2017 Stock Picking Contest

[winner69]

I can't seem to get an updated result for this 2017. When I go into the rankings it is months old.
What am I doing wrong. Cheers

Paper Tiger does updating. Try this

https://papertiger.asia/st2017/

[Beagle]

Paper Tiger does updating. Try this

https://papertiger.asia/st2017/

I believe this is this is testimony to the benefits of being a well informed participant on ST. A mid field performance at 106th place gained 31.5% and I believe the NZX50 is up just 23% by comparison. (Haven't looked at performance relative to other indices movements.)

[Oliver Mander]

NZX = 22.2%. Have just done the calc for my own purposes!

[Beagle]

Congrats to all 130 participants who beat the NZX50, well done, give yourself a pat on the back and the hound would like to extend sympathy to his fellow Beagle Snoopy who only just missed the cut.

[winner69]

And Balance deserves a special mention ...he set out to come last and lose the most and come last he did.

It does take an awful lot of skill to pick the likes of the NZO, PEB, CGL, SEA and VIL - all perennial losers - knowing that if one came ‘right’ he wouldn’t be last.

Well done Balance me old mate

Addition - was another update since I posted and Balance was pipped at the post and was only second last. Never mind ..you still a hero mate

[Snow Leopard]

The rules said that the competition ends with the close of trade on the last trading day of the year...
...which is/was today.

So these are the official results:

2017 NZX Stock Picking Contest

Updated: Fri, 29 Dec 17

Rank	Name	Selections	% Gain
1	Thor	SKO PPH SML AIR CEN	197.88%
2	Wetfish	SKO PPH THL TRA EVO	166.24%
3	Kaybee	SKO TRU ARV TRA MOA	126.14%
4	blobbles	ATM PPH XRO AIR HBL	117.88%
5	JK	ATM PPH FPH THL RYM	116.92%
6	MPC	ATM SML XRO AIR SUM	111.78%
7	Parrot	ATM SML RBD HBL SCL	110.25%
8	Top Dog	ATM FPH THL AIR HBL	103.48%
9	bohemian	ATM FPH THL AIR SCL	103.01%
10	Bosse1	ATM ERD XRO IFT WDT	101.95%
11	Awesome	ATM SML AIR MFT ARV	97.89%
12	Roadrunner	ATM PPH XRO ARV CBL	94.83%
13	see weed	ATM THL AIR HLG IFT	93.01%
14	JeremyALD	ATM THL RBD HLG IFT	92.06%
15	LadyGrey	ATM PPH AIR HBL BLT	91.14%
16	Everwood	ATM PPH XRO TIL MOA	90.58%
17	Scooter	ATM THL RBD RYM CVT	87.49%
18	BigBob	ATM NTL NZO RBC PEB	86.77%
19	bear	ATM XRO HBL CEN AIA	86.55%
20	rooster	ATM FPH RYM SUM FMS	83.50%
21	AE	PPH SML FPH THL CEN	83.41%
22	Yoda	ATM NTL THL BLT PIL	82.73%
23	waikare	ATM FPH HLG PGW TIL	82.62%
24	Felonius	NTL PPH HBL HLG MCK	82.00%
25	stef	ATM FPH THL HBL BLT	81.11%
26	upstart	PPH ERD XRO AIR IFT	81.04%
27	Haewai	NTL PPH FPH THL CAV	81.00%
28	Pricey	ATM PPH HBL CBL BLT	77.66%
29	Moose	ATM PPH NZR LIC GXH	77.58%
30	Toucan22	ATM SCT ALF SUM PEB	77.08%
31	J3Y	ATM HBL SCL CVT ANZ	76.78%
32	warthog	ATM AIR IFT EBO AIA	76.58%
33	mask	ATM SEK IFT MET NZR	74.90%
34	mfd	ATM XRO AIR SKL BLT	74.89%
35	NZSilver	ATM HBL CEN SUM TIL	74.11%
36	pak	ATM NTL EVO SEA BLT	73.08%
37	Left Field	ATM PPH FPH BLT PIL	72.83%
38	dela47	ATM THL AIR SUM BLT	72.57%
39	Rossimarnz	ATM THL AIR SUM PIL	72.34%
40	ShandyNZ	ATM SML RYM PEB BLT	70.79%
41	ras	ATM AIR HBL SKC PLX	68.55%
42	Fiskerking	PPH ERD FPH CEN TRA	68.50%
43	Kjula61	SML ERD FPH EBO WDT	66.72%
44	Antipodean	NTL AIR RBD HBL NZR	66.46%
45	Rabbi	ATM SUM EBO OGC ARV	63.92%
46	bullfrog	ERD OIC TTK HBL PLX	63.82%
47	zs_cecil	ATM XRO HBL PEB BLT	62.61%
48	Baa_Baa	ATM PPH ARV PLX OHE	62.31%
49	Stones	ATM ALF SPK ANZ FBU	62.26%
50	CodeRed	ATM NZR SPG OGC ANZ	60.25%
51	Numbersman	PPH THL AIR RYM FRE	59.38%
52	jimbo	SML AIR HBL SEK IFT	58.99%
53	JBmurc	NTL THL PGW NZO OGC	58.78%
54	S Elder	PPH FPH THL SUM CVT	58.60%
55	Harley	ATM THL MCK CBL PIL	57.61%
56	Deecimal	PPH NZK FPH CEN EVO	57.08%
57	Rust	OIC SCT FPH PGW CNU	56.56%
57	First NZ Capital	SML XRO FPH CEN TGH	55.27%
58	Cool Bear	NTL HBL PGW ARG AIA	54.42%
59	Grunta	ATM FPH STU PEB SLI	52.40%
60	Jantar	NWF THL AIR HLG IFT	51.62%
61	iceman	PPH THL HLG SAN TRA	51.29%
62	drrcd	NTL SML IFT EVO PIL	51.10%
63	Ratkin	ATM EBO RAK RBC SEA	51.03%
64	Pjai	FPH THL AIR HBL MFT	50.80%
65	biker	ATM CEN TRA RBC PEB	50.62%
66	ben28	PPH FPH MFT CEN AIA	50.29%
67	Ruaboy	SML HBL ALF SKL MVT	49.94%
68	MAGA!	NTL TPW MFT FRE STU	49.86%
68	Hamilton Hindin Greene	OIC FPH RYM GNE CNU	48.73%
69	Acegolfer	PPH THL HBL ARV STU	47.36%
70	horus1	ATM CVT TLT TRA PIL	46.56%
71	blockhead	FPH THL HBL SCL ZEL	46.39%
72	Risin Vortex	PPH RBD CDI IFT ARV	46.30%
73	Lola	SML GTK ALF FMS OHE	43.72%
74	ace5715	THL AIR HBL HLG SUM	43.32%
75	Federer	FPH THL AIR HBL TGH	43.11%
76	Bum_Burglar	NWF AIR HBL RYM CVT	42.95%
77	The hound	THL AIR SCL HLG SUM	42.85%
78	Mission	ATM HBL GXH MOA PLX	42.85%
79	PHuljich	PPH FPH EBO CVT BGP	42.17%
80	Eagle	ATM CVT TIL SEA OHE	41.93%
81	lac	THL RBD SEK RYM SUM	41.29%
82	spmcg	FPH THL HBL SUM AIA	40.62%
83	McGinty	ATM HLG TRA SLI PIL	40.21%
84	Muncha	SML SCL MFT NZR TRA	40.01%
85	kappa	SCT THL ALF SAN TRA	39.64%
85	Craigs Investment Partners	GTK RBD MFT CEN FSF	38.81%
86	Lawnmower man	THL AIR HBL HLG TRA	38.70%
87	Tongster	PPH HBL SUM MCK WHS	38.06%
88	Brucey09	PPH ALF MFT NZR AFT	37.85%
89	Nasi Goreng	SML AIR POT FSF GXH	37.75%
90	Jaa	GTK FPH THL TRA GEO	36.84%
91	JoshuaTree	GTK NWF FPH EVO CGL	36.65%
92	captainigloo	FPH HBL SCL SUM AIA	36.04%
93	KJ	THL AIR HBL SUM TRA	35.67%
94	crabs	FPH HBL ALF PGW LIC	35.01%
95	RMVonStock	MMH ALF EUT MFT CEN	34.97%
96	Duveldog	FPH DGL MGL SKL IKE	34.95%
97	slimshadow	SML AIR ZEL STU SCY	34.90%
98	MCCSA767	PPH ERD ARV EVO BLT	34.73%
98	Hobson Wealth Management	FPH RBD TPW MFT VGL	34.54%
99	Timid	THL HBL PGW SUM TWR	34.08%
100	taybay0404	SML ALF RYM AIA MOA	33.98%
101	james108	OIC RBD IFT MHJ EVO	33.61%
102	jumbo	SCT HBL IFT SUM NZR	33.13%
103	Lewylewylewy	THL RBD POT EBO NZR	33.02%
104	MAG	THL POT RYM SUM MCY	32.82%
105	BAFFLED	AIR HBL POT IFT FSF	32.78%
106	bung5	TTK AIR KMD CNU EVO	32.10%
107	shasta	XRO THL IFT NZX RBC	31.27%
108	thestg	AIR SCL IFT CEN EBO	31.18%
109	youngatheart	NTL PPH CGL BLT PIL	31.15%
110	Fiasco	SML SUM CNU AIA TIL	30.95%
111	percy	THL ALF HLG MCK TRA	30.50%
112	Tim23	NWF FPH NZO AIA AFT	30.31%
113	Harrison	NZK FPH SKC FSF EVO	30.12%
114	forest	THL ALF SAN SKL SDL	29.40%
115	newtrader	FPH AIR IFT EBO BGP	29.37%
116	Kelvin	AIR RBD HLG SUM TIL	29.11%
117	Patrick	RBD HBL SAN EBO VHP	28.81%
118	Penny	SML POT EBO MVN RBC	28.27%
119	Whemthat	GTK FPH VGL TIL EVO	27.78%
120	littletramp	GTK SCT ABA VGL MPG	27.74%
121	lee	THL HBL CEN CVT TIL	27.28%
122	exactchange	XRO HBL IFT ARV STU	27.12%
123	clips	AIR HBL SUM EBO AIA	26.89%
124	vici	GTK RYM EBO MHJ TIL	26.86%
125	Saint	THL AIR HLG TRA EVO	25.65%
126	Way Over The Hill	SCT HBL CNU AIA WBC	25.38%
127	Vaygor1	ALF RYM CDI SUM AIA	25.12%
127	Forsyth Barr	FPH THL IFT CBL EVO	24.49%
128	gmatt	NTL THL RBC CAV BLT	24.31%
129	ari	SCT FPH POT RBC SEA	23.91%
130	Big Blind	AIR SCL IFT FRE EVO	23.37%
131	Crackity	NWF NZO NZX NZR NPT	23.02%
132	Jay	AIR HLG SUM EBO TIL	22.81%
133	S Club5	SCL SKL SUM SPN SKC	22.34%
134	Hamish	FPH IFT SKC AIA MHJ	22.18%
135	Snoopy	RBD SKL CEN SKC SPK	21.95%
136	Graham	HBL DGL VHP ARG TIL	21.34%
137	Bilbo	PPH GTK ARV SLI BLT	21.04%
138	EJK	TTK THL IFT TGH BLT	21.00%
138	JBWere	FPH MFT CEN FSF EVO	20.91%
139	Taijon	SCT FPH NZO RBC FBU	20.80%
140	h2so4	RBD ALF MCK MET AWF	20.65%
141	buddha beer	AIR ALF RYM IFT PLX	19.35%
142	garfy	THL AIR SCL ARV PIL	19.07%
142	MSL Capital Markets	SML HBL AIA GXH PLX	18.97%
143	troyvdh	RYM CEN SUM PFI MET	18.12%
144	greater fool	POT CDI NZO MCK ANZ	18.07%
145	kiwichick	AIR POT AIA WBC ANZ	17.75%
146	Stevevai1983	RYM IFT SUM EBO ARV	17.53%
147	Sun Lee	FPH CEN TWR CVT EVO	17.53%
148	TFA	PPH HBL MET MPG OHE	17.35%
149	duncan22	GTK XRO TIL CBL OHE	17.23%
150	Noodles	THL RBD TRA AWF CBL	16.93%
151	Mangom	FPH TPW NZR AIA FBU	16.88%
152	Mshierlaw	TPW IFT SUM EBO STU	16.78%
153	Crow	GTK SUM MEL ARV MPG	16.57%
154	Deej5	HBL VHP ARG PFI AIA	16.42%
155	Teeps	SCL RYM SUM AIA CBL	16.17%
156	Johndes	HBL MEL FSF SPK ARV	15.95%
157	Major von Tempsky	GFL HLG MFT SPK FBU	15.72%
158	minerbarejet	THL GMT IPL VCT PEB	15.25%
159	hcpp88	AIR ZEL CVT AIA ANZ	14.32%
160	DarkHorse	THL HLG TRA SCY EVO	13.89%
161	klid	ALF IFT MCK TRA SCY	13.79%
162	Farcanal	FPH IFT NZR ANZ PEB	13.61%
163	lissica	RYM IFT MFT FRE GXH	13.05%
164	bull....	HBL SCL FSF NZR CAV	12.35%
165	pedro.nz	XRO MFT SUM AIA BLT	11.94%
166	ABhatnagar	PPH RYM TGH CAV MPG	11.89%
167	777	GMT PCT ARG PFI KPG	10.99%
168	Alz99	AIR CEN PCT ARV PEB	10.97%
169	amalgam	THL ALF FLI TRA PIL	10.60%
170	Rob Optimist	FPH IFT CVT CBL PEB	10.28%
171	silverblizzard888	PPH RBD RBC CAV BLT	10.14%
172	WLDSTH	MFT MCK TGG AIA TME	9.97%
173	SAM2103	RYM MFT EBO VHP BFW	9.68%
174	mani99	PGW MCK AWK KPG STU	9.53%
175	JayRiggs	HLG IFT VGL TIL TGH	9.31%
176	Balloon	THL ABA RAK TIL MOA	9.23%
177	whitewatergeo	XRO SKL SPK TME BLT	9.00%
178	dinkv	RBD IFT AWK BGP FBU	8.93%
179	Xerof	AIR HBL IFT PEB OHE	6.93%
180	but-what-do-i-know	SCL HLG MEL ARV BLT	6.81%
181	Huxley	HLG KMD IFT ANZ BLT	6.60%
182	Toulouse - Luzern	SCL MCK AIA SDL CBL	6.41%
183	clip	SCL ALF AIA CBL MPG	5.47%
184	hogie	FPH SKC NZR FBU BFW	5.33%
185	Grimy	AIR PGW CEN TGH BLT	5.15%
186	Pierre	THL AIR TIL PEB BLT	3.76%
187	beetills	HBL CDI ANZ RBC CGL	3.20%
188	Scottjamesy	THL AIR SUM BLT PIL	2.47%
189	Ewnet13	HBL GNE NZO BFW CGF	2.12%
190	airedale	MEL SPK MHJ TIL TGH	2.11%
191	angrytoenail	XRO MFT SPK PEB BLT	2.09%
192	reacher	PPH AIR SLI OHE PIL	1.95%
193	riggers	SCL PGW TGG AIA VIL	1.20%
194	BlackPeter	HBL MCK TRA STU MPG	0.83%
195	Paper Tiger	OIC FRE TRA BLT PIL	0.49%
195	Vulcan Capital	NZK TRU TRA PEB PIL	0.34%
196	Placemakers	THL FSF NZR MOA PLX	-0.71%
197	Southern_Belle	HBL ALF TIL SEA PIL	-0.98%
198	mikeybycrikey	XRO AIR RBC PLX OHE	-1.29%
199	Rokko	THL IKE CNU PEB BLT	-2.42%
200	Janner	SKL WDT ARV TRA CAV	-5.05%
201	SCOTTY	GFL FLI NZR CGL SLI	-7.31%
202	golden city	THL NZR PEB CGL CAV	-7.90%
203	Gonzo	HBL EBO STU CAV PIL	-10.63%
204	watford	MEL ARV TRA TGH BLT	-12.28%
205	Jotal	SCL BGP TGH EVO BLT	-12.41%
206	QOH	PGW SUM SPK BLT PIL	-13.90%
207	Dogs of the NZX	AIR AFT EVO PEB PLX	-13.91%
208	RGR367	XRO RAK PEB OHE BLT	-15.25%
209	Sure Thing	THL SEA PEB MPG PLX	-17.48%
210	davflaws	ALF NZR PEB PLX BLT	-19.12%
211	Balance	NZO SEA PEB CGL VIL	-30.43%
212	investor420	AFT EVO PEB GEO OHE	-32.17%

Well done one and all.

ありがとうございました
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Gains and Losses for each chosen share.

Rank	Stock	% Gain
1	SKO	655.17%
2	ATM	287.98%
3	NTL	183.33%
4	PPH	132.96%
5	SML	128.57%
6	ERD	123.75%
7	OIC	112.92%
8	GTK	91.31%
9	TTK	88.37%
10	NZK	82.68%
11	NWF	81.07%
12	XRO	72.32%
13	SCT	67.57%
14	FPH	67.08%
15	THL	66.20%
16	MMH	54.71%
17	AIR	50.46%
18	RBD	45.71%
19	HBL	45.67%
20	SEK	44.58%
21	DGL	43.35%
22	SCL	43.33%
23	ALF	41.83%
24	GFL	37.52%
25	HLG	34.70%
26	KMD	34.26%
27	POT	31.88%
28	MGL	31.58%
29	EUT	31.50%
30	RYM	30.36%
31	TPW	30.36%
32	CDI	29.28%
33	PGW	28.26%
34	GNE	26.34%
35	SAN	26.13%
36	IFT	25.68%
37	SKL	25.06%
38	MFT	24.59%
39	CEN	22.24%
40	ABA	20.28%
41	SUM	19.58%
42	MEL	19.53%
43	FRE	16.94%
44	TRU	16.67%
45	NZO	16.10%
46	GMT	16.09%
47	MCY	16.09%
48	PCT	15.88%
49	EBO	14.19%
50	NZX	14.16%
51	IPL	13.49%
52	SPN	13.49%
53	MCK	13.33%
54	FMS	12.50%
55	VHP	12.33%
56	VCT	12.04%
57	FLI	11.04%
58	TWR	10.70%
59	ARG	10.25%
60	SKC	10.23%
61	FSF	10.20%
62	ZEL	9.68%
63	PFI	9.31%
64	MET	9.11%
65	MVT	8.57%
66	AWK	8.53%
67	IKE	7.69%
68	CVT	7.19%
69	NZR	7.13%
70	CNU	6.94%
71	SPK	6.50%
72	SPG	6.41%
73	VGL	4.96%
74	TGG	4.87%
75	AIA	4.56%
76	TLT	3.67%
77	KPG	3.41%
78	MHJ	3.32%
79	TME	2.50%
80	WBC	2.13%
81	WDT	0.00%
82	OGC	0.00%
83	RAK	0.00%
84	ANZ	-0.27%
85	ARV	-2.15%
86	NPT	-3.35%
87	TRA	-3.55%
88	TIL	-4.91%
89	STU	-5.90%
90	AWF	-6.74%
91	LIC	-7.82%
92	SCY	-8.32%
93	BGP	-10.56%
94	MVN	-11.29%
95	SDL	-12.22%
96	TGH	-13.87%
97	CBL	-16.96%
98	AFT	-17.27%
99	EVO	-19.56%
100	WHS	-21.24%
101	RBC	-22.00%
102	FBU	-24.74%
103	SEA	-25.00%
104	PEB	-31.58%
105	GXH	-32.35%
106	BFW	-33.08%
107	MOA	-35.44%
108	CGL	-36.67%
109	GEO	-36.84%
110	CGF	-44.44%
111	CAV	-44.59%
112	MPG	-45.41%
113	PLX	-51.61%
114	SLI	-55.56%
115	OHE	-55.61%
116	BLT	-61.36%
117	PIL	-62.50%
118	VIL	-75.00%

[Beagle]

Fascinating to see STU, FBU and MPG all make the sick puppies list in the midst of a building boom and a booming sharemarket. Worse, this is not isolated to 2017 by any means. Construction / Building sector returns over the years have been very poor relative to the market. Not sure why so many managed funds continued with their persistent approach to an approximate market weighting to this sector, go figure ?
Not quite sure what to make of this other than to steer well clear of that sector for the foreseeable future.

[Snoopy]

Congrats to all 130 participants who beat the NZX50, well done, give yourself a pat on the back and the hound would like to extend sympathy to his fellow Beagle Snoopy who only just missed the cut.

The NZX50 started the year 6974 (Wed 4th January) and closed at 8398 (Fri Dec 29th). That makes a gain of 20.4%. Note that the NZX50 is an accumulation index that includes dividends so it is a fitting yardstick for the stock picking contest that also includes dividends. My competition score was 21.95%. So that means I have beaten the index by 1.5 percentage points. I am absolutely chuffed at this result. Why? Because my value based strategy should cause me to under perform the index by a couple of percentage points in high growth years, but outperform the index by 5 or 6 percentage points in not so good years. So with such a good year on the market my expectation was for an 18.5% gain, not 22%.

Very pleasing from my perspective as well because as some competitors who have done well are inclined to forget at competition end, successful investing is all about getting the best result you can for the risk you want to take. At competition end, the risk by definition is zero because the competition is done and dusted. But at the start of the year everyone had a different risk they were willing to take and I wasn't willing to take any big gambles. The competition was a good approximation to my actual portfolio so all gains I made were real. So to get an above average result using my low risk strategy was just brilliant. Thanks very much for PT for rescuing the contest, and was glad to hear that klid was Ok!

SNOOPY

[RGR367]

Okay. So pure speculative stocks won't cut it for a contest. Lesson learned so entered only 3 speculations for the next one