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  1. #231
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    There are two main ways Lithium is produced, Hardrock mining of spodumene or via brine pools. Clay is currently a bit of a pie in the sky in my opinion.

    The value add is in downstream processing converting Spodumene to Hydroxide compared to direct shipped ore which is currently processed in China.

    Lithium Hydroxide is what EV battery manufacturers want, the easiest way to get Lithium Hydroxide is via Spodumene not via Brine which needs to be converted to Lithium Carbonate first.

    The world leaders in Lithium are Gangfeng (China) and Albermale (NYSE), as well as SQM (NYSE).

    My picks as follows, I'm not currently buying more of these after they have run, but I will happily continue to buy on any pull backs.

    PLS.ASX:
    Owner of Pilgangora Mine in the Pilbara, WA. Recently acquired AJM's asset next door after AJM went bust, doubling its hard rock deposit. Has a sizeable debt recently refinanced at lower rate. Not cashflow positive but close.

    MIN.ASX:
    Diversified Miner, high cash balance, Iron ore/mining services business generates lots of cash. Has two major hardrock resources in Mt Marion in Kalgoorlie 50% JV with Gangfeng, and Wodgina in the Pilbara 40% JV with ALB (currently on C&M). Has Hydroxide plant being built under the 40% JV with ALB.NYSE in Kemerton. Owns 6% of PLS.

    AVZ.ASX:

    Exploration/Potential Miner in the Congo. This is a gamble on a stock in the DRC, a dangerous and corrupt country, but it is the biggest hardrock resource in the world, also has sizeable tin deposit. Just signed OT with Gangfeng, waiting on financing.

    FYI: The lowest cost mine I believe is greenbushes (Talison JV) which is owned jointly by ALB, IGO.ASX (recently bought into the JV) and Tinaqi (China).

    I hope this helps someone.
    Last edited by Norwest; 20-01-2021 at 09:52 AM.

  2. #232
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    Thanks Norwest.Re AVZ.I along with a few others had money in WFE...supposedly had a huge find and potential for cobalt.In the DRC.
    WFE could not convince either the oz or brit exchange to accept rational for listing.Reasons are probably clear.Good luck.
    I note you joined last year.,..please reply privately cheers troy.
    btw ...have you observed AGY NMT LPD in recent times.
    Yes I own all 3.
    Last edited by troyvdh; 20-01-2021 at 09:42 PM.

  3. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    I've got some JRL and FYI.
    There could be an absolute frenzy coming in some of these stocks.
    Look up Tesla millionaires lol.
    It's better to be smart than to be lucky....
    cc

  4. #234
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    Hi Norwest
    Have you looked at Geo40?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117...othermal-fluid

  5. #235
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    thanks for sharing that Kiora, Im in taupo. For me if they get listed it could be an opportunity. However, I bet the pilot plant is tiny with no hopes of scaling up...

    the only companies i see succeeding are ones that can produce lithium on a big scale to attract agreements with car manufacturers etc. NZ being the furtherest away from any potential market apart from itself, it would be even harder to make money given the distribution and logistics cost.

  6. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by troyvdh View Post
    Thanks Norwest.Re AVZ.I along with a few others had money in WFE...supposedly had a huge find and potential for cobalt.In the DRC.
    WFE could not convince either the oz or brit exchange to accept rational for listing.Reasons are probably clear.Good luck.
    I note you joined last year.,..please reply privately cheers troy.
    btw ...have you observed AGY NMT LPD in recent times.
    Yes I own all 3.
    AGY - brine which doesn't interest me. There has been a lot of push back around water usage in brines by the local communities, plus brines produces Lithium carbonate.

    NMT - When they sold there Mt Marion interest to Gangfeng/MIN at least they had a retainer for their planned hydroxide plant, but I don't know if this will get off the ground anytime soon, I've been following the progress closely around Tinaqi's hydroxide plant expansion in Kwinana and ALB/MIN hydroxide plant in Kemerton both of them were hit by temporary delays/downscaling. It's not cheap or easy to build a hydroxide plant.

    LPD - low grade, small resource.

    I don't think you'll go wrong with your choices in the long term but I do think will be some consolidation of resources/production at some point.

    AVZ is definitely a high risk gamble in every sense of the project and it could very well go bust I've already resigned myself to that fact, but the rewards will be amazing if Nigel and the AVZ team can pull it off. The underlying Manono resource is so big it will get developed into a mine at some point this decade - Hopefully that's by AVZ and not someone else!

    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Hi Norwest
    Have you looked at Geo40?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117...othermal-fluid
    It's interesting, but that's even more pie in the sky than the lithium from clay's in my opinion, I don't see how well it would it work at scale? They are targeting Lithium Carbonate not Lithium Hydroxide. Although Lithium is used for a lot of things, the demand driving the growth is for EV batteries and this needs hydroxide... anything that uses generates carbonate has to be processed further to get to Hydroxide.

    Here is a great article that explains what I mean with some good graphs as well: https://newagemetals.com/lithium-sup...rock-vs-brine/

  7. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norwest View Post
    AGY - brine which doesn't interest me. There has been a lot of push back around water usage in brines by the local communities, plus brines produces Lithium carbonate.



    AVZ is definitely a high risk gamble in every sense of the project and it could very well go bust I've already resigned myself to that fact, but the rewards will be amazing if Nigel and the AVZ team can pull it off. The underlying Manono resource is so big it will get developed into a mine at some point this decade - Hopefully that's by AVZ and not someone else!


    What are your thoughts on the recent progression for AVZ ive been in since 2016 with a average buy of 6c was always a ten year plan for me back then too.
    With offtakes for 80% of SC6 product and a tin offtake in place, appointment of a new CFO. I personally feel like it is being de risked every announcement. I do like to take into account peoples views however.
    But from where i currently sit it looks like AVZ will be going to mining by 2023.

    Where do you think they sit as far as a market CAP and share price?
    I believe even with current risk involved it is under valued, And with financing to be announce soon I expect the share price to skyrocket as the project is further de risked

    Any thoughts?

  8. #238
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    Yes the offtake's have been great announcements with some big players, however as you rightly point out the big thing that will light this fire will be the financing and more specifically the terms of the financing. I would have preferred a JV with a big player with big pockets like Albermale, CATL etc to de-risk the financing, but we seen what the FIRB thought of that last year, so I can't see that happening and instead it looks to be pure debt financing rather than a JV.

    If the Manono project was in a stable jurisdiction then they'd already be mining. The biggest risk to this project is where it is located, not just the DRC but where about's in the DRC it is.... its in an unstable region of an unstable country.

    Ken @ Pilbara Minerals got a great financing deal last year for the takeover of Altura's mine, how many points difference do you add to this for such an unstable location? The answer is a lot. Nigel has been ticking all the boxes thus far, we'll soon see if he can pull a great deal for the terms on this financing.
    Last edited by Norwest; 28-04-2021 at 09:19 AM. Reason: typo

  9. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    I've got some JRL and FYI.
    There could be an absolute frenzy coming in some of these stocks.
    Look up Tesla millionaires lol.
    Reading you loud & clear ..

    could be faster than a rat up a drainpipe too ..

  10. #240
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    Some profit taking today but it's been a great recent run for FYI ...

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