TLT - Tilt Renewables

[hardt]

A month before schedule on a smaller project like salt creek and an implied bump to the lower level of that 120-127 EBITDAF guidance...

Looking forward to the next couple years of tilt.

[hardt]

TPower is valued at $1,800M and set to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $205-220M
Mercury is valued at $4,555M and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $550M
Meridian is valued at $8,000 and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $640-680M ( Couldn't find an actual forecast from MEL)

Tilt with a pipeline possible of tripling total generation is valued by the market at $650M with current operating assets to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $120-127M...

Understand these pivotal stages of heavy capital intensive developments and investments by Tilt has put plenty of would be investors off... until all is proven and the cash flows through to shareholders pockets.
They have a sizeable return profile if plans are executed in keeping with their past of consistently developing core long term assets.

Not saying the valuation of a core generator will ever match that of consumer facing Gentailers, but that gap will tighten.

[stur066]

Anybody worried about their debt position?

2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
=2.23/0.25
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates? If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?

***disc new to investing***

[Jerry]

I can never understand the mystery moves of the big gentailers. Their PEs are high, they write down over a billion dollars annually in depreciation (all together), charge like wounded bulls for electricity and still their earnings are very modest.

[Hectorplains]

I can never understand the mystery moves of the big gentailers. Their PEs are high, they write down over a billion dollars annually in depreciation (all together), charge like wounded bulls for electricity and still their earnings are very modest.

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

[bull....]

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

agree fcf is most important. tlt if goes to plan should rival the other gentailers in time as far as size goes.

[hardt]

Anybody worried about their debt position?

2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
=2.23/0.25
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates? If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?

***disc new to investing***

Debt is a necessity, without it how will the $2bn pipeline get built...

TERM	NZD REPAYMENTS	NZ WAIR%	AUD REPAYMENTS	AU WAIR%
<1 Year	$14.6m	4.00%	$24.1m	3.40%
>1<2 Years	$15.2m	4.40%	$177.8m	3.90%
>2<5 Years	$82.1m	5.20%	$213.2m	4.80%
>5 Years	$11.0m	5.70%	$105.5M	5.10%

[kiora]

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

And their development margins if not held long term

[kiora]

Solar not the answer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...-national-grid

[fish]

Solar not the answer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...-national-grid

Solar power is not the answer on its own-this article shows problems that may happen if development proceeds faster than planning.
I have been in the whitsundays for the past 2 weeks-cloudless skies and sun every day so I am not surprised they have surplus solar.

Can you translate that to nz?
Has queensland got hydro where generation can be quickly reduced?
Has it got smart meetering?
Could that surplus power be stored -eg hot water tanks reprogrammed ?
Could that surplus power be used-reverse hydro,batteries,aircon,freezers ?

Dont discount solar-its clean ,green power .