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17-04-2018, 09:47 PM
#351
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
How many ways can you say 'dog', Beagle? Bottom feeders are already buying up the potential future, so maybe it's the bottom or thereabouts already. No point in ignoring the future when one has some inkling that informed (smart?) money (major assumption on that) [since December 2017] has been buying huge dollops sees a profitable future. Ma and Pa shareholders as always are last into the tops and the bottoms, they need clues and there's a few big ones emerging already. The 'dog' rhetoric will look hollow and misguided if it's issued around the point in time when the smart money takes a very large position and the dumb money are selling to them.
Just saying, best to have an open mind and eyes on.
Good point, Baa Baa. Never allow oneself to get too negative about any company - or too positive.
The $25m fee however is very high and to the extent that it reflects the desperate state of FBU, is a possible indicator indeed that the bottom may be near.
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17-04-2018, 10:07 PM
#352
Underwriting fee of 2.0% and a management fee of 0.6% takes most of the $25m expense. Thats not unreasonable in the circumstances. The circumstances are what I find unreasonable!!
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17-04-2018, 10:18 PM
#353
I've been negative on FBU for years and laughed when several Aussie funds buying pushed them to $10-11 about 18 months ago. But I just bought in at $6.05 because despite all the cockies and negativity they have some very good assets and the uncompetitive CEO is gone (Norris will be soon too) along with too much negative sentiment after the stock has fallen 40%.
Of of course I could be proven wrong but at $6.00 I think FBU is too cheap and in 12-18 months they will have substantially recovered.
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17-04-2018, 10:48 PM
#354
No dividend for the rest of FY18 either. Whose to say these will return next year to previous levels?
If this drops to $5ish after the cap raise I would be interested in having a little stab.
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18-04-2018, 08:02 AM
#355
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
No dividend for the rest of FY18 either. Whose to say these will return next year to previous levels?
If this drops to $5ish after the cap raise I would be interested in having a little stab.
Ironical but in the older days when FBU raised new capital to acquire Formica ($1.3 billion) and Crane (another $1.3 billion), the sp actually rose after the capital raising.
Guess the market believed in the management and the company then.
$750m is a big capital raise for any NZ company so I suspect the sp will come back down to around $5.25 - $5.50 as shareholders in NZ and Oz sell down to pick up the rights, when trading resumes on Friday.
Note that the institutions get the first bite of the $4.80 shares so the successful ones will have a chance to crsytallize any premium above $4.80 from Friday.
Retail investors/shareholders will not have their spanking new shares until mid May!
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18-04-2018, 08:32 AM
#356
Originally Posted by Balance
Ironical but in the older days when FBU raised new capital to acquire Formica ($1.3 billion) and Crane (another $1.3 billion), the sp actually rose after the capital raising.
Guess the market believed in the management and the company then.
$750m is a big capital raise for any NZ company so I suspect the sp will come back down to around $5.25 - $5.50 as shareholders in NZ and Oz sell down to pick up the rights, when trading resumes on Friday.
Note that the institutions get the first bite of the $4.80 shares so the successful ones will have a chance to crsytallize any premium above $4.80 from Friday.
Retail investors/shareholders will not have their spanking new shares until mid May!
Crane and Formica acquisitions were touted to be ‘eps accretive’ so all exciting at the time
Struggled to be so
Most overused reason this ‘eps accretive’ thing ...punters fall for it every time.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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18-04-2018, 08:47 AM
#357
Originally Posted by winner69
Crane and Formica acquisitions were touted to be ‘eps accretive’ so all exciting at the time
Struggled to be so
Most overused reason this ‘eps accretive’ thing ...punters fall for it every time.
Yup.
Meanwhile, SMH which 'broke' the Wesfarmers story still cite 'sources' that Wesfarmers still has FBU in its radar!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...17-p4za30.html
FBU, Underwriters and whoever planted that story thank SMH for its service to FBU!
I see on NBR that NZX and FMA have got their wet bus tickets ready to unleash on whoever was responsible!
Last edited by Balance; 18-04-2018 at 08:55 AM.
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18-04-2018, 09:13 AM
#358
I wonder how many of the instos that hold FBU are in the money after holding their shares from 2000 ?
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18-04-2018, 09:13 AM
#359
when fbu sell formica the sum value of fbu will be much lower - less assets , less revunue and profit , less dividends one day so i would be very surprised to see the shares trading higher
one step ahead of the herd
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18-04-2018, 09:17 AM
#360
Originally Posted by bull....
when fbu sell formica the sum value of fbu will be much lower - less assets , less revunue and profit , less dividends one day so i would be very surprised to see the shares trading higher
Once the net proceeds after the sale of formica and the roofing co are known that will be to my mind the time to decide if FBU are worth buying as atm they are not in my view. I wouldn't be surprised if it was zero as Im sure they had debt funding!
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