FBU - Fletcher Building

[Ricky-bobby]

Haha u did better than me at least, I bought in last week when it was a lot higher! Most of the portfolio is looking pretty average at the moment…

[Balance]

I see $3.50 as a realistic entry point for FBU in the next 6 months.

There is nothing to really keep the sp up and the Australian institutions are mainly trying to get out.

Meanwhile, the windfall profits from the residential housing sector have run out for FBU as the next set of results will reveal imo.

I made the mistake of inquiring about a new build from Fletcher Living 3 years ago and they could not care a hoot about following up after sending me an email & price list.

Currently I am getting a call from them almost bi weekly about their offerings - at ever lower prices.

So they are obviously trawling through their contact list to try & entice previously interested ‘buyers’ to buy their completed but unsold homes. What a turnaround!

Have started to ignore their calls but they keep calling! In fact, had yet another one at 11.15 am this morning.

Very telling.

Closed 31c on ASX or $4.15, down another 10c on NZX close. Ominous!

[kiora]

When NZ INC needs its largest construction Company firing on all cylinders !

I'll say it again, for me uni,,,,,,,,,,,
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/i...es-with-jacobs

[Rawz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408845

Looks like 4 directors of FBU see value. Each buying $50k-$80k shares on market

[winner69]

Latest building consents data not that good.

Westpac paint a gloomy picture of the industry over next few years

Tighter financial conditions are becoming an increasing drag on construction activity. Consent issuance is trending down, and we expect that downturn will deepen over the year ahead.

And

Reconstruction following the recent storms that buffeted large swathes of the central North Island will boost building activity over the coming year. However, that will only slow the overall pace of decline in residential building – we’re still looking at tough financial conditions in the homebuilding sector over the next few years.


https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economi...07480&cd=53404

[Balance]

Comment from my developer contact in Hamilton :

Builders in the Waikato are saying that residential building activity is going to fall off the face of a cliff from June in the previously booming region.

They are completing the last of the projects still in progress but many developers are in trouble and have stopped or shelved new developments in the face of unsold stock.

Case in point - a 40 unit development where half the units have been built but remain unsold despite the developer reducing the unit price by 20%. Obviously the developer has stopped the other 20 units from being built.

Australia beckons and many of the tradesmen are getting ready to seek work in Australia.

[BlackPeter]

Latest building consents data not that good.

Westpac paint a gloomy picture of the industry over next few years

Tighter financial conditions are becoming an increasing drag on construction activity. Consent issuance is trending down, and we expect that downturn will deepen over the year ahead.

And

Reconstruction following the recent storms that buffeted large swathes of the central North Island will boost building activity over the coming year. However, that will only slow the overall pace of decline in residential building – we’re still looking at tough financial conditions in the homebuilding sector over the next few years.


https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economi...07480&cd=53404

Not saying they are wrong this time ... but just wondering - how many situations do we remember where property analysts have been correct about predicting the future (excluding some obvious seasonal influences)? And how often have they been wrong?

Might be just my memory, but as far as I am concerned the "wrong" list would be much longer.

Just saying - I guess it can be hilarious entertainment to listen to all these experts predicting the future, nearly as much fun as pouring lead on New Years Eve (are you doing that here as well?) or just reading tea leaves, but we better don't rely on this stuff to prepare for the future ...

[Greekwatchdog]

The drop is not a calamity. The industry is still over capacity. So really the headline is there to sell and scare as per usual.

"But on an annualized basis, the drop wasn’t as sharp. There were 48,257 new homes consented in the year to February 2023, down 3.3 per cent compared with the year to last February"

[winner69]

The drop is not a calamity. The industry is still over capacity. So really the headline is there to sell and scare as per usual.

"But on an annualized basis, the drop wasn’t as sharp. There were 48,257 new homes consented in the year to February 2023, down 3.3 per cent compared with the year to last February"

Wonder what X will be in a years time when they say ‘…..consented in the year to February 2024, down X% compared with the year to last February’

[Greekwatchdog]

Wonder what X will be in a years time when they say ‘…..consented in the year to February 2024, down X% compared with the year to last February’

I wonder that too, but given 100% capacity is 35k homes annually its still very high even at 48k. Future in unwritten so I guess we shall see this time next year. Hopefully health and luck permitting we are still here to chat about it.