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Member
I have put a post on the Overseas board....BeeBop does the UK.
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Hi PT interesting post. I too bought into TWR but am still happy to hold. Mainly went in on the bad news on a value play. Still on the fence as to if I would add more as I think they have a viable business model. Any thoughts on why you didnt buy more or did the recent downgrade scare you away. I did a simialr thing with HBL which turned out nicely. Although HBL is a different profile I still went in on 1.18 in April 16.
I just finished https://www.amazon.com/Art-Execution.../dp/085719495X which talks about a few of your scenarios. Personally I think the NZ market has a higher risk profile than they talk about in the book v USA (less liquidity/markets not fair value) and fewer stocks to select.
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Member
My worst and most irritating mistake of 2016 was trying to catch the falling knife, resulting in the loss of two fingers and a thumb.
MBE:asx released a profit downgrade and a very confusing announcement that the market hated. I thought I could time the bounce correctly as I'd fluked the dead cat a couple of times before in similar circumstances. Nope missed it completely.
The first mistake was obviously buying before the dust had settled to at least provide a good idea of where the bottom is going to be. But my second and more egregious mistake was panic selling once I realised I'd stuffed up.
Lost around 32% on that trade, whereas if I had let the dust settle after my first mistake, I would have exited a couple of days later at around -10% instead.
Not a big loss in terms of $$$ because my capital base is pretty low but still very fricking annoying. Happened in late November as well so reduced a stellar 2016 28% ROE to around 18%
Last edited by levin123; 01-02-2017 at 01:50 PM.
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Plenty to choose from, but let's go for not selling PEB>$1.50.
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Hindsight is not allowed
Originally Posted by GTM 3442
Plenty to choose from, but let's go for not selling PEB>$1.50.
Not one to quibble but that would have been you worst mistake of 2014.
But what did you know at that time that you ignored that made it such a bad mistake?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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A many hatted Tiger
Originally Posted by Schrodinger
Hi PT interesting post. I too bought into TWR but am still happy to hold. Mainly went in on the bad news on a value play. Still on the fence as to if I would add more as I think they have a viable business model. Any thoughts on why you didnt buy more or did the recent downgrade scare you away. I did a simialr thing with HBL which turned out nicely. Although HBL is a different profile I still went in on 1.18 in April 16.
I just finished https://www.amazon.com/Art-Execution.../dp/085719495X which talks about a few of your scenarios. Personally I think the NZ market has a higher risk profile than they talk about in the book v USA (less liquidity/markets not fair value) and fewer stocks to select.
I am going to assume that your question is "After making the decision to sell your investment in TWR have you considered buying in again since?" and then deviate from there.
On chucking my TWR investment I also chucked my valuation and have not done another since but I have noted the possibility of them splitting into 2 (again!).
So I have no valuation to compare the current SP with, and I will not do another valuation until such time as my screening software flags it up as something to look at, which it will not do whilst the price keeps dropping away.
It will need an upturn and some increased volume to become an investment of interest.
I also note that some people seem to have the need to try and recover their losses on a stock with the same stock. That is an emotional attachment which does no good.
I would advise anyone to ensure that their reasons for holding a loss are really, really sound and if you sell out do not let the prior loss be the reason to buy in again.
As for HBL, still regard it as a good company and my last buy was on the Brexit dip as I thought that price was less than value (and I had some spare change).
Not read the book - Kobo want US$20.
[footnote: I also, with my trading hat on, bought and sold TWR twice last year - but that is a different story and I am not going to start the greatest trading mistakes thread].
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
.... I also note that some people seem to have the need to try and recover their losses on a stock with the same stock. That is an emotional attachment which does no good.
Never a truer word said.
Historically, I have been super guilty of this.
Working this issue through in my brain and finally coming to terms with and accepting I had been making emotional decisions in this area was an important step towards level-headedness... a quality in which I still fall short, but for other reasons.
I was lucky. On the occasions the above scenario took place, the outcomes for me were in fact splendid, but I know now that in the few instances I did this in the past (and with some pretty high stakes I might add), my rationale was just plain wrong.
Last edited by Vaygor1; 04-02-2017 at 02:12 AM.
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Mistakes that we make in markets
- Sell stock too early
- Buy stocks too late
- Sell stocks and make losses after keeping them for a considerable period and then miss one of the biggest gains.
- Buy and hold companies with poor fundamentals
- Trade very often and then lose money
- Rotate stocks form quality stocks to new found glamour stocks (they cannot make predictable profits for a considerable period) and then lose money.
- Chased stocks based on recent strong performance (Stick with your investment plan and rebalance, which is the opposite of chasing performance.)
- Giving too much attention to financial media
- Invest without a plan
- Buying shares in a business which you do not understand
- Being Driven by Impatience
- Following the crowd
Anwar to successful investment is doing the opposite to the above.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 02-06-2018 at 10:24 PM.
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