NZK - NZ King Salmon

[Entrep]

Josh Dale has maintained his Overweight recommendation on NZK despite Tuesday’s profit downgrade due to a warmer Pelorus Sound impacting fish mortality in the current YE (January) and forward fish stocks. Dale now assumes FY22 EBITDA of $7m which is the mid-point of revised Guidance for $6.5-7.5m from $10.5-12.5m (pre-COVID EBITDA was tracking at circa $25m). The cause of the downgrade highlighted how critical NZK’s Blue Endeavour growth initiative to establish farms on the edge of the Cook Strait (cooler deeper water, faster currents) has become for the company … NZK is still expecting a decision by late March after Environmental hearings concluded in late December. The deep water farm would enable NZK to farm juvenile fish in the more susceptible westerly Pelorus farm during the winter months before transferring into the open ocean sites. Dale’s revised TP is $1.40 which incorporates 18c for Blue Endeavour (c25% of Blue Endeavour NPV).

From Craigs

[Muse]

From Craigs

Aye saw that. And jarden came out with an u underweight at 1.15. I dont believe their f23 forecast for one second and that implies a fy23 pe of 80.

Its my strong belief this company will require a capital raising in any scenario. I suppose brokers dont want to overly piss off management and the board if they want a gig.

[ralph]

Ha you're spot on they will Endeavour to get out before it runs aground .

[Entrep]

This PA doesn’t look good for Endeavour at all

[ralph]

This PA doesn’t look good for Endeavour at all

Why what have you heard !!! never did sound good around the sounds

[Recaster]

Did a brief analysis of this company back in February.

One of the things that stuck in my mind was the massive $13.5 mn cash received for closing out a forward contract early. I wrote to the company for an explanation but there was no reply. Did this place them at risk? Was it a last resort?

This amount put their operating cash flow into positive territory by a good amount. Very material and huge. I couldn't really understand the large amount.

Here's the brief analysis if you're interested. Very basic :-):

https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...aland/comments

[nztx]

From Craigs

From The Hawk:

Better fish lurking to fry elsewhere - a couple of dozen rivers over the other way

[Entrep]

That decision must be due any day now... Even if bad, must surely be close to priced in? Feels like someone knows the outcome already PA so trash.

[Entrep]

Financial results delayed (but apparently still in forecast range). Still no word on Endeavour!

[Timesurfer]

Press isn't good https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...ter-hot-summer