NZK - NZ King Salmon

[babymonster]

full year going to be at the lower end i guess

[TheHunter]

What did I miss in the report that has people jumping ship? Not that I am a holder, missed the boat last buy opportunity. Thinking there might be another one coming up though.

Hi Timesurfer,

I wouldn't quite say that everyone has jumped ship but harvest volumes and therefore earnings expected to be flat YOY; not ideal for such high earnings multiples which imply high expected growth.

Long term - a well run company and promising aspirations and opportunities (site swap, offshore etc) to support future growth.

However, this growth is expected to be slow in the near and short term and IMO makes me question its current high multiples given underlying earnings from a valuation perspective.

[Timesurfer]

I agree TheHunter.
I have been watching with interest their bids to get farms up running in the Cook Straight and the bottom of the South Island. If these farms are successful I can see a big return jump, but long way off these being a success story yet.

[kiora]

I agree TheHunter.
I have been watching with interest their bids to get farms up running in the Cook Straight and the bottom of the South Island. If these farms are successful I can see a big return jump, but long way off these being a success story yet.

Not good?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12187629

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/food-safety/...lmon-products/

[mshierlaw]

https://www.mpi.govt.nz/food-safety/...lmon-products/

Two non consecutive batches from 28th December. I assume from time taken to notify the recall all batches from that production date have been retested.

[kiwidollabill]

Two non consecutive batches from 28th December. I assume from time taken to notify the recall all batches from that production date have been retested.

Most likely. Typically there is a presumtive test done on all products for Listeria, in the case of a positive a confirmation test is done to detect Listeria. Monocytogenese (the bad one)

[Timesurfer]

I was out in the Marlborough sounds fishing the past few days. Water temp up over 19 degrees. Beginning to think I might have handicapped myself in the share comp by picking this stock, but lots of year left yet.

[Joshuatree]

My broker has an extensive research note (37 pages) and a buy on NZ King salmon.
I find it bizarre that they dont mention the warming temperatures in they risks near the end.
On page 35 they talk about last years elevated temps which cause 20% mortality as if it was a rare one off and the s/p will recover upon good results this year!! To me thats a gamble, not investing imo.
New Zealand sea temperatures Sea Temperatureshttps://www.seatemperature.org/australia-pacific/new-zealand/ Temps go Jan to December only. Current temp marlborough sounds 18.3 degrees.unfort. 19 degrees looks serious?. The company are expected to update the water temp and its effects on salmon mortality.

[Timesurfer]

Yes, I have been watching the share price wandering back up. I was thinking if dipped to around $2 I'd have jumped back in, but it never quite got there. I have been reluctant to dive in waiting to hear how the temp affected this years productivity.
It will be interesting to see if the gamble of those buying up this side of any announcement pays off.
If the warming trends continue they will definitely need to prove they can get consent for, and opperate, their deep water farms.