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  1. #481
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just wondering - how much is a stock with a current (and big) loss due to management ineptness, a (3 year) forward PE of 23 vs a trailing (10 yr) PE of 20, no growth what so ever and a history of incompetent management and board decisions really worth?

    Would a PE of 10 sound fair? I probably would think twice about that but 23? Really?

    Just wondering what I am missing for not investing into this company? I guess even if they manage to magically replace over night not just all the dead wood in management but as well the inept and overpaid board - how long would the company need to work to at least be worth their current price?

    What is the investment proposition?
    What you're missing is this thing "dogging" your portfolio returns lol. Anyone without it in their portfolio has been very happy in recent years and I fully expect that position to continue in the years ahead. New Captain rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic...a ship that's systemically flawed is how I see it. No growth PE of 8.5 might be okay if anyone had any confidence left that they knew how to avoid future icebergs lol Widespread derision towards this company, its directors and management at the last two annual Auckland ST get-togethers I organized. Safe bet there will be a very similar sentiment at next year's meeting.
    My rating... AVOID like the plague.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-07-2018 at 10:48 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    My rating... AVOID like the plague.
    very wise words roger
    limited upside (except potential asset/division sell-offs) and plenty of downside and management risk - likely to underperform
    can only assume the insto's consider this as one of those 'fancy blue-chips' as to the reason why it's assigned such a high PE
    agree that it should really be on something around the 9 to 11 mark

  3. #483
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BP .....three things -

    1 - sum of the parts is probably a lot more than the current share price

    2 - The Bible has F19 eps at over 50 cents so not that expensive at the moment

    3 - Recommendations like AVOID are often quite emotive and biased
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #484
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BP .....three things -

    1 - sum of the parts is probably a lot more than the current share price

    2 - The Bible has F19 eps at over 50 cents so not that expensive at the moment

    3 - Recommendations like AVOID are often quite emotive and biased
    No growth cyclical building company that's probably structurally systemically flawed with questionable ability to manage its way out of a decade long fiasco and you reckon this is not that expensive ??

    You really think all the skeletons are out of the closet ? This time its different and they really are coming right....LOL good comedy mate.
    The best thing about this company is its corporate entertainment value...that corporate B.S. tool gets such a thorough workout its more fun reading their creative musings than attending the local circus lol
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-07-2018 at 11:42 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #485
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BP .....three things -

    1 - sum of the parts is probably a lot more than the current share price

    2 - The Bible has F19 eps at over 50 cents so not that expensive at the moment

    3 - Recommendations like AVOID are often quite emotive and biased
    1) Possible. So, you are saying holders wait for a restructure and sell out / potential take over? If this is the strategy, than I am however wondering,whether the sum of the parts could potentially bought cheaper after the next bear market ... or would you expect a substantial restructure soon (like this year)?

    2) I never look into just one year to determine EPS ... and lets put it that way - no analyst predicted the last blow out either, as well as the Christchurch Airport Fiasco (I think this is the most recent big loss maker I have heard of). Not even sure, whether they are already captured in the predictions;

    Average EPS (over the last 8 years) was 31 cents. Will they really make 52 cents in 2019? Who knows, but than - they are losing 11 cents this year.

    I really don't think it is possible to justify their SP based on earnings and growth alone ...

    3) Sure - but than - all recommendations are subjective (i.e. capturing emotion).

    Just wondering - are you holding?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #486
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BP ..yes at the moment as nice rise from a month or so ago. As long as all the big money needs to keep buying FBU just as much as they need to buy A2 or Ryman and others should be OK ....nice to have so much cash to play with eh

    Day to day proposition though ....doubt if I’ll be in the lead up to the announcement in August

    Fond memories of FBU ....was a 4 bagger once.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #487
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BP ..yes at the moment as nice rise from a month or so ago. As long as all the big money needs to keep buying FBU just as much as they need to buy A2 or Ryman and others should be OK ....nice to have so much cash to play with eh

    Day to day proposition though ....doubt if I’ll be in the lead up to the announcement in August

    Fond memories of FBU ....was a 4 bagger once.
    Anyone who knows the history of FBU knows they destroy shareholder wealth.
    Always done it.Steel works,fine paper mills.Not justn in NZ either.
    50 years or more of disasters.
    AVOID.
    Last edited by percy; 16-07-2018 at 02:26 PM.

  8. #488
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Anyone who knows the history of FBU knows they destroy shareholder wealth.
    Always done it.Steel works,fine paper mills.Not justn in NZ either.
    50 years or more of disasters.
    AVOID.
    How do you make a small fortune out of FBU ? Start with a BIG one and stay invested
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #489
    Veteran novice
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    Perhaps it's not a big item in FBU's P and L but the company will be "sharing" in the cost of remedial work for the leaky Kapiti Expressway.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/new...-after-opening

  10. #490
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Perhaps it's not a big item in FBU's P and L but the company will be "sharing" in the cost of remedial work for the leaky Kapiti Expressway.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/new...-after-opening
    While this is wandering off into the weeds let me tell you about the road outside the Munroe Mansion.

    Our council decided to upgrade the base and reseal the road. It was split into two contracts.

    One part was done by a chap with several employees and the other was done by a "playa" well known nationwide in the civil works and infrastructure sphere.

    The "playa's" part has been and is still beset by seal lift and pot holes, nothing has needed to be done to the chaps section.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

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