LITHIUM Stocks fertile ground

[Muse]

I saw the proposed changes are long dated, but I couldn't help but wonder if it will cause a serious rethink amongst multinationals and where they deploy capital to develop further resources. Many have been burnt over the years, particularly in Argentina, as nationalisations unfold. Sure programmes already beholden to sunk costs will continue to get developed and resources explored where infrastructure has been put in place, but greenfields could very well be paused or scrapped. A few of those and a supply imbalance could grow within the decade.

And when did nationalisations only stop at one thing...Brazil rich in other resources like copper. Should they extend the goalpost to other minerals, that'll only exacerbate the flight of capital from the country.

Just my musings...still has to get passed into law, multinats need to contemplate.

[SBQ]

I saw the proposed changes are long dated, but I couldn't help but wonder if it will cause a serious rethink amongst multinationals and where they deploy capital to develop further resources. Many have been burnt over the years, particularly in Argentina, as nationalisations unfold. Sure programmes already beholden to sunk costs will continue to get developed and resources explored where infrastructure has been put in place, but greenfields could very well be paused or scrapped. A few of those and a supply imbalance could grow within the decade.

And when did nationalisations only stop at one thing...Brazil rich in other resources like copper. Should they extend the goalpost to other minerals, that'll only exacerbate the flight of capital from the country.

Just my musings...still has to get passed into law, multinats need to contemplate.

Large international corporations won't dick around. A move like this (state control of the lithium assets) will only deter foreign investment. What I find interesting is Boric (Chilean PM) must be blind because the while western nations are on track to develop their own lithium reserves. 5 years ago 'Lithium Triangle' produce the most lithium in the world. Now Australia holds that position being #1 largest producer. Joe Biden's IRA puts $$ into decarbonising the economy and massive gov't hand outs to lithium miners and refiners in America. Just yesterday Justin Trudeau announced a mega deal with VW to build a Gigafactory battery plant in Canada that once completed (2027), would be $200 BILLION to the Cdn economy. This is big time development and like I say before, all bets are with Western nations.

Since you mentioned Brazil, there's a lithium miner i've been following called Sigma Lithium (Canadian miner) that has announced their Brazil lithium spodumene mine has gone online. But who's to say Brazil will do the same as Chile has done? We are speaking S. America here where those countries have been known to use socialism to control specific assets. Chile's copper mining operations are already 'state' owned and operated.

As for ALB, they're far far more diversified and have major joint ventures with Mineral Resources in Australia. Most of their refining and conversion process is done China, and a lithium restart mine in King Mountain is on track for ALB. Here's the thing, ALB's brine lithium extraction in Chile is the lowest cost producer in the world. What Boric is doing is the gov't wants to ban the use of evaporation ponds in favour to DLE. But estimates show the cost of DLE is on the order of x 2 times to extract lithium from brine than from evaporation. So you have to question, will any foreign company look at setting up DLE in Chile when current hard rock spodumene is most cost effective? Also don't get fooled about all this DLE talk; fact is there are NO large scale, commercial size operations that are extracting lithium from brine using DLE. We can look at examples nearly 10 year ago with Australian company CTR in testing DLE at the Salton Sea in California. GM has a joint venture with another company that is again, retesting DLE at the Salton Sea brines. It seems there's no shortage of all these companies claiming proprietary methods in doing DLE, yet... none of them have been proven or in full large scale operations that we see with current large scale hard rock mining and evaporation pond lithium extraction.

[Muse]

In my second post, when I said Brazil, I meant Chile.

An aside, the sheer scale of lithium batteries poses an interesting issue.

In Europe and much of the world most discarded batteries are incinerated and 90% of their mass is released into the atmosphere. Volkswagen alone estimates it will have 1 million tonnes of discarded batteries by 2030, let alone all the other players. It's a massive issue. Battery recycling ought to be feasible - some sort of solvent based approach extracting the lithium and nickle - and preventing the the release of toxins. I came across Neometals who claim to be on the case but get the heeby jeebies from them...cash balances have halved, keep missing timelines, need a capital raising, and have seen some unusual videos from mgmt that came across as snake oil salesmen. None the less an interesting part of the value chain to watch, although it may just winding up being some boring, low margin capital intensive tolling operation.

Still sitting on my liontown stake. I've had 4 shares double in value from last year - all have been on the ASX or had a primary listing there. Universal Store (fully realised), Liontown, Elmo (realised), Smartpay, and Acrow (well a bit longer than 12 months but point stands).

Think I need to spend more time hunting ASX shares.

[SBQ]

In my second post, when I said Brazil, I meant Chile.

An aside, the sheer scale of lithium batteries poses an interesting issue.

In Europe and much of the world most discarded batteries are incinerated and 90% of their mass is released into the atmosphere. Volkswagen alone estimates it will have 1 million tonnes of discarded batteries by 2030, let alone all the other players. It's a massive issue. Battery recycling ought to be feasible - some sort of solvent based approach extracting the lithium and nickle - and preventing the the release of toxins. I came across Neometals who claim to be on the case but get the heeby jeebies from them...cash balances have halved, keep missing timelines, need a capital raising, and have seen some unusual videos from mgmt that came across as snake oil salesmen. None the less an interesting part of the value chain to watch, although it may just winding up being some boring, low margin capital intensive tolling operation.

Still sitting on my liontown stake. I've had 4 shares double in value from last year - all have been on the ASX or had a primary listing there. Universal Store (fully realised), Liontown, Elmo (realised), Smartpay, and Acrow (well a bit longer than 12 months but point stands).

Think I need to spend more time hunting ASX shares.

Lithium recycling will come just how aluminium soda drink cans are recycled for the past 20 years when they never did in the 70s. ALB has invested in lithium recycling in their 'Flex' facilities. For individual lithium recycling plays there's LICY (Nasdaq) which is building a plant in Rochester NY. The difficult effort that is required to mine and refine lithium should provide mandatory recycling.

[Muse]

According to the AFR another mystery bidder has lobbed in a bid for Liontown.

EDIT: which I now see LTR has pulled cold water on.

[SBQ]

According to the AFR another mystery bidder has lobbed in a bid for Liontown.

EDIT: which I now see LTR has pulled cold water on.

I don't understand the bids as Elon Musk explained, the problem with lithium is not the supply but the lack of refining capacity (which China owns 80% of that market).

Many many months ago Musk rumoured a bid on Canadian Lithium miner Sigma Lithium, which operates a hard rock mine Brazil. No words since and not likely to happen. Tesla has a long history of making bids on lithium companies but they all fall short on the acquisition.

[nztx]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-...nery/102298280

Albemarle set to double production of lithium hydroxide at Kemerton refinery in WA's South West


US company to expand WA refinery as "every man and his dog" turns to lithium

[SBQ]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-...nery/102298280

Albemarle set to double production of lithium hydroxide at Kemerton refinery in WA's South West


US company to expand WA refinery as "every man and his dog" turns to lithium

Smart move for ALB as they diversify away from Chile. I have sold the May 5th 175 PUTS that expire this Friday so will see if I get assigned. This is a hold for the next 5+ years.

[Muse]

Divested my LTR just now for A$3.00. Combination of factors. Wish the company well.

[JBmurc]

much love in the Lithium space ... my LRS holding making new short term highs again today ... 150%+ on less than a year ago lows .... and not looking like slowing down .... 20c+ mid year target looking good