so I'll go with double what it is today: US$1,000b

    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    To what extent it will crash? (as a % from its peak cap, or total market cap post-crash)
    Given there is nothing of substance behind Crypts I'll go with 99.9%
    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    What will cause it to crash?
    Some kind of hack that either nabs peoples wallets or breaks a block chain. This has to be a major challenge for geeks so I am sure there must be loads of IT people in dark dank rooms just trying to figure out how they can be The Person to exploit any vulnerability. They would be a legend. Anyway, it will be an event that causes a major breaking of confidence and will shake people into realising there is nothing behind their "investment"
    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    When will it reach it's peak (quarter and year)
    Given the seemingly never ending supply of greater fools. I reckon its still got a year left to run. Depends entirely on when the above happens
    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    Once it has 'crashed' per your definition, do you think the market will grow and eclipse the previous high within 5 years?
    No. Crypts will only live in history. But they will be replaced by some new thing that people can put their money into once they have recovered. The finance industry will always find ways of getting your money, like derivatives or a Crypt futures market. Bonuses will be on the line so something will rise from the ashes.

    I do see potential for blockchain technology making "legal" transactions simpler / faster / cheaper - but they will run on "money" as we know it today. For the underground / black market type transactions the usual terms of trade will apply.

  7. #952
    The Good Banksie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    So can you actually use your digital currency to access goods or services (other than more bitcoin or different types of bitcoin)? Can you use it to buy groceries or "stuff" or is that yet to be organized? Not stirring just curious if it has a practical use.
    Here's an article on companies that accept bitcoin: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...cept-bitc.aspx. There seem to be conditions around what they accept them for, and how they liquidate them.

  8. #953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Banksie View Post
    Here's an article on companies that accept bitcoin: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/...cept-bitc.aspx. There seem to be conditions around what they accept them for, and how they liquidate them.
    PwC also accepted it as payment a couple of weeks ago see https://www.wsj.com/articles/pricewa...oin-1512036992

    There is a paywall for wsj so here is the next link https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/big-...tcoin-payment/

    And of coures you can exchange bitcoin etc for fiat at an exchange. But it's far from practical and not something you would choose to do if you are part of the privileged minority that has access to modern banking services (like a large percentage of NZ)

  9. #954
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    I'll give it a shot

    This is a hard one as I am forever surprised by the seemingly unending supply of Greater Fools (I remember punters going into Finance Companies a few years ago.) I reckon there is still quite a supply of them out there. But you want a number so I'll go with double what it is today: US$1,000b


    Given there is nothing of substance behind Crypts I'll go with 99.9%

    Some kind of hack that either nabs peoples wallets or breaks a block chain. This has to be a major challenge for geeks so I am sure there must be loads of IT people in dark dank rooms just trying to figure out how they can be The Person to exploit any vulnerability. They would be a legend. Anyway, it will be an event that causes a major breaking of confidence and will shake people into realising there is nothing behind their "investment"
    Given the seemingly never ending supply of greater fools. I reckon its still got a year left to run. Depends entirely on when the above happens

    No. Crypts will only live in history. But they will be replaced by some new thing that people can put their money into once they have recovered. The finance industry will always find ways of getting your money, like derivatives or a Crypt futures market. Bonuses will be on the line so something will rise from the ashes.

    I do see potential for blockchain technology making "legal" transactions simpler / faster / cheaper - but they will run on "money" as we know it today. For the underground / black market type transactions the usual terms of trade will apply.
    Have recorded.

    On the financier comment - from 2009 the government bailed those investors out (including the largest one from your neck of the woods, $1.3b from memory). Was it a foolish investment to invest in a company with a government guarantee at higher than government bond interest rate? Or was it foolish not to invest?

    On the hacker comment - you are right, and they have been attempting to hack Bitcoin for years. Unsuccessful so far. I dunno about you but if I was going to hack something and have access to a few hundred billion dollars, I would not do it in such a way that destroyed that value. But there are some weirdo's out there for sure, I guess some would do it for the notoriety and not money. Big honeypot though.

  10. #955
    Senior Member stevo1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    Bitcoin (and the like) create a platform of trust in an untrusted environment. The platform allows you to exchange value directly with other users securely, peer to peer. It does this without a central trusted authority, and without you needing to trust any other user on the network. It does this in an open network that anyone can join, no permission required. No application forms, no credit checks.

    Bitcoin has certain mathematical properties that make it scarce. Digital scarcity was probably an oxymoron prior to Bitcoin. The quintessential character of something "digital" used to be the fact it's easy to copy for near zero cost. Not the case with Bitcoin, you can't "copy bitcoins". And once a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it cannot be changed.

    Bitcoin solved the fundamental distributed computer system problem of "double spending". The basic problem is: how do you know if I spend digital money twice? If I give digital money to one merchant, what stops me from taking the same digital information, walking across the street and giving the same digital money to another merchant? Prior to the invention of Bitcoin, the only suitable answer was to send all transactions to one central authority. That authority would see the first transaction, and not allow the second transaction.

    Bitcoin exists to solve the problem of centralized authority and the resulting power of that authority.

    You are right in that there is no redemption promise. Bitcoin etc only have value because people agree it has value. There will be no government or entity that will bail out bitcoin if crashes.

    I am not sure what Steve1's idea does that is useful. From where I sit he is just talking *sht on the Internet - a lot of people do.
    Now you have hurt my feelings.Bitcoin transactions are ratified by multi banks of computers "guessing"the complex mathematical computations consuming currently the equivalent of Irelands electricty yearly consumption(that is just bitcoin miners)The projections are that if it increases at this rate then by 2020 the ENTIRE WORLD ELECTRICITY OUTPUT will be used to "mine". Stevo1coin has got around this problem by training flocks of genetically AI engineered birds to random peck at computer keyboards until they get a match.Just an update to my ICO with the interest so far the speeds have been increased by trading in my Lambo for a Bugetti Veron

  11. #956
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevo1 View Post
    ...flocks of genetically AI engineered birds...
    Can I recommend chickens? A steady stream of eggs would add actual value the other crytpos can only dream of.

  12. #957
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    Have recorded.
    What sort of prize do I get if I am closest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    On the financier comment - from 2009 the government bailed those investors out (including the largest one from your neck of the woods, $1.3b from memory). Was it a foolish investment to invest in a company with a government guarantee at higher than government bond interest rate? Or was it foolish not to invest?
    It was foolish to invest in the first place - but greed got the better of people chasing the higher rates of interest without proper investigation of underlying fund. Once the Govt Guarantee came in that just kicked things to another level. There was also a degree of immorality in investing - getting the taxpayer to back you in an investment that was sure to fail. I cant be too harsh on that second lot of investors - it was a govt sanctioned opportunity so why not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    On the hacker comment - you are right, and they have been attempting to hack Bitcoin for years. Unsuccessful so far. I dunno about you but if I was going to hack something and have access to a few hundred billion dollars, I would not do it in such a way that destroyed that value. But there are some weirdo's out there for sure, I guess some would do it for the notoriety and not money. Big honeypot though.
    There is nothing that is "impossible" if its man made it can be man man broke. There is no point trying to hack something worth a few hundred billion dollars. Even the densest of people will realise they could never spend it and never hide it. So that just leaves option 2 - notoriety. And why not. Its not like you are going to bring a government or economy down. Just flip the bird to people who ought to have known better. Only risk is you dont want to piss off the illegals mentioned in the article above (https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/big-...tcoin-payment/)

  13. #958
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blair View Post
    On the hacker comment - you are right, and they have been attempting to hack Bitcoin for years. Unsuccessful so far. I dunno about you but if I was going to hack something and have access to a few hundred billion dollars, I would not do it in such a way that destroyed that value. But there are some weirdo's out there for sure, I guess some would do it for the notoriety and not money. Big honeypot though.
    Didn't someone steal some wallets a while back?
    The currency (?) may be secure but is everything else?

  14. #959
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    There is nothing that is "impossible" if its man made it can be man man broke.
    Nothing is 'fool proof' - you just need a better fool.

  15. #960
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    SMS verification for the re-release must have been suggested by some of the brains trust in this thread.

    And before I get bombarded with investments into ****coins I only have limited fools funds to invest, once I've cleaned up on Electroneum then I'll be ready and eager.

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