FBU - Fletcher Building

[penn]

Prediction is very difficult, true, and I guess this weeks lift is all about people like me that think the share buy back may have a positive pressure over time.

[winner69]

Prediction is very difficult, true, and I guess this weeks lift is all about people like me that think the share buy back may have a positive pressure over time.

Most things (esp the ‘blue chips’ went up this week ...maybe the good increase in FBU isn’t really FBU specific .....like rising tide lifts all boats or something

[penn]

Most things (esp the ‘blue chips’ went up this week ...maybe the good increase in FBU isn’t really FBU specific .....like rising tide lifts all boats or something

Huge respect to an Awesome Cool Cat, The thing about ‘blue chips’ is that once I went to the Auckland casino and all I did was 'Blew chips' I am sure that three years ago FBU was a 'Blue chip share' and they can go up and they can go down. So if it a case of a rising tide, maybe if the tide turns, then this (FBU) is a vessel that will have $300,000,000 poured into it in the next 12 months, I know what it feels like to be "well positioned" in a share when there is a very large shareholder getting out. So conversely a committed buyer should act a bit like a rope to the wharf and if strong enough may hold back the falling tide effect? But as I said in my first post I may get out at + 18% I am now at +8% so why don't we wait and see where this goes?

[winner69]

Penn ...you love buybacks ....you in on the SKC one as well.

[penn]

Penn ...you love buybacks ....you in on the SKC one as well.

Even though I am a Gambler I have a resistance/ aversion to investing in a pure play casino share, -so that is a strong no from me however I would look at TRA and ethically I have no issue with the developers of retirement villages, I am holding OCA and SUM, I do believe that FBU is now a steady ship, but as we know there could be a world event that would change it all overnight, how long do you stay 'cashed up' and watch opportunities pass you by?

[Balance]

Even though I am a Gambler I have a resistance/ aversion to investing in a pure play casino share, -so that is a strong no from me however I would look at TRA and ethically I have no issue with the developers of retirement villages, I am holding OCA and SUM, I do believe that FBU is now a steady ship, but as we know there could be a world event that would change it all overnight, how long do you stay 'cashed up' and watch opportunities pass you by?

Almost everyone is investing with an eye to the next BIG crash - as in 1987, 1997, 2007 and 2017 - but 2017 has passed with no crash so we may be due for one in October 2019?

[penn]

"Almost everyone is investing with an eye to the next BIG crash" OK I agree, however can we come up with a strategy to benefit from knowing this. Just shorting stocks and waiting for October is not wise to me, as being 'all in' may not be the best either. I seem to remember around 2007 when the NZX had an 'across the board' correction and one of the only 'safe havens on the NZX was a large Oil and Gas (nz) company that was worth about a dollar a share and by 2008 was still around $1.05 --Trouble was they then went after coking coal and the rest of that story is too sad to mention and may be what (O.G. Oil & Gas) (Singapore) have in mind with their takeover, or perhaps the answer to my own question at 7.38 on Sunday, is the 'Gentailers" ??

[penn]

Looks like the theory could work, not every day you can see a 2.3% lift, and just the first day of the 'buyback'

[penn]

SP dropped to day to $4.28 - lowest level since June 2004. Brave people fighting the market, though they say there is a thin line between being brave and - well, you know ...

That was two weeks ago and FBU closed at $5.00 tonight, my math puts the lift (72 CPS) at 16.8% and If I was in charge of the buy back I would pause now after three days and start again on Monday. Good luck all.

[BlackPeter]

That was two weeks ago and FBU closed at $5.00 tonight, my math puts the lift (72 CPS) at 16.8% and If I was in charge of the buy back I would pause now after three days and start again on Monday. Good luck all.

Good on you, you might have found the bottom and indicators certainly look happier than at that stage. However - still below MA200 ...

But then - the higher the risks the higher the potential rewards (or loss). Only time will tell.

Personally (looking at the fundamentals) not sure I would want to take the plunge no matter how good the TA looks - but then - FBU is one of these companies the market is typically pricing higher than I would value them .