KPG - Kiwi Property Group Limited

[Habits]

"Why-cuto (Waikato)"

think the malls have sucked up the best of the best , the empty shops are mostly small ones. Munns clothing being one of the bigger ones.

Other than that traffic is as busy as ever and think city parking is free for the first 2 hours.

Big ring roads under development for hamilton opening up the region to much faster transit by the end of 2022.

You mean horrible black tarmac with stinky polluting machines making loud noises that scare the fragile defenseless animals... lolz

[fungus pudding]

Will they make it easier to get into Hamilton or easier to avoid Hamilton?

Probably both from my experience of ring roads.

[RTM]

Well...its better news than him selling his holding...or a portion of it.
Even if it was to build a deck.
i am encouraged.

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/374993
Hmmmmm.

[Rawz]

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/374993
Hmmmmm.

This is VERY disappointing to see

[Beagle]

Maybe they had a look at the email I sent their head of investor relations and thought...you know what...the hound dog is right, this has been a shocking long term hold and the price has gone nowhere in the last decade, (gone backwards when taking inflation into account)

Not sure why the Westfield owned mall at Newmarket is struggling so much, could be the car parking building isn't free, could be the rents are so high the prices at shops there are too expensive, don't know but what I do know with KPG is this, its very, very easy to get "dazzled" by the jewel in their asset crown which is Sylvia Park and forget that they have at least their fair share of malls that are performing very poorly.

Essentially they don't want you to focus on that...lets just sell them and sweep the problems under the carpet and tell everyone that everything is going to be great with new developments...build them and they will come...what could possibly go wrong ? Maybe we are at "peak mall" and oversupply is a problem going forward ?

Anyone noticed how its one thing to want to sell the doggy malls, but quite another thing to actually sell them ? On the recent investor call they mentioned further write-downs to tired old malls post balance date and I guess this is to try and get real with their current values (even though they have fallen tens of millions in recent years already) in an effort to do a deal...and yet a deal still eludes them so maybe the malls they are trying to sell are even worse than they are letting on ?

Does management share selling suggest they are really struggling to sell these old malls and there are even more write-down's coming to effect sales ?

We all know the fortunes made with RYM in the last 2 decades and SUM, up 1000% in the last decade alone so just for some super long perspective I asked the question how does KPG's model work over the long term for investors ?

Well imagine my shock when I bought up the long chart on MSN Money and discovered they were $1.18 in 1994, 27 years ago !!
I went onto the Reserve Bank inflation calculator and brought up the housing index for that 27 year timeframe and $1.18 invested in housing in 1994 is now worth $6.90 and yet KPG is still $1.18. WOW !!

My experience tells me the best guide to the future is the past and KPG's track record is that investors are doing very, very poorly.

I think I'll leave it at that. I'm not trying to talk it down. I'm just posting objective long term analysis of whether KPG works or not for property investors.

[simla]

Just to put another possible viewpoint, they have been paying dividends in addition to the share gains. Before covid they paid about 7 cents, and I don't know how to look up old dividends before that.

But if you had put that 7 cents back into kpg over those 27 years (ie compounded at 1.07 for 27 years) your 1.18 would have become 7.38 seemingly? That exceeds the housing index - and the housing index includes last year's staggering 30% gain I think?

Okay, a simplistic calculation, but perhaps not entirely irrelevant?

[simla]

Duplicate for some reason.

[Beagle]

Just to put another possible viewpoint, they have been paying dividends in addition to the share gains. Before covid they paid about 7 cents, and I don't know how to look up old dividends before that.

But if you had put that 7 cents back into kpg over those 27 years (ie compounded at 1.07 for 27 years) your 1.18 would have become 7.38 seemingly? That exceeds the housing index - and the housing index includes last year's staggering 30% gain I think?

Okay, a simplistic calculation, but perhaps not entirely irrelevant?

Most forms of property investment will give you yield.

[simla]

Continuing to play devils' advocate:


1. 7 cents is a pretty good return on 1.18. Would you expect to get that on other property investments, after insurance rates maintenance tax and depreciation, and expect full return on the property index as well? I don't know.

2. The housing index is the most wildly successful investment in NZ for some time now probably. Is KPG doing "very, very poorly" for investors for not matching it - if indeed they have not, given my above post?

3. Housing has gone up because of short supply, whereas there is not a shortage on commercial buildings. The new 6 storey rule will surely change that a lot, and indeed KPG are looking to be part of that.

4. Anyone owning a house has swallowed ongoing expenses that would have quite noticeably eaten away on that housing index return, whereas the KPG return is after all costs (and messy involvement).

5. I could have added that the NTA on KPG is 1.36, adding another 15% return, taking the 7.38 return up to 8.5?

6. KPG were already moving to multi-use before covid, so the management are thinking ahead. One of the criticisms lately here seems to be to question if they are on the ball, but I would have said that was the last criticism you could say about them myself. They are very clever from my reading of reports.


Just some points since I am interested in this company and have investment in it.

[Beagle]

$1.18 in 1994 is just 68 cents in inflation adjusted terms in 2021. Enjoy your yield.