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Thread: FXL Flexigroup

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Back under $2 again... back to being cheapo again.

    Probably go to $2.30, go to $1.70, go to $2.50, go to $1, go to $5... These days, I don't know in what order or if these prices will occur... What I think is more sure is that FY19 cash NPAT is looking likely to be a record

    Reality (at $1.98) is certainly not reflecting records being broken, nor a company with double digit growth for FY19 (and an increased dividend of a similar, possibly more, percentage on the horizon)
    Underlined bit in the quote above nearly completed, hopefully this keeps "going to plan".

    Pretty rough come back track that is for sure.

    But far from the disaster territory that is sub $1.50
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 16-10-2018 at 12:12 PM.

  2. #202
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Hey tj ......almost same price as Heartland (I know different currencies)

    Some feat eh

    For both F19 will see record profits, double digit growth, increased divie on the horizon and both great companies.

    Just highlights when over $2 both were outrageously overvalued and sensibility has prevailed and both about where they should be. Not too much difference in their price book ratios now.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #203
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    Heartland probably very lucky to get near double digit growth while flexi almost certain (so the mid point between 8% and 13% would indicate)
    ... and we won't go into EPS growth for heartland vs FXL... FXL going to look like a superstar there
    some say HBL EPS growth for FY19 not even going to be 2%

    Record profits for both at least...

    Price to book you say? Interesting as FXL has usually traded at a much more bigly price to book ratio than HBL historically...

    One thing is for sure, one of them was certainly overvalued at $2+, but that same one had the nice warm and fuzzy story to suit (at the time)
    It certainly wasn't the come-back-kid FXL

    How contrasting the Year to date charts are... one is flat, the other down a quarter... will be interesting to see where each end up come years end
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 19-10-2018 at 01:37 PM.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hey tj ......almost same price as Heartland (I know different currencies)

    Some feat eh

    For both F19 will see record profits, double digit growth, increased divie on the horizon and both great companies.

    Just highlights when over $2 both were outrageously overvalued and sensibility has prevailed and both about where they should be. Not too much difference in their price book ratios now.
    It's a pretty horrible looking 5 year chart on this one. I'm not so sure it deserves to be at current levels but clearly the market knows more than I. Long term holding on the ASX seems to be a rollercoaster of emotions with much head scratching. When mid/short term trading, at least I welcome any volitility...

  5. #205
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Heartland probably very lucky to get near double digit growth while flexi almost certain (so the mid point between 8% and 13% would indicate)
    ... and we won't go into EPS growth for heartland vs FXL... FXL going to look like a superstar there
    some say HBL EPS growth for FY19 not even going to be 2%

    Record profits for both at least...

    Price to book you say? Interesting as FXL has usually traded at a much more bigly price to book ratio than HBL historically...

    One thing is for sure, one of them was certainly overvalued at $2+, but that same one had the nice warm and fuzzy story to suit (at the time)
    It certainly wasn't the come-back-kid FXL

    How contrasting the Year to date charts are... one is flat, the other down a quarter... will be interesting to see where each end up come years end
    FXL maybe sinking with the banks and those other dodgy lenders ...Aussies don't like these sort of finance companies at the moment ....rogues and vagabonds all of them
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #206
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    ANZ dont do YTD charts but 1 year charts look pretty ugly

    All the unfounded irrational exuberance for FXL - it was good as got a few good divies ...but had to give one back - as Mr P often said the market giveth but the market also taketh away
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ANZ dont do YTD charts but 1 year charts look pretty ugly

    All the unfounded irrational exuberance for FXL - it was good as got a few good divies ...but had to give one back - as Mr P often said the market giveth but the market also taketh away
    the 'gap' is quite something that is for sure... you're right about the aussies not being happy with the lot of them... that completely unregulated company a few times bigger than fxl that only listed a few years back (the same one that gave hundreds of dollars to under-aged, unverified, unemployed kids to buy alcohol online) has nearly halved in price in the past 2 months... but story is too strong for it to go down to any remotely reasonable valuation
    Flexi now have a good relationship with the regulators, so they say, but skeptics be skeptics
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 19-10-2018 at 03:08 PM.

  8. #208
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Getting worse by the day tj

    You were joking in one of your recent posts about $1 weren’t you?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #209
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    did not think it would sit below $1.70 for long, if at all.. but wowee... $1.59 just after the open today.

    Crazy that in almost exactly 2 months, the share price fell up to 70 cents (over a third), despite positive revisions by brokers (following a robust annual result and strong FY19 guidance) and a current mean estimate of $2.50 per share. Virtually no analyst 3 months ago expected flexi to be guiding for a potential $100m+ in FY19 either... yet here we are... $1.59 at one stage today and that dividend yield creeping ever higher.

    But at the end of the day, once the panickers had finished panicking, FXL finished down less than some financials (eg ANZ and AMP) and around about the same as most other financials so no worries... no need to get too excited yet
    except that unregulated after pay company which defied the odds to finish up bigly

    AGM in a few weeks will likely confirm how cheap FXL is
    Or explain why it has fallen so dramatically in barely 60 days


  10. #210
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    Hey winner, look at that, FXL actually up today despite nearly all other financials going down and the ASX 200 itself down over 1%... I would have thought FXL was the very first to go down on a day like today (Although nearly went under the $1.60 mark again)

    I suppose FXL's share price ups and downs really don't make sense... but then again we know it hasn't made sense for a good past 2 months now

    Even afterpay couldn't stay in the green
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 23-10-2018 at 05:32 PM.

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