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  1. #11
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    Expecting some positives on this stock shortly.

  2. #12
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gbogo View Post
    Expecting some positives on this stock shortly.
    Holding this one patiently waiting for that mammoth pipeline to come to fruition... hopefully seamlessly.

    Might have to wait another 12 months for the market to be caught up with it.

  3. #13
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    Positives will be coming but what are you expecting shortly?

  4. #14
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    Pleased to see the drop in TLT share price, especially in view of positive news for the future. May buy soon.

  5. #15
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    http://www.standard.net.au/story/514...ms-on-the-way/

    Should hear about the Dundonnell wind farm investment soon...

  6. #16
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    "The Group’s development activity is being prioritised
    on progressing the Dundonnell Wind Farm (~ 300 MW)
    for an investment decision in early CY18. Now that
    the Victorian Renewable Energy Target legislation
    has passed through the Victorian State Parliament,
    the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme
    to contract for 650 MW of renewable energy has
    commenced and final bids are due on 14 February
    2018. It is expected that Dundonnell Wind Farm
    will be a competitive project in this process but it is
    acknowledged that the competition for contracts is
    likely to be strong."


    I do not know enough about this space to have an opinion on their deservedness of this contract.
    Big opportunity nonetheless.

    One of the only growth plays in a somewhat boring yield centric industry.
    higher risk investment for sure as debt will most certainly be a necessity.
    Dividends will be an afterthought as well with TLT until we see them develop their hearts out.

    I do not see the market pricing in 1/4 of these developments.

    market cap of 625m TLT CURRENT
    WIND SOLAR
    Tararua Stage 1,2,3 - NZ 161 MW nil
    Mahinerangi Stage 1 - NZ 36 MW nil
    Snowtown Stage 1,2 - AUS 371 MW nil
    Blayney - AUS 10 MW nil
    Crookwell - AUS 5 MW nil
    Total 583 MW nil
    PIPELINE CAPACITY
    WIND SOLAR
    Dundonnell - AUS 350 MW nil
    Salt Creek - AUS 54 MW nil
    Palmer - AUS 375 MW nil
    Kaiwera Downs - NZ 240 MW nil
    Mahinerangi Stage 2 - NZ 160 MW nil
    Rye Park - AUS 327 MW nil
    Waverly - NZ 130 MW nil
    Waddi - AUS 105 MW 40 MW
    Western Downs - AUS nil 250 MW
    Snowtown North - AUS nil 50 MW
    Dysart - AUS nil 100 MW
    Total 1741 MW 440 MW
    Last edited by hardt; 29-01-2018 at 07:20 AM.

  7. #17
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Fairly material contract leading into 2030 with 100% contracted revenues ex Merdian for Salt Creek.

    Forecasted average annual contribution up to 2021. ( assumptions of uncontracted revenues were 15-20% PA - ( not anymore ) )

    Revenues AUDm 21 - 25
    Op Costs AUDm 4.6 - 4.7
    EBITDAF AUDm 16 - 20

    Forecast source - https://www.tiltrenewables.com/docum...ntDecision.pdf

    Markets cold shoulder can only last so long

    This being the smallest of the incoming developments...
    Think of the annual contributions from sites with 7 times the production of Salt Creek.
    Last edited by hardt; 01-02-2018 at 08:19 PM.

  8. #18
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    Big overhang from TECT's stake for now.

    If the TECT giveaway proceeds, the cash required could be gained entirely from selling their share in Tilt, since its hardly a strategic stake for the trust.

  9. #19
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    Assuming Dundonnell goes ahead, tilt will need capital from its shareholders with IFT indicating it’ll do so (not surprising given their cash position). It’ll be interesting what this’ll mean for the trust, does anyone have any idea what this’ll translate to on a per share basis?

  10. #20
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by huxley View Post
    Assuming Dundonnell goes ahead, tilt will need capital from its shareholders with IFT indicating it’ll do so (not surprising given their cash position). It’ll be interesting what this’ll mean for the trust, does anyone have any idea what this’ll translate to on a per share basis?
    TECT owns (27%) of TLT = 83,878,838/312,973,000

    1000GWh has been proposed for Dundonnell at a cost of A650,000,000
    Obviously this massive project will be split into two-three stages.

    Financials of the project should be coming soon "Mid 2018" with construction in "late 2018"

    https://www.tiltrenewables.com/docum...r_Dec_2017.pdf

    - I only just realised this does not answer your question.

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