NZK - NZ King Salmon

[winner69]

But is it healthy? Certainly not for the fish ... and not sure whether for the customer either ...

Maybe should not have used the word 'fat'

I should not have assumed that biomass is back on track means 'fatter' fish

[Entrep]

Building a position in this one. A bit risky with Blue Endeavour being key I think, also very small MC. Balances out my port which has gotten pretty conservative.

[BlackPeter]

Building a position in this one. A bit risky with Blue Endeavour being key I think, also very small MC. Balances out my port which has gotten pretty conservative.

Well, it is on my watchlist, but I didn't yet bite :

I agree - if Blue Endeavour gets not just approval, but turns out to be successful (which is by no means guaranteed), than they might do very well, indeed.

However - if it does not work out ... then I think they are still ways too expensive for a company trying to rear Salmon in ways too warm waters. The angry crowd of environmentalists does not help either ...

Not that the analysts forecasts are typically worth the paper they print them on ... but according to their forecasted EPS the three year forward PE would be 44. I don't know their working assumptions, but this does not look cheap, isn't it?

[Entrep]

Well, it is on my watchlist, but I didn't yet bite :

I agree - if Blue Endeavour gets not just approval, but turns out to be successful (which is by no means guaranteed), than they might do very well, indeed.

However - if it does not work out ... then I think they are still ways too expensive for a company trying to rear Salmon in ways too warm waters. The angry crowd of environmentalists does not help either ...

Not that the analysts forecasts are typically worth the paper they print them on ... but according to their forecasted EPS the three year forward PE would be 44. I don't know their working assumptions, but this does not look cheap, isn't it?

Thanks for your thoughts, good to know you are interested.

Craigs have them on a FY24 PE of 16.3 without Blue Endeavour unless I am reading things totally wrong (understand your comment re analysts)

But they also have the company's own internal forecast EPS at 9.62 for FY24 also, which is 14.6 PE. Where is your figure from?

[Entrep]

Got my fill and now leaving some aside for the inevitable cap raise for Blue Endeavour.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for your thoughts, good to know you are interested.

Craigs have them on a FY24 PE of 16.3 without Blue Endeavour unless I am reading things totally wrong (understand your comment re analysts)

But they also have the company's own internal forecast EPS at 9.62 for FY24 also, which is 14.6 PE. Where is your figure from?

The forward PE I am working with is the current SP divided by the average of the EPS predicted for the next three years plus the current year. You can take these numbers (for most stocks) from market screener. Obviously - the number for the current year is most accurate (as reported) and the number three years ahead is somebodies most optimistic phantasy.

Let face it - nobody knows what will happen in this timeframe with the climate, with any biological assets (diseases), with the weather (storms), and with the consumer behaviour, nor do people know what will happen with the supply and distribution chain - i.e. any prediction is a joke. As well - three year forecasts are nearly always too optimistic and frequently revised down. This way I bring a bit more reality into my forward numbers ....

Take the numbers from market screener (though I think their 2020 EPS is incorrect - need to check when it matters to me), treat them as proposed and you will reach a similar result as I did ... ;

[Monarch]

Building a position in this one. A bit risky with Blue Endeavour being key I think, also very small MC. Balances out my port which has gotten pretty conservative.

What makes you prefer this one over NZX:SAN? I looked at both and went with SAN last year, although I horribly mistimed it and paid the price . Could be interested in picking some of these up as well but one of the main factors that scared me off last time was the warm waters in Marlborough etc causing issues.

[Entrep]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/litt...0210810-p58hf2

[Entrep]

What makes you prefer this one over NZX:SAN? I looked at both and went with SAN last year, although I horribly mistimed it and paid the price . Could be interested in picking some of these up as well but one of the main factors that scared me off last time was the warm waters in Marlborough etc causing issues.

I didn't really consider SAN. This seems massively undervalued given Blue Endeav which is not a lock in of course. My port is currently pretty conservative too, so didn't mind having a punt on this.

[ralph]

I didn't really consider SAN. This seems massively undervalued given Blue Endeav which is not a lock in of course. My port is currently pretty conservative too, so didn't mind having a punt on this.

Agree totally Entrap

Its like a one trick pony NZK and a lot of similar competitors abroad not to mention the changes happening in Marlborough & more, I did have it as a buy if it got near 1.40 but revaluated then and went San as it has more options /products and even though its suffering also at the moment has more arrows in its Armory