sharetrader
Page 2 of 20 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 197
  1. #11
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    The Feasibility study for the large pumped hydro project has been concluded.
    Highlights are as follows:
    250MW generation capacity with 6 hours continous generation
    1,500MW storage capacity
    and more on the main announcement http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01799665

    Management points out that the energy market in Australia is in an intense transition period to divest from fossil fuel generation to renewable generation and have received significant interest from funding and financing entities. The obviously want to get on board early.

    All in all great news. I for one will top up today hopefully under 25c.

  2. #12
    Senior Member Dej's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    614

    Default

    My thoughts, as seen on HC:

    Main positive points from me:
    - We have a TFS for the pumped hydro. These reports are hard to complete and with such a small team at Genex I am impressed by their work.


    Main negative points for me:
    - Optimized model gives reduction from 450MW installed capacity to 250MW. Originally, back when the prospectus was filed, they stated an installed capacity of 330MW between the two existing pits. Then they said they can get 450MW from a turkeys nest to lower pit arrangement. The additional capital cost of the turkeys nest was balanced with the additional capacity. Now we have a turkeys nest with 250MW capacity. So additional capital cost and less capacity.
    - As per a snapshot of timelines from a presentation (will try find link if anyone is interested) the timeline for financial close was Q1 2017 and this is now Q4 2017. That's a huge discrepancy.
    - Not sure if the TFS will pass off as a BFS. The BFS for the Pumped Hydro project, as per same presentation from above, was meant to be completed in Q3 2016. Given you need capital cost estimates for a BFS, and the capital cost estimates from this announcement state they will continue into Q1 and Q2 of 2017, then the BFS is now going to be around the same sized discrepancy as the financial close.


    What I took from this announcement is that the PHS project has been delayed approximately 6 - 12 months. (Side note, I realise projects are always delivered later than planned and usually cost more).


    Would love to have some discussion regarding some of the points above.

    http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-...#post-20440982
    “If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.” ― Marcus Aurelius

  3. #13
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    Jeez that double up on boards is confusing Thanks for your points Dej. I will look into them a little closer. Just saw that most of my order at 24c got filled now. I have now a pretty sizeable (relativ to portfolio) parcel of shares. I am highly aware that any big project generally is plagued with delays, cost overruns and funding amongst other things. However I believe that GNX is well placed to negotiate the best possible terms for financing.

  4. #14
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    Been too busy reading Twitter about the US elections so in the meantime an article of interest

    Kidston solar and pumped hydro plant clears another hurdle
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/kidston-s...-hurdle-96381/

  5. #15
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    A research note from Canaccord suggest a 12 month target for GNX of 75c and a potential valuation of $1.69 (current 26.5c). It seems a bit high to me but I would certainly be happy if it were true. I usually try to value companies on a minimum earnings multiple and if it still makes me money I will invest. The market itself then decides what it thinks it is worth for the added bonus.

    Their key risk seems to be that it needs to raise more equity funds if debt funding or equity partners are not forthcoming.

    Personally I think that they have scaled down the project from their IPO prospectus as not to have this problem. I am sure that management has negotiated well in advance about this and amended their feasability study for the pumped hydro project accordingly. Well at least I hope they had this kind of foresight as they do pay themselves handsomly.

    http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads...-_nov_2016.pdf

  6. #16
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    I have e-mailed the Executive Director Simon Kidston what he believes the keys to driving equity values are. His reply word for word is as follows:

    __________________________________________________ _______________________________
    Thanks for your feedback. Capex is important, however the key to driving equity value is order is:
    - Revenue contracts. The Qld government awarded Genex a really good contract for the solar project. We anticipate Government or a major energy retailer will consider something similar for the hydro. If we achieve that, we anticipate share price re-rating because it will enable majority of capital costs to be debt funded

    - Grant funding. ARENA focus now is storage , so we hope to secure grant for the hydro project

    - Minimising equity dilution by finding the right project partner to fund capex

    - Capex - always an important issue. We are comfortable with the capex but we decided to approach the market to get proper tender pricing (not just an estimate from a consultant)

    Michael Addison and I are significant shareholders, so we are very focused on delivering this project in a way that makes shareholders money.
    cheers
    Simon

    <end of reply>

  7. #17
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    Highlights from todays announcement:

    Project finance credit approval received for up to AUD$110 million
    ARENA grant funding agreement executed
    Project construction program to commence
    On target for first generation from Kidston Solar in Q4 2017

  8. #18
    IMO
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    9,696

    Default

    Thanks silu, esp for the previous post.

  9. #19
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    1,866

    Default

    And with that lovely opening GNX has become my second biggest shareholding across all markets. Long may it continue.

  10. #20
    Senior Member Dej's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    614

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    And with that lovely opening GNX has become my second biggest shareholding across all markets. Long may it continue.
    Jinx - It is my second largest as well.

    Just the beginning!

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •