2017 Stock Picking Contest

[Balance]

Bugger! Investor420 took out the grand prize for picking ‘em losers!

[winner69]

Bugger! Investor420 took out the grand prize for picking ‘em losers!

you were so so close mate .....at 4pm you were last ...at 5pm you were 2nd last

[Beagle]

The NZX50 started the year 6974 (Wed 4th January) and closed at 8398 (Fri Dec 29th). That makes a gain of 20.4%. Note that the NZX50 is an accumulation index that includes dividends so it is a fitting yardstick for the stock picking contest that also includes dividends. My competition score was 21.95%. So that means I have beaten the index by 1.5 percentage points. I am absolutely chuffed at this result. Why? Because my value based strategy should cause me to under perform the index by a couple of percentage points in high growth years, but outperform the index by 5 or 6 percentage points in not so good years. So with such a good year on the market my expectation was for an 18.5% gain, not 22%.

Very pleasing from my perspective as well because as some competitors who have done well are inclined to forget at competition end, successful investing is all about getting the best result you can for the risk you want to take. At competition end, the risk by definition is zero because the competition is done and dusted. But at the start of the year everyone had a different risk they were willing to take and I wasn't willing to take any big gambles. The competition was a good approximation to my actual portfolio so all gains I made were real. So to get an above average result using my low risk strategy was just brilliant. Thanks very much for PT for rescuing the contest, and was glad to hear that klid was Ok!

SNOOPY

An ETF would have given you ostensibly the same result with a LOT less risk due to greater diversification. Just saying. With all the effort required to research stocks and follow them, personally speaking the hound sees a market performance as a poor performance because an ETF would have saved me hundreds of hours work for the same result.
The hound got 42 point something percent in the comp which is something that I am happy with for a modest risk portfolio, approx. double the market. Never content to rest on my hind paws though and as always keeping my snout to the ground looking for more good feeds in 2018. Beagle's love their food don't they mate

[klid]

Ahh!!! thanks PT I used your table to make a static page of 2017 results like I did for the previous years!

Yes Google seemingly abandoned their API; which isn't too surprising as I think it's something they kinda just left switched on by accident or something. When I get some time I'll find another way to get prices.

The dividends coming from NZX should still be coming through.

[Snoopy]

An ETF would have given you ostensibly the same result with a LOT less risk due to greater diversification. Just saying. With all the effort required to research stocks and follow them, personally speaking the hound sees a market performance as a poor performance because an ETF would have saved me hundreds of hours work for the same result.

An index hugging fund would have given 'much the same result', depends on how you define 'much the same result'. To me a gain of 1.5% percentage points over an above the index is significant, especially when I adopted a strategy that I expected to underperform{*} the index in good times. Of course the ETF would take their cut of say 0.5% off the index return. I paid much less commission (almost zilch) than that on my 'competition five'. So my actual after fees performance would have been better by ( 1.5%+ 0.5% =) two percentage points. Research other than reading the headlines cost no time as far as Spark and Restaurant Brands went, because I chose to spend my research time on other shares, not in the competition. Of course I have spent may hours researching both Spark and Restaurant Brands in previous years so that once the investment truck got rolling I could sit back and harvest the results. I spent a little time on Skellerup and rather more time on Contact Energy. But actually I quite enjoy the research so I am hard pressed to see it all as just a cost.

This year I would have spent just as much time researching Sky City than any other share. Sky City did not perform for me this year. But I am not an investor with a one year time horizon. So I was happy to 'apparently waste my time' on this as I believe SKC will outperform in future years and all my work will pay off.

I do agree though that for people not interested in researching companies themselves, some kind of exchange traded fund is often the smart investment option.

The hound got 42 point something percent in the comp which is something that I am happy with for a modest risk portfolio, approx. double the market. Never content to rest on my hind paws though and as always keeping my snout to the ground looking for more good feeds in 2018. Beagle's love their food don't they mate

Not meaning to diminish your efforts Beagle, 42% is a fantastic annual return. But is that indicative of your actual market return for the year? If not, are you not engaging in a game of fantasy self deception?

SNOOPY

(*) Just to be clear, a goal of underperforming the index is usually foolish. But a goal to outperform the index over the business cycle is not foolish, even if it means that you will underperform the index in good years if you adopt that strategy. It is of course impossible to know what will be a good year in advance, without the benefit of hindsight!

[Joshuatree]

Just letting you know its the last day for the ASX comp today if you want to have ago.

[Joshuatree]

Whoops, a reprieve, last day is today for entering the aussie stock comp, go for it.