KPG - Kiwi Property Group Limited

[Waltzing]

well MR B i dont think you made a mistake. Our average price over 3 portfolios is about 1.24 but we still see the 10 year hitting this sector pushing it down for short periods of time.

Bonds are going to rebalance in there favour and overnight the US 10 year performed strongly. Your favourite man MR S will know doubt beat the drum on CNBC any time now.

1.12 was its recent bottom?

Its a long term defensive stock not a stock for high growth or a big share price rise.

We havnt bought enough travel and we are looking to increase travel stocks very shortly as our picks have moved into profits.

[value_investor]

Well that update really validates me starting to buy this last year from $1.00. Went to Sylvia Park recently and the place is hustling and bustling.

I'm happy to keep holding, expecting some big revaluation gains in the portfolio when it comes to it. Also interested in the build to rent opportunities and the future plans with Drury.

Disc: Have continued to build this position and will continue at current prices (as long as things don't get too crazy).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Latest GDP report for December quarter is out. Key quote for KPG:

"On an annual basis, retail was up by 2.5 percent"

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Kiwi Property today announced the outcome of its draft property portfolio valuations, delivering an expected fair value gain of $100 million (+3.1%) for the six months ending 31 March 2021. The Company’s mixed-use, office, retail and other properties will be worth $3.3 billion following confirmation of the asset valuations at year-end.

Following the latest valuations, the overall fair value gain on Kiwi Property’s portfolio for the 2021 financial year is approximately $110 million (including the $9.2 million uplift recorded in the six months to 30 September 2020).

Chief Executive Officer, Clive Mackenzie said it was pleasing to see a rebound in the Company’s asset values, following a stabilisation of trading conditions.

“While COVID-19 continues to impact the sector, the outlook is far more positive than it was when valuations were last undertaken in September 2020, especially with the vaccine rollout now underway. Encouragingly, recent transaction evidence suggests investor confidence has returned to the property markets, allowing valuers to remove ‘material valuation uncertainty’ clauses across many of our assets.”

The draft valuations are expected to result in the following movements over the six-month period ending 31 March 2021:

Mixed-use portfolio
Draft valuations show the Company’s mixed-use portfolio, which comprises Sylvia Park, Sylvia Park Lifestyle, LynnMall and The Base, has experienced a fair value increase of approximately 2.4% or $38 million to $1,623 million. The weighted average capitalisation rate for these assets has firmed four basis points to 5.79%.

Office portfolio
Kiwi Property’s office portfolio proved the most resilient of the Company’s asset classes, with draft valuations increasing approximately 5.4%, or $52 million, to $1,002 million. The uplift is assisted by a 28 basis point capitalisation rate firming to 4.99%, with the Company’s Auckland assets growing in value by 5.6%, and Wellington assets increasing 4.9%.

Retail portfolio
Kiwi Property’s retail portfolio experienced a fair value decline of approximately 1.7% or $8 million to $461 million, according to the draft valuations. The reduction in portfolio value was generally driven by an increase in seismic-related capital expenditure and a softening in market rents. On a positive note, the weighted average capitalisation rate of the Company’s retail assets has firmed 30 basis points to 7.75%, assisted by stronger than expected retail sales.

Other properties
Kiwi Property holds a portfolio of other properties, outside of its investment-grade assets, including the Company’s Drury and Sylvia Park industrial holdings. This portfolio recorded draft valuation growth of approximately 8.0%, or $18 million, to $245 million for the period.

Overall portfolio
Following the draft valuations, the capitalisation rate of Kiwi Property’s investment portfolio has firmed 18 basis points, from 6.00% to 5.82%, while net tangible asset backing per share will increase by approximately six cents from $1.29, as at 30 September 2020, to $1.35.

The draft 31 March 2021 property valuations are determined by independent valuers and are subject to external audit. They will be confirmed in the Company’s audited financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2021, scheduled for release on
24 May 2021.

>Ends

Note:
The fair value movements referred to above relate to independent property valuation movements and exclude any fair value movement arising from accounting for lease liabilities under NZIFRS16.

[Habits]

Kiwi Property portfolio valuation update - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369731

Very promising +100m but still lower than the 2020 -ve reval of -290m. Leaves room for more growth.
Cap rates are moving in the right direction.

[FTG]

Fibonacci "Poetry in Motion" on the chart makes one a little cautious however. The weekly chart technicals don't look so strong to me (yet?)

Sorry. No chart inserted here.

High of $1.70 (2/9/19)
Low of $0.74 (24/3/20)

That 96 cent downward swing has now been corrected a PERFECT (to the cent) 61.8%....
Taking it to $1.33 (11/11/20).

Now, for the last 4 1/2 mths it has basically been treading water, clearly respecting that level & coiling up for the next move.

What will it be; Red or Black ?

[Waltzing]

love fibonacci

we bought more even though comp props get hit by the 10 YR.

overnight inflation in the US did not drive the 10 YR up.

a look back at the comp prop over the last 17 years against the 10 year provides an interesting back drop to where we are now.

if rates stay down expect this stock to move up but its a buy big at 1 - 1.10.

Its a defensive trade.

[Waltzing]

comp props holding up even as the US 10 year moves back up 1.7%

some defensives should come into play as some future investment funds that might have gone to rental move to commercial.

Gmt moving back up 2.27..big move from a month ago considering the interest rate rises.

Perhaps NZRB might have to consider negative rates again if Banks decrease loans and increase holdings at the RBNZ.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370146

interesting development. I like the mixed use nature of the proposal with residential (build-to-rent?) getting a mention.

[Waltzing]

surely even with the 10 year pressing down on all assets as insto will move with the excepted status quo which seems ridiculous, this stock is just a bargin.

Thinking of proposing to our team we move into KPG over ARG which we have weight 10% from defensive last may.