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Thread: FXL Flexigroup

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    Default FXL Flexigroup

    Hi all,

    Thought I would start a thread on Flexigroup (don't think there is any other?), they have had an impressive share price rally, still trading cheap (good PE, good NTA as % of SP, good yield, and a growing company)... not to mention they now get around 45% of their revenue from NZ (and have quite a heavy presence both commercially and in retail in NZ)

    Look forward to discussing (annual results out 30 August!)

    Disclosure: Have been holding since 2014, but recently topped up at $2.40 (May) and $1.72 (July)... surely I am not the only NZ holder of this company? (nice that they pay dividends direct to my NZ bank account as well!)

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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Hi all,

    Thought I would start a thread on Flexigroup (don't think there is any other?), they have had an impressive share price rally, still trading cheap (good PE, good NTA as % of SP, good yield, and a growing company)... not to mention they now get around 45% of their revenue from NZ (and have quite a heavy presence both commercially and in retail in NZ)

    Look forward to discussing (annual results out 30 August!)

    Disclosure: Have been holding since 2014, but recently topped up at $2.40 (May) and $1.72 (July)... surely I am not the only NZ holder of this company? (nice that they pay dividends direct to my NZ bank account as well!)
    http://www.fool.com.au/2016/06/29/is...ecret-bargain/

    A reasonably balanced view from MF (who'd of thunk it?) back in June though.

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    I have a "toe in the water" just to keep a watching brief on this company... looking forward to their annual results too... you and I seem to be the only ones with it in the Aussie stock pick comp?

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    Quote Originally Posted by malus View Post
    I have a "toe in the water" just to keep a watching brief on this company... looking forward to their annual results too... you and I seem to be the only ones with it in the Aussie stock pick comp?
    Yes, Aussie is a big market (many stocks), but I couldn't resist recommending Flexi... and I am confident it will recover and produce a very good return year on year.

    I also wouldn't trust MF, as I have noticed they seem to be on (ie buy) and off (ie sell) this stock (mostly on) no matter what the price is over the past few years.

    I think after these results, this stock will gain more attention in NZ, both (hopefully) in the media and on sharetrader.

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    Very solid results, a lot of buying going on

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    Half year coming up, will be interesting to see how things are going... no profit upgrade/downgrade so can't be to bad (or to good) I suppose

    FY17 Half Year are due to be released to the ASX pre market open on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (likely around 11 or 12 NZ time)


    Mr. Symon Brewis‐Weston, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Ross Aucutt, Chief Financial Officer will
    present the results on a teleconference at 10.30am (AEST) on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (1:30pm NZ time, I will try listen in).
    A live (passive) URL link will be available at http://edge.media‐server.com/m/p/mx242w85
    An archive of the event will be placed on the company’s website shortly after the event.

    This will hopefully propel Flexigroup way above the $2.50 resistance

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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Half year coming up, will be interesting to see how things are going... no profit upgrade/downgrade so can't be to bad (or to good) I suppose

    FY17 Half Year are due to be released to the ASX pre market open on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (likely around 11 or 12 NZ time)


    Mr. Symon Brewis‐Weston, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Ross Aucutt, Chief Financial Officer will
    present the results on a teleconference at 10.30am (AEST) on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (1:30pm NZ time, I will try listen in).
    A live (passive) URL link will be available at http://edge.media‐server.com/m/p/mx242w85
    An archive of the event will be placed on the company’s website shortly after the event.

    This will hopefully propel Flexigroup way above the $2.50 resistance
    Support at $1.70.
    What went wrong.?

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Support at $1.70.
    What went wrong.?
    That's one sad looking chart
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That's one sad looking chart
    Extremely sad, and extremely crazy... every year produced a record profit, yet you wouldn't think it from the chart.
    Trading at forward PE of 7.0 right now, dividend (even with reduced payout ratio for more growth) of over 4.5%.

    Strategy day on June 22 - hoping this will stabilize things as right now the market is pricing in a large downgrade from the current worst case scenario (as indicated by flexi early May) of 90m NPAT.

    As I have stated on the hot copper form:
    "things aren't that bad in Aussie + things pretty good in NZ + FXL narrows its profit range a fraction by 2m = over 220m (about 25%) wiped of the market cap in a fortnight... This is so illogical it has to be trump mathematics?!"

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    Thanks TJ.
    I have made a note in my diary for the 22nd,and will read up about them before then, so I better understand the business.
    Their acquisition of Fisher and Paykel Finance seemed good.
    With my over weighted positions in HBL and TRA, in NZ, I have stayed away from Aussie financial businesses,however I have been known to change my mind.!!
    Last edited by percy; 05-06-2017 at 07:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Thanks TJ.
    I have made a note in my diary for the 22nd,and will read up about them before then, so I better understand the business.
    Their acquisition of Fisher and Paykel Finance seemed good.
    With my over weighted positions in HBL and TRA, in NZ, I have stayed away from Aussie financial businesses,however I have been known to change my mind.!!
    Especially at this price!
    Fundamentally, unbelievably stupid, but I agree on the chart does not look pretty, and has not done for a while.

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    So their result to 31/12/2016 was excellent.
    Then on 2nd May at Macquarie Australia Conference they downgraded ? their projected NPAT from $90mil to $97mil down to $90mil to $93mil,and the sp went into a nose dive.?
    From 4-traders.com.
    .................................2017............. .2018..................2019
    Net Income...............92.3mil............98.5m..... ............105m
    eps.............................24.9.............. 26.6...................29.1
    eps growth.............................6.8%........... ....9.3%
    PE..............................7.13.............. .6.67...................6.11
    yield............................4.92%............ 5.51%...............6,2%
    Maybe the eps growth is not as high as I would have expected ,yet the yield is good and the PE is low.
    I will watch with interest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    So their result to 31/12/2016 was excellent.
    Then on 2nd May at Macquarie Australia Conference they downgraded ? their projected NPAT from $90mil to $97mil down to $90mil to $93mil,and the sp went into a nose dive.?
    From 4-traders.com.
    .................................2017............. .2018..................2019
    Net Income...............92.3mil............98.5m..... ............105m
    eps.............................24.9.............. 26.6...................29.1
    eps growth.............................6.8%........... ....9.3%
    PE..............................7.13.............. .6.67...................6.11
    yield............................4.92%............ 5.51%...............6,2%
    Maybe the eps growth is not as high as I would have expected ,yet the yield is good and the PE is low.
    I will watch with interest.
    such a minor downgrade, such a major reaction... and 2m of that 4m downgrade was due to a timing of cash flow payment for growth in Oxipay and Ireland, so a $2m trim off the top end, no trim off the bottom end of guidance, and Flexi loses 25% of market cap in a few weeks?

    4 traders clearly still expect top end of their current guidance... which if it was true would make flexi even cheaper than already extremely cheap.
    With such a low PE market must be expecting there to be very little or no EPS growth
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 05-06-2017 at 08:33 PM.

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    In NZ they brought FPF,a very sound finance company,who are successful financiers to the likes of The Farmers' customers.
    They appear to be starting up their own business in Ireland, rather than buying an existing successful financier.Is this the case? Their Australian business appears to be under some pressure ie both solar panel and retail financing.
    In NZ I guess their retail financing will also be a bit slower with the downturn in retail.
    I notice in Australia they are looking to grow their business via brokers.Maybe online would be more profitable?
    Last edited by percy; 05-06-2017 at 09:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    In NZ they brought FPF,a very sound finance company,who are successful financiers to the likes of The Farmers' customers.
    They appear to be starting up their own business in Ireland, rather than buying an existing successful financier.Is this the case? Their Australian business appears to be under some pressure ie both solar panel and retail financing.
    In NZ I guess their retail financing will also be a bit slower with the downturn in retail.
    I notice in Australia they are looking to grow their business via brokers.Maybe online would be more profitable?
    Apparently Aussie cards business was a 'bright spot' recently, while NZ cards (ie Q card, farmers card etc) wern't so flash (although some have said this is due to a transition from Q card to Q MasterCard, along with other 'transition' stuff which are likely responsible for any 'lag' - afterall nearly 1 in 3 NZ'ers have a Q Card, but only 2% of the spend is on Q Cards - huge opportunity!). Analysts seemed more concerned with FXL's certegy - particuarly how a slow down in solar purchases effects certegy's profitability. I believe NZ leasing is going well, an AU leasing is turning around.

    Partnership with flight centre, further push into ireland (they have been in ireland for a while I believe but only now making a real push - I think after they gained some sort of license), Oxipay (FXL's online offering) and a step into brokers will all require up front investment - with growth followng a year, or a few years after (as with any quality new investment)... the 'good' news is, none of these growth initiatives are things that are 'new' or FXL - consumer and business financing is their business - they know it and want to own it.

    Some people think they paid a heavy premium for FPF, although the share price reaction immediately following would indicate otherwise (nearly twice as high as it is now!), and I believe there will be significant synergies with aussie business, likely to begin showing through this and the following years.

    They have the solid foundation, they made the hard calls last year (discontinuing low RoE or 'old' parts of the business, and the write offs that follow), now they need to execute: and with the founder, also the chairman, holding a 25% or so share (who has not sold a cent at all in the past few years)... will likely not want to see it go pear shaped long term!
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 06-06-2017 at 10:43 AM.

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    TJ.
    Thank you for filling in the gaps for us.
    FPF.If they had not paid too much for it, someone else would have brought it,because it was a great company.

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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    TJ.
    Thank you for filling in the gaps for us.
    FPF.If they had not paid too much for it, someone else would have brought it,because it was a great company.
    Reassuring to hear your thoughts on FPF... onwards and upwards till June 22!?
    Aussie GDP data tomorrow, consensus is 0.1% growth, some (like NAB) are even saying negative... at 0.1% or above will be considered a 'job well done' by me, and hopefully the market - should benefit FXL (and vice versa)

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    FXL down big time at open... even at current price of $1.60, trading at a PE of just 6.6 (yes, six point six!)... yet has grown profit every year since listing... if you think SUM other stocks have been hit a bit harder than they should have, look no further than FXL!
    Likely due to tax loss selling, and (hopefully) not related to this Thursday's update... tempting to go into an xxxl position
    (the 8 - 9 or so cent dividend likely to pay this full year is attractive in itself... regardless of the stupidly low PE)

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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    FXL down big time at open... even at current price of $1.60, trading at a PE of just 6.6 (yes, six point six!)... yet has grown profit every year since listing... if you think SUM other stocks have been hit a bit harder than they should have, look no further than FXL!
    Likely due to tax loss selling, and (hopefully) not related to this Thursday's update... tempting to go into an xxxl position
    (the 8 - 9 or so cent dividend likely to pay this full year is attractive in itself... regardless of the stupidly low PE)
    And I thought I did well picking up a parcel at $1.64 a couple of weeks back. Might have to go find some more spare change. It doesn't seem that long ago I was happy to get a small parcel for $2.20. Sometimes the Aussie market baffles me!
    Last edited by t.rexjr; 19-06-2017 at 01:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by t.rexjr View Post
    And I thought I did well picking up a parcel at $1.64 a couple of weeks back. Might have to go find some more spare change. It doesn't seem that long ago I was happy to get a small parcel for $2.20. Sometimes the Aussie market baffles me!
    Do others know something we don't about Thursday's announcement? Seems too irrational otherwise doesn't it...?

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