If it is any help I have just checked SCY finance comany's impairments.
2016 loan book $94.5 mil,impairments $1.3mil or 1.38%
2017 loan book $79.2 mil,impairments $1.2mil or 1.52% which is interesting as the loan book reduced 16.2%.
Their loan book is made up of fixed instalment and revolving credit.
While the revolving credit remained nearly the same,the fixed instalments reduced from $73.7 mil to $59.6 mil or just over 19%.
Why.? I can't believe people stopped buying on instalments,so they must have arranged finance elsewhere.
It was not a pretty picture painted on page 33 of the annual report... so far FY18 is on track to be the 5th year in a row of negative TSR... slow and steady usually does it, just not when it is in the complete wrong direction.
I could only find 1 share price that was lower than the finish price today, yet ironically their cash EPS is higher than the share price low of $1.60 in 2012...
Still makes me laugh that the share price closed at $4.36 in 2013, yet Cash EPS was less than today...
For what its worth, and right now its probably worth more than FXL's share price (but that's not hard when its sub $1.60)
Comments
- Flight Centre Card: seems to have been a fair amount of spend in NZ & Aussie related to setup, and ideally profit will start coming through from this late FY18
- branded finance programs: Bit of commentary on this but I'll touch on the partnership with Australia’s second largest dental group. "Rollout of this solution occurred in the second half of FY17 and was well received by our vendor partners. As a result of this successful rollout we have had a number of discussions with other large scale dental practices aspiring to offer similar products." - sounds interesting and could be some more deals signed, profit from this will hopefully start coming through FY18
- Since buying F&P cards 2 years ago, merchants partnered with QCard have gone up by 1000 (fun fact), this should contribute to growth I would have thought...and now that the old closed loop QCard has now been converted to QMasterCard - and the costs inccured in this mostly related to FY17, hopefully profit will start to climb nicely in FY18 and beyond (average spend is up by 9% - another bonus)
- Oxipay was launched in FY18 with 549 retailers already on board although I wouldn't expect to see profit from this until 2nd half FY18, perhaps FY19.
- FLexi-Fi (Ireland business) was setup in June 2017 with 60 stores, again probably won't see profit from this till 2nd half FY18, maybe even FY19
- New global card definitely on the way - first time I had heard of this, but the market couldn't seem to care less. Sounds like it could be a premium based card, high spend, 'high reward' card.
- They seem to be developing systems, some proprietary even, which are costing a fair bit of time and money, but are based around selling not only the best product, but multiple products (cross selling) given Flexi have a few good offerings now setup - this could be very nice as well.
- Partnership with Lenovo for Managed services - certainly not a bad thing for the commercial arm!
- The elephant in the room I think is Certegy: how 'bad' will this be (right now the market is pricing in a blood bath, and management don't sound to be terribly confident for FY18. ”Investment in Certegy during FY18 will return the business to growth in FY19" screams to me another backwards year, but things to turn around in FY19.
- Aussie commercial sounds releatively similar to Certegy - although it sounds like a turnaround back to profit growth is on the cards this year
- Fun Fact: the founder owns more shares than he did last year and retail holders have been exiting with total shareholders down 900 ish (to 11727, although well up from 2014 where they 3302 less)
For me, the key areas of growth FY18 and particularly FY19 will be:
Aussie & NZ Cards, and on a more minor scale, Flexi-Fi, Oxipay.
Why? big costs have been incurred this year, it usually takes 9 to 11 months to make a customer profitable (for cards anyway)
Consensus is for 85.9m, basically bang on the bottom of their range so right now the market is pricing in a miner fall in profit... The market is quite literally pricing in none of the above potential areas for growth... I suppose then again this is due to flexi confirming no growth expected this year... and given previous years, brokers have taken (near) the worst possible view.
Don't know how it can go much lower given the above - and ideally first half update will start to show/confirm some progress, with 2nd half really starting to take off into FY19.
One for my bottom draw that is for sure... will see how things are in February 2019. I don't quite want to say it, but I am thinking the $1.50 ish area is well and truly the bottom.
Last edited by trader_jackson; 29-09-2017 at 11:22 PM.
It was not a pretty picture painted on page 33 of the annual report... so far FY18 is on track to be the 5th year in a row of negative TSR... slow and steady usually does it, just not when it is in the complete wrong direction.
I could only find 1 share price that was lower than the finish price today, yet ironically their cash EPS is higher than the share price low of $1.60 in 2012...
Still makes me laugh that the share price closed at $4.36 in 2013, yet Cash EPS was less than today...
For what its worth, and right now its probably worth more than FXL's share price (but that's not hard when its sub $1.60)
Comments
- Flight Centre Card: seems to have been a fair amount of spend in NZ & Aussie related to setup, and ideally profit will start coming through from this late FY18
- branded finance programs: Bit of commentary on this but I'll touch on the partnership with Australia’s second largest dental group. "Rollout of this solution occurred in the second half of FY17 and was well received by our vendor partners. As a result of this successful rollout we have had a number of discussions with other large scale dental practices aspiring to offer similar products." - sounds interesting and could be some more deals signed, profit from this will hopefully start coming through FY18
- Since buying F&P cards 2 years ago, merchants partnered with QCard have gone up by 1000 (fun fact), this should contribute to growth I would have thought...and now that the old closed loop QCard has now been converted to QMasterCard - and the costs inccured in this mostly related to FY17, hopefully profit will start to climb nicely in FY18 and beyond (average spend is up by 9% - another bonus)
- Oxipay was launched in FY18 with 549 retailers already on board although I wouldn't expect to see profit from this until 2nd half FY18, perhaps FY19.
- FLexi-Fi (Ireland business) was setup in June 2017 with 60 stores, again probably won't see profit from this till 2nd half FY18, maybe even FY19
- New global card definitely on the way - first time I had heard of this, but the market couldn't seem to care less. Sounds like it could be a premium based card, high spend, 'high reward' card.
- They seem to be developing systems, some proprietary even, which are costing a fair bit of time and money, but are based around selling not only the best product, but multiple products (cross selling) given Flexi have a few good offerings now setup - this could be very nice as well.
- Partnership with Lenovo for Managed services - certainly not a bad thing for the commercial arm!
- The elephant in the room I think is Certegy: how 'bad' will this be (right now the market is pricing in a blood bath, and management don't sound to be terribly confident for FY18. ”Investment in Certegy during FY18 will return the business to growth in FY19" screams to me another backwards year, but things to turn around in FY19.
- Aussie commercial sounds releatively similar to Certegy - although it sounds like a turnaround back to profit growth is on the cards this year
- Fun Fact: the founder owns more shares than he did last year and retail holders have been exiting with total shareholders down 900 ish (to 11727, although well up from 2014 where they 3302 less)
For me, the key areas of growth FY18 and particularly FY19 will be:
Aussie & NZ Cards, and on a more minor scale, Flexi-Fi, Oxipay.
Why? big costs have been incurred this year, it usually takes 9 to 11 months to make a customer profitable (for cards anyway)
Consensus is for 85.9m, basically bang on the bottom of their range so right now the market is pricing in a miner fall in profit... The market is quite literally pricing in none of the above potential areas for growth... I suppose then again this is due to flexi confirming no growth expected this year... and given previous years, brokers have taken (near) the worst possible view.
Don't know how it can go much lower given the above - and ideally first half update will start to show/confirm some progress, with 2nd half really starting to take off into FY19.
One for my bottom draw that is for sure... will see how things are in February 2019. I don't quite want to say it, but I am thinking the $1.50 ish area is well and truly the bottom.
Good summary of the good points. Might get some more punters having a go.
Hope it gets to 180 odd soon so I can unload the rest (average price is about 70 cents anyway but I want 180 at least
The 5 year chart is really really sad eh - tells an awful story - and could get much worse
I think that guy holding so much of the company is a real hindrance as far as the share price goes. Puts off the bigger long term investors ....and the day traders aren't interested any more.
Let's hope for better times - but hope is not a strategy they say
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Good summary of the good points. Might get some more punters having a go.
Hope it gets to 180 odd soon so I can unload the rest (average price is about 70 cents anyway but I want 180 at least
The 5 year chart is really really sad eh - tells an awful story - and could get much worse
I think that guy holding so much of the company is a real hindrance as far as the share price goes. Puts off the bigger long term investors ....and the day traders aren't interested any more.
Let's hope for better times - but hope is not a strategy they say
You're right winner in many points... the day traders have only been interested in shorting, and they have so far got there way.
The 5 year chart would go hand in hand with the table on the top of page 33 - sad that flexi use to be a market darling trading at 20+ PE with ever increasing profits since listing.
Well the profits have continued to hit record highs (in some respects) but the same cannot be said for the share price or PE, the PE is now back below 7, about half that of the banks - yet you'd think with the supposedly overvalued aussie and nz housing market, and their exposure to consumer financing (of course), alongside rigorous and continuous political pressure (even more so than what is on Flexi), they'd be in a similar, or at least remotely similar, PE to Flexi... or the other way around.
However, I'm not sure how much worse it can get, 5 PE? 4 PE? if the PE contraction continues, it might just earn "the cheapest stock on the ASX award", which is hard to get with thousands of companies listed, and probably not an award management are gunning for either.
Hopefully the sad times stop soon - but management are going to have to pull their fingers out, stop continuous wealth destruction these past few years, and prove they are in a turn around with real numbers, across the board.
Last edited by trader_jackson; 30-09-2017 at 09:35 PM.
Under 6.5 PE now, crazy stuff really... as it was pointed out on HC today... Capex was 24.6m last year, and is going to be 28 to 31m this year. So Cash NPAT this year was 90.3 take the increase in capex off that and we 84 to 87 against a forecast of 85 to 90. So capex accounts for pretty much the reduction. Not great when you want to see growth, but profit is not exactly skyrocketing downwards... yet here we are, the share price continuing to go down... man even the dividend is attractive again at over 5% (despite the large cut - to help fund growth - although I'm sure this will be lifted again in a few years time)
Under 6.5 PE now, crazy stuff really... as it was pointed out on HC today... Capex was 24.6m last year, and is going to be 28 to 31m this year. So Cash NPAT this year was 90.3 take the increase in capex off that and we 84 to 87 against a forecast of 85 to 90. So capex accounts for pretty much the reduction. Not great when you want to see growth, but profit is not exactly skyrocketing downwards... yet here we are, the share price continuing to go down... man even the dividend is attractive again at over 5% (despite the large cut - to help fund growth - although I'm sure this will be lifted again in a few years time)
Sadly it is crazy indeed
Are your mates on HC having you on ...or grasping at straws to make themselves feel happier
Since when has Capex been part of Cash NPAT?
Cash NPAT trend is still F16 $94.1m F17 $90.3 and F18 $85m (maybe $90m ifyou believe in the tooth fairy)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Are your mates on HC having you on ...or grasping at straws to make themselves feel happier
Since when has Capex been part of Cash NPAT?
Cash NPAT trend is still F16 $94.1m F17 $90.3 and F18 $85m (maybe $90m ifyou believe in the tooth fairy)
Time will tell which side of the spectrum FXL ends up producing, 90m or 85m - market consensus is for near the rock bottom so you'd think it wouldn't get much worse from a bit after when they announced results, but it has, at this rate you'd think FXL were going to miss 85m - with a PE this low you one would think the market is almost certain of a downgrade announcement to come, sooner rather than later.
One trend is for sure winner, if the share price downward trend continues like it has the past year, FXL will be the cheapest stock on the asx come this time next year.
Time will tell which side of the spectrum FXL ends up producing, 90m or 85m - market consensus is for near the rock bottom so you'd think it wouldn't get much worse from a bit after when they announced results, but it has, at this rate you'd think FXL were going to miss 85m - with a PE this low you one would think the market is almost certain of a downgrade announcement to come, sooner rather than later.
One trend is for sure winner, if the share price downward trend continues like it has the past year, FXL will be the cheapest stock on the asx come this time next year.
did you get the bit about Capex not being part of Cash NPAT?
Cheap is only in the eye of the beholder
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by trader_jackson
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