FBU - Fletcher Building

[Cottagestyles]

Couldn't help dipping in today after seeing seeing the squiggly line in "oversold" territory last couple days. Last time in this sort of sector for me was as a teenager competing for bragging rights with my brother in early 90s.
I went CHH, my bro plumped for FCL 😁

[Leemsip]

Also bought some yesterday. Full of trepidation as the housing market tanks will surely mean less building and renos....

Anyway 3% of portfolio, so not too dramatic in either case.

[winner69]

Rawz (I think) said some risk about FY divie and BP said about EPS 'as long as the long term trend points upwards' no worries

Long term eps trend actually points downward but one could say it's flat. Amazing how one of NZ's biggest company's profit perfomance is so woeful eh ...never mind, that's another topic for discussion.

I'm hoping like hell that market sentiment will improve so the 'hype' part of the share price equation grows

Not a high conviction buy for me - let's hope I haven't been seduced into a 'value trap' or 'dividend trap' (whatever the term is)

Here's FBU EPS over the years - the solid line is before all the adjustments (not our fault adjustments ha ha) they make. Trend line is flat isn't it - should have left out pre GFC years to make it look better

[Rawz]

That's a really good chart, Winner. 10 year track record would slope up.

[winner69]

That's a really good chart, Winner. 10 year track record would slope up.

10 year (including F23) is dead flat - at about 42 cents

And earnings maybe at cycle peak

[nztx]

It’ll recover the 14 cents in a blink of an eye …no worries …..and it’s going to be 7 bucks by Christmas anyway

Up 1c so far off the adjusted 4.32 after shedding the Div ..

[BlackPeter]

Rawz (I think) said some risk about FY divie and BP said about EPS 'as long as the long term trend points upwards' no worries

Long term eps trend actually points downward but one could say it's flat. Amazing how one of NZ's biggest company's profit perfomance is so woeful eh ...never mind, that's another topic for discussion.

...

Sure - 10 yrs looking up and 25 years looking down. Isn't it amazing how the picture changes if you move the "long-term window") to suit your argument? Works for any stock ... but I guess it probably depends on your investment horizon.

But then - maybe you should look at the 100 year (or 1000 year) trend. Just look (as example) at the Catholic Church - going concern for nearly 2 Millennia ... and still making bucket loads of money by making promises without the need to ever deliver. That's an investment!

Discl: Anybody offended by above example, please just replace "catholic church" with any religion you don't belong to ... and I am sure you will love it!

[winner69]

Jeez the FBU share price will in the 3s at this rate

Got well and truly seduced by that ‘deep value’ trick

You smart ones out there will be getting even deeper value when you time your entry better

[Balance]

I see $3.50 as a realistic entry point for FBU in the next 6 months.

There is nothing to really keep the sp up and the Australian institutions are mainly trying to get out.

Meanwhile, the windfall profits from the residential housing sector have run out for FBU as the next set of results will reveal imo.

I made the mistake of inquiring about a new build from Fletcher Living 3 years ago and they could not care a hoot about following up after sending me an email & price list.

Currently I am getting a call from them almost bi weekly about their offerings - at ever lower prices.

So they are obviously trawling through their contact list to try & entice previously interested ‘buyers’ to buy their completed but unsold homes. What a turnaround!

Have started to ignore their calls but they keep calling! In fact, had yet another one at 11.15 am this morning.

Very telling.

[Toddy]

I'm hanging out for a special FBU RYM combo.

$9.00

Coming soon to you