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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    I've been eyeing this one up too, but the way it keeps tumbling just looks very ominous. And there looks to be very little in the way of support. I wonder how their conversation with ASB is going...? Mainfrieght or someone might start to take a look...
    Exactly that is what I want to hear as well

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Just in regards that companies are all on their back foot in regards to needing capital. This virus is an unknown for all companies. I met this family member two weeks before all this took place and I should have mentioned that.
    I dont disagree with your comments on Capital Raises
    I would be concerned with 1H20 Report & Commentary
    IRFS inflated 1H20 by +$15m & yet this still resulted in Negative 1H20 NPAT and cancelled dividend
    IRFS probably further extenuates Gearing ratios, as must be the case with most operators with hefty plant/leases
    OK it was probably there but hidden previously, but for the Beancounter's fancy footwork now with this change
    I do note that the 6 months saw deterioration in Working Capital over FY19
    Softer markets hinted at & perhaps with Level4 Virus, some divisions closed down wont be helping in future periods
    I wouldn't discount a Capital Raise in next 6-12 months either to sure things up

    SHF hasn't really changed much between FY & end 1H20 ; Net Working Cap excluding IRFS fancy footwork
    appears Lower. What will another 6 months show ?
    Cash & Revenue is a necessity to pay all those heft plant & vehicle leases monthly



    Even with the above TLL has been on watchlist & have added to small holding in recent days
    Last edited by nztx; 03-04-2020 at 06:50 PM. Reason: Adding more to posting

  3. #93
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    It's been awhile since anyone's discussed TIL on here, what's our thoughts on them?

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by gains View Post
    It's been awhile since anyone's discussed TIL on here, what's our thoughts on them?
    Same as yours, we think, but remind us what you think about them.

    PS: Selamat Datang ke ShareTrader
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 03-08-2020 at 10:49 AM.
    om mani peme hum

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Same as yours, we think, but remind us what you think about them.

    PS: Selamat Datang ke ShareTrader
    Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

    My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by gains View Post
    Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

    My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them

    I looked in earlier with a small holding, then Mar 20 Div got canned and SP slid subsequently so out
    SP looks expensive on NTA & potential short term Div prospects - but who knows what next Report will bring
    I look at SP peaks troughs & trends balancing against current & future likely economic conditions.
    Does the industry / sector pay reasonable returns to risk ?
    A Capital intensive type of sector, I was surprised a Cap Raise didn't come
    but I'm not an Adviser & looking from a distance with no current holding

    Prospects elsewhere looked more enticing & rewarding back months ago, thankfully..

    A return to normal trading (if that still is to happen in current conditions) and reinstatement of past div patterns
    may well mean worth a look in again here
    Last edited by nztx; 13-08-2020 at 04:58 PM. Reason: add more

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by gains View Post
    Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

    My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them
    The market was pleasantly surprised I think with the June and July guidance announcements, at which point I sold out for a tidy little profit. Dipped my toe back in last week at 71c but clearly too early...I'm not sure why it's pulled back since and quite a bit off the recent high...might have to do some averaging down. There is just no liquidity though...a mere $10k passing hands today.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    The market was pleasantly surprised I think with the June and July guidance announcements, at which point I sold out for a tidy little profit. Dipped my toe back in last week at 71c but clearly too early...I'm not sure why it's pulled back since and quite a bit off the recent high...might have to do some averaging down. There is just no liquidity though...a mere $10k passing hands today.
    I decided to tip my toes in yesterday @ $0.66, I thought I got a sweet deal until today dropped further. Maybe a day early but results are due very soon. I might, or might not, be a very happy man.

    The market was pleasantly surprised at the June/July guidance but we've seen similar with main freight and how they appear to be doing exceptionally well despite covid ruining (almost) everything. That was the catalyst for me investing in TLL, from my research they should do relatively well.

    The big burden for TLL is the debt but I feel this isn't as great a concern (with how low interest rates are) so should be a surprising result despite the disruption.

  9. #99
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    Annual results due for release Thursday 27 August:

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357177

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by gains View Post
    I decided to tip my toes in yesterday @ $0.66, I thought I got a sweet deal until today dropped further. Maybe a day early but results are due very soon. I might, or might not, be a very happy man.

    The market was pleasantly surprised at the June/July guidance but we've seen similar with main freight and how they appear to be doing exceptionally well despite covid ruining (almost) everything. That was the catalyst for me investing in TLL, from my research they should do relatively well.

    The big burden for TLL is the debt but I feel this isn't as great a concern (with how low interest rates are) so should be a surprising result despite the disruption.

    Bear in mind that $178 Mil of Debt / Liabilities are the Bean Counter's mythical formulations of imaginary Lease Liabilities at interim 31 Dec 2019

    A deviation from the 30 Jun 2019 comparatives reported. But then must be expected with what could be high cost plant / vehicles.

    Presumably the counterbalancing entries for any portion not run through P&L must be buried within Plant Property & Equipment at 31 Dec 2019

    Including the forward Lease nonsense obviously shoots the ratios of % Shareholder Funds to Total Assets out to the ridiculously scant % levels

    Intangibles are not all that excessive

    Possibly easier to eliminate the Lease nonsense & forward Liabilities out to get any guide for comparison

    NPAT is fairly small on Turnover through the job -- to point one would hope there weren't too many extreme Taranaki Headwinds in any one period

    Working Capital in the 6 months looks to have deteriorated slightly (after removing Lease liability nonsense)

    Depreciation possibly reserves considerable revenues cash in this sector nevertheless, but unchanged Equity could have suggested
    some strengthening & Cap Raise could have warranted Board's attention especially with Covid-19 clouds blowing in.

    Based on SP to NTA, & to Earnings / Div - my gut feeling leans to overpriced by Mr Market, which seems to have been bourne out by the long slide down from the buck or so south from Dec 19 forward to more recent times.

    An excess of Tail winds across many days of a reporting period may be required to help ease the load up towards summit & across the buck line again.
    Last edited by nztx; 19-08-2020 at 09:24 PM.

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