KPG - Kiwi Property Group Limited

[clown]

cool alright the extension even cooler is that the price has broken thru resistance at around 1.19 - 1.20 . blue skys ahead .... hopefully

Hope it goes up from here on, it did break 1.2 a couple of weeks ago and then went back to 1.8-1.9

[bull....]

Hope it goes up from here on, it did break 1.2 a couple of weeks ago and then went back to 1.8-1.9

im thinking this time different , bit more visibilty around the economy now than before.

[clown]

im thinking this time different , bit more visibilty around the economy now than before.

Let's hope so.. KPG is late to the party and looking good so far...

[bull....]

Let's hope so.. KPG is late to the party and looking good so far...

1.20 area got tested and held and has since bounced higher to around 1.24 so thats good.

what do you think gmt announced yesterday a revaluation of property up of 4.5% yesterday. KPG revalued down there property assets last march which contributed to there loss for the year so there could be a revalue up as well as the property market hasnt fallen and retail is actually stronger than last year. add in the depreciation on buildings and strong retail showing and kpg NTA is probably going to get a bump up at some stage making the discount to NTA currently even more extreme if you factor these points in.
revalue under way to close the gap , currently most property stocks trade in excess of NTA and have nearly all reclaimed there highs in share price before covid all except KPG so this is the value trade in my opinion.

[King1212]

yes Bull, i was reading GMT report too..if applied to KPG...with current NTA $1.25 then a 4 or 5 % revaluation will be up to NTA $1.30.

All property stocks are trading about 10% to 20% up the NTZ value. No doubt will be back to $1.40 soon....

[bull....]

Kiwi Property puts $170m Palmerston North's The Plaza Shopping Centre up for sale

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123...re-up-for-sale

[tim23]

yes Bull, i was reading GMT report too..if applied to KPG...with current NTA $1.25 then a 4 or 5 % revaluation will be up to NTA $1.30.

All property stocks are trading about 10% to 20% up the NTZ value. No doubt will be back to $1.40 soon....

Except APL...

[Scrunch]

Kiwi Property puts $170m Palmerston North's The Plaza Shopping Centre up for sale

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123...re-up-for-sale

It will be very interesting to see what this goes for. Back in March 2019 the estimated value was $207m at a 7.38% capitalisation rate (when 10-yr bonds were at 2%).
The current $170m value was done as at 31 March 2020 so may have been done or refined during NZ's level 4 lockdown. It was technically based on a 8.25% capitalisation rate, but would appear to be a rate nearer 10% based only on the net rentals of $17.0m quoted in the 2020 annual report presentation.

This $17.0m of net rental was up from $16.8m the year before with a quoted 100.0% occupancy, so the $37m valuation decline was based on stable vacancy and a slight increase in net rental. The valuer therefore looks to have applied significant conservatism within the valuation, which is arguably appropriate when valuing during a national lock-down.

Last time I checked a 8.25% rental on $170m was $14.0m/yr so the March2020 valuation appears to assume a $3m/yr loss of existing rental income and the applicable yield being higher than last yr (which would be appropriate if occupancy was collapsing). Stuff are quoting its nearly fully leased and potential net income of $16.7m so the valuer's negative assumptions don't appear to have come to pass.

I'm not sure exactly how valuers get their capitalisation rates, but I suspect there are links back to margins over government stock. If the applicable valuation was a repeat of March2019 but phrased as a 5.4% margin over 10-yr government bonds, the new capitalisation would be 6.0% (10-yr govt bonds are now 0.57%).

$16.7m/0.06 = $278m. While I'd be surprised if it went for quite this much, something well in excess of $170m is likely. There could be a high gain on sale in the Mar2021 full year report.

Disc holding.

[bull....]

It will be very interesting to see what this goes for. Back in March 2019 the estimated value was $207m at a 7.38% capitalisation rate (when 10-yr bonds were at 2%).
The current $170m value was done as at 31 March 2020 so may have been done or refined during NZ's level 4 lockdown. It was technically based on a 8.25% capitalisation rate, but would appear to be a rate nearer 10% based only on the net rentals of $17.0m quoted in the 2020 annual report presentation.

This $17.0m of net rental was up from $16.8m the year before with a quoted 100.0% occupancy, so the $37m valuation decline was based on stable vacancy and a slight increase in net rental. The valuer therefore looks to have applied significant conservatism within the valuation, which is arguably appropriate when valuing during a national lock-down.

Last time I checked a 8.25% rental on $170m was $14.0m/yr so the March2020 valuation appears to assume a $3m/yr loss of existing rental income and the applicable yield being higher than last yr (which would be appropriate if occupancy was collapsing). Stuff are quoting its nearly fully leased and potential net income of $16.7m so the valuer's negative assumptions don't appear to have come to pass.

I'm not sure exactly how valuers get their capitalisation rates, but I suspect there are links back to margins over government stock. If the applicable valuation was a repeat of March2019 but phrased as a 5.4% margin over 10-yr government bonds, the new capitalisation would be 6.0% (10-yr govt bonds are now 0.57%).

$16.7m/0.06 = $278m. While I'd be surprised if it went for quite this much, something well in excess of $170m is likely. There could be a high gain on sale in the Mar2021 full year report.

Disc holding.

in there annual report they used a wide range of values when looking at there inputs to come to there valuations and factored in material uncertainty so i agree they were very conservative in valuations. Im expecting the range of values used for the inputs to narrow therefore expect at some stage the valuation downgrades will come back as gains over time esp now with a bit more economic visibility.
I would be surprissed if the plaza sold for 170m or less its already on quite a high cap rate

[King1212]

$9.2 gain in valuation...that will bring NTA to around $1.26