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  1. #61
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Would need to create a special chart for Turners
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    Last edited by winner69; 05-10-2018 at 08:03 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  2. #62
    Legend
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Personally the lower interest rate return, loss of the conversion option and the fact that the dividend yield on the head shares is now a good match for the fixed interest yield has put me off these bonds. It looks to me like buying the bonds retains the downside risk of the shares if the business goes sour but gives up any upside risk that a holding in the head shares will give you. To me, the head shares are now the more balanced risk investment option.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks Snoopy, really appreciate your analysis. Terms unattractive for this mutt too. If the shares pay 16.5 cps in fully imputed dividends this year (16.5 / 0.72) = 22.92 cps gross that's a 7.85% gross dividend yield at $2.92, significantly better than the 5.5% offered by the bonds.

    Of course if the shares keep performing like a mange and flea infested pig dog the shareholders might have wished they were bondholders.
    Almost a year on Beagle and the only statement of sense we made without the benefit of hindsight is your 'pig dog' behaviour and consequences that came to pass.

    Total dividends from the head shares were ahead of your expectation at 17cps. But the share price on Friday was down to $2.33. So we are talking about an historical gross yield of:

    17/ (233 x 0.72) = 10.1%

    Meanwhile the TRA100 bonds last traded on a yield of just 4%. That would be a capital gain for original bondholders of:

    5.5/4 = 37.5%

    Talk about backing the wrong horse! Congratulations to the original TRA100 bondholders, although good luck with cashing out your profits. The market liquidity for those bonds looks microscopic.

    I can't make the numbers add up as a buyer at 4% though. You would be buying the $1 face value bonds for $1.375. Then even if you bought early enough to pocket all three annual interest payments your total income in two and a bit years would be just:

    5.5c + 5.5c + 5.5c = 16.5c (gross), or 11.88c (net)

    Yet the capital you would lose on the bonds when they are redeemed in two years time would be 37.5c on every dollar. So it looks like those buying the bonds at a 4% yield are guaranteed to lose a net 25.5c on each and every bond they hold bought at that price. What am I missing?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 25-08-2019 at 08:36 PM.
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  3. #63
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    ...What am I missing?...
    TRA100-20190825.jpg

    Buy $100 face value of bonds for $103.862 (see piccy above).

    Receive 9 quarterly payments of $1.375, a gain of $12.375

    Receive $100 back on redemption, a loss of $3.862

    Net gain over two and bit years = $8.51

    Which is approximately 4.0% on your outlay.
    om mani peme hum

  4. #64
    percy
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    So investors who brought in a face value would have received $12.375
    or approx 6.18%.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    So investors who brought in a face value would have received $12.375
    or approx 6.18%.
    No, I don't think so. That $12.375 you highlight is future contracted income that is yet to be paid, not income already received.

    A 5.5% coupon rate means that for each $100 invested, bondholders receive $5.50 per year. But the payments are made quarterly. So each quarterly payment is:

    $5.50 / 4 = $1.375

    The bonds have a duration of three years. That makes twelve quarterly payments in total. If only three of those payments have already been made, then bondholders have received:

    3 x $1.375 = $4.125

    If bondholders were to cash out now, prior to the entitlement date for their fourth annual interest payment, they would make a capital gain of:

    $103.862 - $100 = $3.862

    So the total return for each $100 held by 'a bondholder' who bought on day 1 would be:

    $4.125 + $3.862 = $7.987

    And that equates to a return of just short of 8% (gross)! Hopefully my 'morning maths' is a bit better than my 'late night maths' ;-P

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 26-08-2019 at 08:11 AM.
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

  6. #66
    Legend
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post

    Buy $100 face value of bonds for $103.862 (see piccy above).

    Receive 9 quarterly payments of $1.375, a gain of $12.375

    Receive $100 back on redemption, a loss of $3.862

    Net gain over two and bit years = $8.51

    Which is approximately 4.0% on your outlay.
    Ah thank you my white furred friend. 'Well spotted' (pun intended) ;-)

    So that 4% yield figure quoted, actually represents a 'wash up' calculation with all bond payments to maturity taken into account. I see now.

    SNOOPY
    To be free or not to be free. That is the cash-flow question....

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