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  1. #501
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jg8512 View Post
    fascinating how seriously badly the building and construction sector is performing. Mainzeal, Hawkins, Orange H, Fletchers .... (and suppliers of building product (STU, MPG)

    now Ebert goes under owing tens of millions

    so many failures, so much negativity. "deep problems creating a perfect storm" was one quote I saw this morning, "razor thin margins" another. Might these collapses be the catalyst for more realistic (and risk-averse) pricing? And there is a lot of work out there (and in east Coast Australia). Could the last players standing be about to start enjoying a coming period with stronger tailwinds (even if they have a poor track record of managing and looking after capital)?

    just wondering
    All the companies were fighting tooth and nail to get a slice of the action during the boom with managers rewarded on market share and number of contracts.

    Good thing that so many are falling down as it will mean better margins for remaining players and more available resources.

  2. #502
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    that's what the "cyclical" in "cyclical industries" means. Buy the right company at the bottom of the cycle and you will be nicely rewarded.

    Only two questions I would ask:
    1) are we there (at the bottom) yet?
    2) Is FBU the right company?
    I don't even think you have to answer the second question correctly. it doesn't have to be the right company ... just a company (or better still companies) that survives to benefit from the subsequent upturn.
    John Templeton would ask: are we at the point of maximum pessimism? is the outlook most miserable? Is this the sector where the public are most frightened and pessimistic? We would seem to be close

  3. #503
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jg8512 View Post
    I don't even think you have to answer the second question correctly. it doesn't have to be the right company ... just a company (or better still companies) that survives to benefit from the subsequent upturn.
    John Templeton would ask: are we at the point of maximum pessimism? is the outlook most miserable? Is this the sector where the public are most frightened and pessimistic? We would seem to be close
    Well, it needs to be "right enough" to survive the early phases of the upswing. Construction companies are particularly vulnerable to the fallout of related companies coming down - and financial downturns do have a tail.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #504
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Hmm - no matter whether FBU ends up as survivor, it appears the current uptrend was sort of short lived and they are running already out of puff. I can see a head and shoulder pattern and obviously - the MA 200 is again on the wrong side of the wiggly line.

    Not a surprise, given that there have been no real fundamentals supporting this uptrend. I guess we better keep waiting before we put FBU into our "dogs of the NZX" portfolio. As usual - it likely needs to get worse before it gets better.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #505
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    We’ll soon have an idea whether the sum of the parts are more than the whole.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #506
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/...ectid=12107953

    Have Fletchers made any announcements on Commercial bay yet? 6 months delay.. jeez that'll hurt. Still sometime before they're fully out of the vertical game.

  7. #507
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    FBU ann out no surprised with that .

  8. #508
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    no guidance is no surprise , i be surprised if we dont get some more surprises going forward
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #509
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    no guidance is no surprise , i be surprised if we dont get some more surprises going forward
    Like a return to profit? Now that would be a surprise.

  10. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor View Post
    Like a return to profit? Now that would be a surprise.
    Remember the " building boom " is not finished yet so neither are the "surprises " !!

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