FBU - Fletcher Building

**Habits** · 28-03-2021, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Greekwatchdog

Sounds good doesn't it? but they get other wood products elsewhere. Head winds coming up on supply chain. Bloody headaches

Now that we're all aware and primed, next comes the 'inevitable' price rises... so much for the affordable housing goal/pipe dream.

**Balance** · 28-03-2021, 09:34 AM

Originally Posted by Habits

Now that we're all aware and primed, next comes the 'inevitable' price rises... so much for the affordable housing goal/pipe dream.

Contact in the industry tells me to expect 10% to 15% increase in May as increase in China demand has already pushed up export prices hugely.

**winner69** · 28-03-2021, 09:53 AM

Wasn’t that long ago we were bemoaning collapsing log prices.

Mountains of logs sitting on the wharves and processing mills closing and hundreds out of jobs. (Napier Port IPO going to fail because of this blah blah)

Not very good at managing commodity cycles and thinking long term in NZ are we?

Not very good

**Balance** · 28-03-2021, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Wasn’t that long ago we were bemoaning collapsing log prices.

Mountains of logs sitting on the wharves and processing mills closing and hundreds out of jobs. (Napier Port IPO going to fail because of this blah blah)

Not very good at managing commodity cycles and thinking long term in NZ are we?

Not very good

Agree wholeheartedly, W69.

Lack of long term thinking is why almost all of private NZ forestry plantations are owned by foreign interests.

One of my forestry contacts (huge overseas investor) used to lament how NZers cut down plantation trees, ship it as logs and then, cannot be bothered to replant given the 20 to 30 years investment horizon.

BTW - FBU is now majority owned by Australian institutions with NZ investors making up less than 30% of its share register. What an indictment on short term thinking.

**Greekwatchdog** · 28-03-2021, 10:21 AM

Covid screwed the market. So few suppliers world wide at the mo. China taking our logs and setting the price in NZ by doing so. I have 2 x 5% increases coming over the next 2 quarters. Can't recall last time I saw a decrease. Hopefully/maybe we will see a normal supply chain start this time next year. I did read the other day that Russia is stopping exporting so it can localize their own market and create more businesses.

**Habits** · 28-03-2021, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by Balance

Agree wholeheartedly, W69.

Lack of long term thinking is why almost all of private NZ forestry plantations are owned by foreign interests.

One of my forestry contacts (huge overseas investor) used to lament how NZers cut down plantation trees, ship it as logs and then, cannot be bothered to replant given the 20 to 30 years investment horizon.

BTW - FBU is now majority owned by Australian institutions with NZ investors making up less than 30% of its share register. What an indictment on short term thinking.

I think it all started with sir rob offering election bribes and canning the retirement savings. We cant turn back the clock on that but we would have had a massive fund to buy banks and longterm forestry blocks. I also wonder at the logic of the nz super fund that invests its money offshore to 'diversify' when there are needs and opportunites here.