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Thread: FXL Flexigroup

  1. #256
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    Borderline stupid what is happening today... although I'm not going to complain

    FXL released a rather short announcement with no financial details/impacts etc what so ever other than 'feel good' more merchants, more customers etc coming on board and the share price moves up 20%... yes twenty percent... trading volumes likely to be 5-6x higher than average.

    This stuff, in my view, being a 'given' for flexi (growing merchants, receivables, and customers) after reiterating this was the focus 3 months ago, as well as showing strong double digit growth in these very metrics at half year results... so basically announcing what is already being done, but with a few names to show for it today.

    More impressive given every other financial stock on the ASX is down today... Amazing how everyone has 'written off' the FOUNDER of By Now Pay Later and too busy chasing APT and Z1P (and crossing their fingers for a profit, one day)... FXL is just so damn cheap I suppose it was hard to keep ignoring it/placing a negative bias on it.

    Not going to get too excited as tomorrow everyone will forget about the great progress the inventors of BNPL (that lead to $7.6 billion AUD market cap: Z1P and APT) and go back to thinking it is an old tired dog with no new tricks.... the main 'new trick' FXL seems to have learned (from Z1P and APT - the market leaders, in this trick) is shout from the room tops any progress you've made, even if its pretty average progress and you have no idea if it will result in increased profitability or what... as if Z1P and APT are anything to go by, an announcement even a mouse farting will send a rocket under your share price.

    No, it is not the new APT and Z1P, it is the original 'godfather' that is about to blow the sector away (some say)... but really, its all about the story
    https://www.fool.com.au/2019/05/08/i...pay-or-zip-co/
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-05-2019 at 03:00 PM.

  2. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    $1.70 they say by the end of this week.

    Glad I didn't lose the faith when it fell to under $1 briefly just over 3 weeks ago.

    Heavy volume yesterday and the share price up bigly.

    What a wild ride it has been.

    Yesterday was very surprising (in a good way, which is a nice change over the past 6 months), and if I was APT, I would be a tad worried now - (most) existing products performing ok/well (eg NZ leasing/Certegy), new product launched, PE investor brought on board who will no doubt help (certainly can't make things worse than they are/have been!), and to top it off dividend maintained.

    Really will be back to $2.40 before we know it.
    Well the $1.70 didn't quite happen till now (2.5 months later ish) but hey, we back there after a 38 ish cent rise today (although still 1 hour of trading to go) and heavy volume.

    Have a read of this:
    https://www.afr.com/business/banking...0190507-p51kws

  3. #258
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    Fair humm-ing again today. They must have hit the right buzzwords in that last announcement

  4. #259
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    Surged to $1.97 at one stage, now back to $1.75, I'm happy with that for now - crazy what a 'minor' announcement can do, not that far off till the next dividend either really.
    As with Z1P's and APT's announcements, its all about the story with FXL's announcement.

    Back to $2 pretty soon, once this year and the one off $12m non cash write off is out the way and the story keeps getting ramped a bit more.

  5. #260
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    Geeks on fat portfolio eating crow

  6. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Geeks on fat portfolio eating crow
    All quiet on the western front over there - they just look at a chart and say "wow its gone down", yup, the past is the past, the future is the future... and a dog can learn new tricks.
    Just a shame a few 'legacy' issues keep getting in the way (eg the $12m from the TV thing - helping cement already overwhelmingly negative sentiment) on the way to a big rebound.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 09-05-2019 at 02:32 PM.

  7. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    All quiet on the western front over there - they just look at a chart and say "wow its gone down", yup, the past is the past, the future is the future... and a dog can learn new tricks.
    Just a shame a few 'legacy' issues keep getting in the way (eg the $12m from the TV thing - helping cement already overwhelmingly negative sentiment) on the way to a big rebound.
    Crazy to think just over a week ago one could have gotten FXL for a near rock bottom price... since then FXL has gone up 40% and likely to pass $2 by weeks end they say.
    Always said under anything $2 is cheap, and this is, once again, is proving to be (nearly) true.

  8. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Back under $2 again... back to being cheapo again.

    Probably go to $2.30, go to $1.70, go to $2.50, go to $1, go to $5... These days, I don't know in what order or if these prices will occur... What I think is more sure is that FY19 cash NPAT is looking likely to be a record

    Reality (at $1.98) is certainly not reflecting records being broken, nor a company with double digit growth for FY19 (and an increased dividend of a similar, possibly more, percentage on the horizon)
    Late September 2018... lets say we are at the 'go to $1' mark... so next step $5?
    FY19 not likely to be a record either, thanks to the unforeseen TV fiasco, but probably not as bad as current consensus forecast either.

    Crazy to think just over a week ago one could have gotten FXL for a near rock bottom price (being the $1.30's)... since then FXL has gone up 40% and likely to pass $2 by weeks end they say.
    Always said under anything $2 is cheap, and this is, once again, is proving to be (nearly) true.

  9. #264
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    always said it was cheap under $2, hard to believe it went sib $1 breifly!
    With it still at a low PE of 10, there is certainly more room to run for the inventor of the BNPL sector.
    An old dog can learn new tricks

    (... and now that I've posted it, it will somehow revert back under $2 lol)

  10. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post

    (... and now that I've posted it, it will somehow revert back under $2 lol)
    It's nice being right now and then aye...

  11. #266
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    S/P crossing a few M/A's again (up 11% atp) guys on this announcement.More and more retailers etc adding HUMM. This time guys?
    FXL humm sellers update

  12. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    S/P crossing a few M/A's again (up 11% atp) guys on this announcement.More and more retailers etc adding HUMM. This time guys?
    FXL humm sellers update
    Have always said FXL is cheap under $2... I am surprised after the previous humm update (where it nearly hit $2), it was as cheap as $1.50 something... it is now dead clear there is real momentum building (things are humming along, if I may)...
    They say a possible offloading of the dragging part of the business - the commercial side of things (which has been most responsible for downgrades/issues in recent times) - is on the cards...
    A removal of this would not only provide hundreds of millions in cash monies, but turn this into a bigly growth stock with a solid dividend... just like the good ol' days.
    Imagine if it was valued even remotely close to some other BNPL vendors... basically at an extra zero to the share price and it would still be cheap compared to them!

    Exciting times.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 22-07-2019 at 12:33 PM.

  13. #268
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    Hey t_j - what’s going on with FXL

    Share price lower than Heartlands again
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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