FBU - Fletcher Building

[Lease]

Good on you, you might have found the bottom and indicators certainly look happier than at that stage. However - still below MA200 ...

But then - the higher the risks the higher the potential rewards (or loss). Only time will tell.

Personally (looking at the fundamentals) not sure I would want to take the plunge no matter how good the TA looks - but then - FBU is one of these companies the market is typically pricing higher than I would value them .

So what's your current value on FBU?

[BlackPeter]

So what's your current value on FBU?

Hard to say.

If we look at FBU's history with basically stagnant revenue (they made 7.1b in 2009 and analysts expect 7.99 in 2020 - this is less growth than the rate of inflation) and dropping earnings in combination with a constant stream of newly discovered (or probably better newly revealed) skeletons - not sure it would be worth the risk to buy them at all.

If we trust the current management and believe that they got now on top of all the issues - then a forward PE of 10 appears given the lack of growth appropriate ... which would calculate into a share price of $3.40 (but don't forget - there always are risks, and FBU has a lot of experience in getting each of them to blow up);

Obviously - If you see them as the next ATM, then all bets are off - but then again - FBU is performing worst during building booms, and didn't they predict that Australia (as well as NZ) is going to take off again?

Not my preferred investment ...

[Lease]

Hard to say.

If we look at FBU's history with basically stagnant revenue (they made 7.1b in 2009 and analysts expect 7.99 in 2020 - this is less growth than the rate of inflation) and dropping earnings in combination with a constant stream of newly discovered (or probably better newly revealed) skeletons - not sure it would be worth the risk to buy them at all.

If we trust the current management and believe that they got now on top of all the issues - then a forward PE of 10 appears given the lack of growth appropriate ... which would calculate into a share price of $3.40 (but don't forget - there always are risks, and FBU has a lot of experience in getting each of them to blow up);

Obviously - If you see them as the next ATM, then all bets are off - but then again - FBU is performing worst during building booms, and didn't they predict that Australia (as well as NZ) is going to take off again?

Not my preferred investment ...

One thing I wonder: if everyone is so negative, why FBU senior managers keep buying shares over the last 12 months. I have counted there are 9 buys and no single sale.

[BlackPeter]

One thing I wonder: if everyone is so negative, why FBU senior managers keep buying shares over the last 12 months. I have counted there are 9 buys and no single sale.

I guess FBU is an outstanding example for senior managers not always being right - otherwise they wouldn't be in the mess in which they currently are.

Have they been right in buying FBU shares over the last 12 months? Who knows, only time will tell. Share price was still around $7 12 months ago, i.e. timing to buy was certainly not impeccable (if they really bought 12 months ago - I didn't check the buy dates).

However - market does crazy things (like e.g.valuing a lemon like FBU less than 3 years ago at above $10). Market clearly overvalued them at that stage, it might do that again.

[Lease]

I guess FBU is an outstanding example for senior managers not always being right - otherwise they wouldn't be in the mess in which they currently are.

Have they been right in buying FBU shares over the last 12 months? Who knows, only time will tell. Share price was still around $7 12 months ago, i.e. timing to buy was certainly not impeccable (if they really bought 12 months ago - I didn't check the buy dates).

However - market does crazy things (like e.g.valuing a lemon like FBU less than 3 years ago at above $10). Market clearly overvalued them at that stage, it might do that again.

Hopefully you're right. I'm in at $4.48.

[BlackPeter]

Hopefully you're right. I'm in at $4.48.

I didn't say that you can rely on the market acting crazy ... but I certainly do wish you the best of luck ;

[penn]

9,000,000 shares traded today and +2% guess they did not take a break from the 'buyback' wonder what will happen in the morning?

[BlackPeter]

Looks like another attempt to get above the MA200 failed. RSI dropping, momentum going negative - and the US markets overnight won't help either.

Ready for the next wave downwards?

InkedFBU.jpg

[winner69]

Looks like another attempt to get above the MA200 failed. RSI dropping, momentum going negative - and the US markets overnight won't help either.

Ready for the next wave downwards?

InkedFBU.jpg

BP - 100s of millions worth of buybacks will stop that happening eh

[BlackPeter]

BP - 100s of millions worth of buybacks will stop that happening eh

As we know from history - there are always 3 ways share buy backs can influence the SP:

1) Don't change it
2) Increase it
3) Drop it

Do I need to provide examples?