KPG - Kiwi Property Group Limited

[bull....]

traditionally property companies should trade at a discount to NTA , if they trade above they are expensive. in a reflation environment lease duration is important in valuation of these stocks. i dont hold any of these types of stocks at the moment due to the reflation trade

[fungus pudding]

traditionally property companies should trade at a discount to NTA ,

Why should they?

[winner69]

we think the 10 yr black hole has taken money out of the comp props... look at the 5 year chart. overseas investors are moving money at this time in the cycle.

Your maths guru done any more work

Share price /10 year relationship playing out

[Rawz]

Experience so far says kiwis like good malls so any effects are a temporary small reduction in immediate earnings. That should be a few cents reduction in fair value not ten's of cents. If mass vac. Is mainly done in 2021 then 2022 impacts should also be limited. I'm struggling to see how there would be 2023 and onwad effects. Also when those exposed to the border and their immediate families have a vac. another layer of protection against lockdowns is added.

I agree. I went to Sylvia Park on sunday once Auckland went back into level 2 and guess what- it was pumping. People couldnt wait to get back to Auckland's best mall after the 6 day lockdown. 2022 we are likely to see little to no lockdowns.

And KPG has traded at one point each year above its NTA for the last 5 years.

KPG oversold.

[Beagle]

Probably is oversold, (and people's comments about vaccine roll-out are fair enough), but the speed of the increase in the 10 year Govt stock rate has spooked investors, was under 1% just on a month ago and 1.9% yesterday...that rate of increase is "interesting" to say the least. Where will the 10 year rate be at year end, 3% ?, maybe even 4%

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think the era of lockdowns is quickly coming to an end Beagle, we are talking a few more months and then we will be well into vaccination of general population making lockdowns increasingly unnecessary. I think we all have been looking past CV anyway to see what good value KPG is under normal operating conditions, and paying out 90-100% for the divi.

I'm actually more curious about the office portfolio in the era of increased work-from-home environment persisting - but I don't see it as a major issue as the location of the office towers are all prime real estate which in a worst case scenario could be repurposed to residential (adding to KPGs nascent build-to-rent residential ambitions).

Also worth remembering the Palmerston North Mall is currently on the market.

[Beagle]

Yeah I hear ya....I think you might be talking me around. I don't know how others feel but I'm finding it hard to work up much appetite for fresh share investment allocation at the moment after 6 straight weeks of losses on the NZX. To me I feel at this moment in time, I'd like to see some forward momentum in my portfolio to give me confidence to invest more. (Sitting on a fairly high cash allocation which ahs been a good thing in recent weeks).

[Rawz]

Yeah I hear ya....I think you might be talking me around. I don't know how others feel but I'm finding it hard to work up much appetite for fresh share investment allocation at the moment after 6 straight weeks of losses on the NZX. To me I feel at this moment in time, I'd like to see some forward momentum in my portfolio to give me confidence to invest more. (Sitting on a fairly high cash allocation which ahs been a good thing in recent weeks).

I was going to throw a Warren Buffett quote at you regarding your trepidation for investing your cash, but im sure you have heard them all..

There are some deals in the market on some good performing companies. These deals wont be around for long. TRA is a prime example. Could have purchase $3.11-$3.12 last week. Then another profit upgrade and the buying opportunity is gone(ish).

KPG, OCA, MHJ, FPH good value imo.
EVO and TRA was good value last week.

[Joh13]

KPG seems pretty good value at the moment. I’m in for a small parcel.

[Beagle]

WHS look like they are about to post some startlingly good numbers. Bought a few more this morning. Agree this one is fair - good value at present but lets see where the 10 year Govt stock rate settles.