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Thread: FXL Flexigroup

  1. #71
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    Nice announcement on the final day of the FY. Just as excited about the card biz as ever.Significant new $550 mill funding facility on improved terms.
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    Last edited by Joshuatree; 30-06-2017 at 07:58 PM.

  2. #72
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    On a day when the asx lost A$28b, I thought FXL held up extremly well (with just 1.4% shaved off)

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017063...2vqxggw115.pdf

    This $550 million 'gem' probably helped - clearly the "major US bank with extensive global operations" has 0 concern about flexi, yet the recent share price performance, which wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the market cap in a matter of weeks, on the back of a 2m (yes, just 2) narrowing of profit forecast... You'd think this big US bank, who gave FXL a facility that was nearly the same as their market cap at one stage, wouldn't have done this if they believed FXL was about to hit huge difficulties (as the sharp drop in share price would also semi suggest).. probably conducted more due dilligence that I imagine Mr Market can gather as well.

    Should be $2 by the end of next week you'd think... then at least we are close to being half way to their previous high
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 30-06-2017 at 08:01 PM. Reason: joshuatree beat me to it!

  3. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    On a day when the asx lost A$28b, I thought FXL held up extremly well (with just 1.4% shaved off)

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017063...2vqxggw115.pdf

    This $550 million 'gem' probably helped - clearly the "major US bank with extensive global operations" has 0 concern about flexi, yet the recent share price performance, which wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the market cap in a matter of weeks, on the back of a 2m (yes, just 2) narrowing of profit forecast... You'd think this big US bank, who gave FXL a facility that was nearly the same as their market cap at one stage, wouldn't have done this if they believed FXL was about to hit huge difficulties (as the sharp drop in share price would also semi suggest).. probably conducted more due dilligence that I imagine Mr Market can gather as well.

    Should be $2 by the end of next week you'd think... then at least we are close to being half way to their previous high
    here we are, nearly a month on a Flexi is inching, very slowly, back to $2... passed $1.90 earlier, and that was despite AFR reporting Citi basically singling out flexigroup as having downside risk this reporting season.
    Surely $2 end of next week? (if we can't hit it in the next two and a half days!)

  4. #74
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    Well past the 60DMA atm TJ, but on light vol. Fingers and everything else crossed the momentum continues.Average t/p $2.27 on 4traders fwiw.

  5. #75
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    Results announced 15th August.

  6. #76
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    Well the day is nearly upon us, two things I'll be looking for: 90m or more Cash profit this year and Pofit outlook - will we return to double digit growth? +

    If so, a big re-rating is required over the coming days/weeks/months

    https://simplywall.st/news/2017/08/1...p-more-shares/
    You'd think with all the insider buying it wouldn't be that bad
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 14-08-2017 at 07:26 PM.

  7. #77
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    Shouldn't be any surprises in the results its been well telegraphed.May well be a lot of profit taking and the detail and outlook something to determine sentiment and create a new momentum hopefully.

  8. #78
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    Pretty much as per expected...
    Cash NPAT outlook flat or dipping. Would have thought a rise was on the cards. Perhaps just not counting chickens and may well prove to be conservative.
    Ireland looks promising with 600 retailers on trial
    Aussie card growth a highlight
    I'm buying the story. Looks very much undervalued to me given the growth outlook.

  9. #79
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Was it bad news or something t_j

    Getting close to closing this punt down

    Hard to see it getting to 2 bucks now

    At least the shareprice hasn't collpased as much as Dominos
    Last edited by winner69; 15-08-2017 at 02:09 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #80
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    Annual results came out... this year was in line with expected, it was next year that wasn't so hot... showed no or up to 6ish% drop in profit... not surprisingly investors voted with their feet... the retail investors were first to panic with the share price falling double digits to hit $1.65, on low opening volume. Finished down 5%... and I'm thinking it will be above $1.80 in no time... once people put their patience and thinking caps back on.

    What the annual results showed was EPS of 24.3 cps... confirming what I have said for a long while... that FXL is trading on ridiculously cheap valuations (7.2 at todays closing price)... then again what today also showed is the reason why (reason for now at least)... due to profit expected to be stagnant or slightly off this coming year. What didn't help was the dividend being near rock bottom of the payout ratio (being same as half year - representing bang on 4% yield at today's closing price (fully franked for the aussies).

    Ironically, the underlying business (notably excluding certegy which is one of the key reasons for the stagnant profit) is expected to improve by 5 - 10m, well up from the slideshow last year showing 1 - 6m imporvement in underlying business.

    Opearting cash flows were yet again a highlight, and impairments actually decreasing to their lowest point in years also a slight surprise (for me)... top line growth also there which will flow through to bottom line, just quite this coming year - the aussies are an impatient lot and those in for a quick buck punished share price accordingly (hard to believe it went down to $1.55 earlier in the year - truly stupid times that was)

    FY18 will be one of stabilisation (as mentioned by management) and could even provide some upside in 2nd half.
    FY19 is now the big one... very interesting and informative presentation (makes a nice change!) - I encourage you and others to take a look - can explain much more about the business than I ever could.

    I believe we are in the middle of a turn around, and going to start the upward swing, if not already on it. I reckon $2 by Mid Feb next year (although I would have liked for that to have been a few weeks ago - but the market doesn't like waiting)

    At the end of the day, if you can't wait 6 months to a year, and don't want an above bank interest rate being given to you while you wait, don't buy flexi.
    If you want a stock priced over 2x cheaper than HBL, and likely to provide similar double digit growth in a year's time, and you're happy to wait and get a little bit of cash in the mean time, FXL should be on the shopping list.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 15-08-2017 at 06:59 PM.

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