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Thread: BeeBop does UK

  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks give us a heads when the timing and exchange rate are right.
    Currently:

    CU71.L on Yahoo! at GBP103.49
    IBTL.L on Yahoo! at GBP4.1133
    GBP/USD on Yahoo! at USD1.2837

    You now have the data, human - time to take a deep breath and enter the matrix. . . .
    Last edited by GTM 3442; 23-11-2019 at 11:56 PM.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks give us a heads when the timing and exchange rate are right.
    Currently:

    CU71.L on Yahoo! at GBP103.49
    IBTL.L on Yahoo! at GBP4.1133
    GBP/USD on Yahoo! at USD1.2837

    You now have the data, human - time to take a deep breath and enter the matrix. . . .
    Last edited by GTM 3442; 23-11-2019 at 07:02 PM.

  3. #108
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    Default Is the matrix correct?

    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    Like you, BeeBop, I have a use (a need even) for pounds for use in the UK .

    So, having decided that Iím going to have pounds, the question becomes where do I hold those pounds as they accumulate...


    The exchange rate is important

    I know the average value of my pounds in USD, and itís relatively easy to construct a matrix of fund price and exchange rate which you can plug into a spreadsheet to tell you the effect of the combination of exchange rate movements and fund prices, which gives you entry, accumulate, decumulate, and exit points. After all, if the GBP/USD goes from (say) 1.21 to 1.29, your fund is worth a whole lot fewer pounds!


    GBP/USD rises, Fund price rises
    GBP/USD rises, Fund price falls
    GBP/USD falls, Fund price rises
    GBP/USD falls, Fund price falls

    So to summarize Ė pick your asset class, pick your duration, pick your vehicle, and work out what the effect of currency movements will be, and do daily data entry.

    And never forget that timing and exchange rate are incredibly important
    Looking at the matrix, it does not look correct.

    What do you think.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toulouse - Luzern View Post
    Looking at the matrix, it does not look correct.

    What do you think.
    Dunno.

    My immediate concern is with the result of the upcoming UK election, and whether to buy the FTSE in dollars, the S&P in pounds, or to sit on my hands until B-Day.

  5. #110
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    Well, I had a short detour to look at Brazil, but the rocketing IBOVESPA is balanced by the plunging real, so no, nothing to see here, move along please.

    In the UK, with the strengthening pound, it seems as if a short-term punt on the FTSE100 in an ETF denominated in USD is in order.

    I'm anticipating a Conservative victory in the election with a small but workable majority, and a subsequent euphoric rally in the FTSE and the GBP.

    Fingers crossed.

    On the other side of the world, the Australian bank term deposits are coming due, but the current Australian TD rates aren't worth having. So I think I'll ship the AUD to Luxembourg and put them into an Australian government bond ETF. No change to the asset allocation, no change to the currency diversification either. And with the RBA looking likely to cut rather than hold the equivalent of the OCR, there's the possibiity of a small uptick in price.

  6. #111
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    Hopefully you made your moves soon after your post.

    My lazy inaction has paid very nicely, well into double digit gains on horribly undervalued stocks and funds over the past two days - even accounting for the improved GBP value. My highest gains have been in Lloyds, Merchants, and Throgmorton, with the others doing very nicely also (but they were not as badly undervalued).

    I have started returning spare USD to NZD to "earn" interest in my flexible loans (currently funding my property development activity)...might as well leave it there and transfer to the UK to pay school fees....better saving interest payments in NZ than over contributing to a UK bank account giving me 0%.

    GTM 3442, again, you did really well on selling your bond funds when you did.

  7. #112
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    Sometimes the best course of action turns out to be doing nothing. Congratulations on your creative and well-rewarded inertia!

    For me, I also see this as a year to remit NZD to take advantage of New Zealand interest rates.

  8. #113
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    BeeBop is happy with how the portfolio progressed through the year. All credit goes to near absolute inertia as Mr GTM 3442 has noted.

    I had not intended to be so hands off but with the unpredictability of Mr Trump and Mr and Mrs Brexit, I had little choice, unless of course I had felt that I could more wisely predict the future than anyone else.

    As the folios were growing, I realized a nasty wee loss in my AIM listed EMR share at -60% - these things have to be done sometimes! The proceeds were put into Lloyds down at 54p due to the high dividend payout rate and my lack of interest in seeking a growth based home for it. In hindsight, I think I did the right thing as LLOY.L are currently trading at between 62 and 65p.

    The real winner for me since mid-December has been THRG.L (BlackRock Throgmorton) which is a small cap growth trust...its performance is beginning to threaten the leadership of my MNKS.L (Monks) holding.

    So now I question what my new year moves will be. The income folio (for child's education) requires no action other than reinvestment of dividends which will according go into either SLI.L, MRCH.L or LLOY.L; I don't think I want to do anything interesting here merely hold the slow and fairly steady growth (if I regard growth in a 2-year timeframe and ignore the volatility). The growth folio may get a few more pennies as leftovers from unspent cash get directed to the UK. Maybe I will find a new trust that is at a discount and in the tech sphere - who knows - but the folio has experienced a 20% upswing since 12 December!

    Then again, comes the bigger question, do I continue to hold? I tell myself that I will, my rules say I will, but it is incredibly tempting to take all profits in the growth folio out of the market and secure them in NZ (at a secure exchange rate) within one of my mortgages. But no, I won't do that because I don't need to!

    Anyway, this year looks to be another year of carry-aboard living along with long-distance hiking. Counting up my NZ days (due to family issues), I am getting close to the maximum days allowable as a non-resident....but never fear....careful flight pricing means that I can fly from the UK back to the Middle East (go figure pricing?) and down to Asia on one ticket, spend a couple of weeks there and then fly on to NZ optimizing travel and days! It won't be hard to work while eating several bowls of noodles in a vibrant Asian city.

  9. #114
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    Another month has past and the volatility remains. I have been investing in shares since 1996 and other than 2001, I can not remember volatility to this level when you account for 2018 also. Not even the GFC, for me, was as swing-based as this.

    However, the net result is that the folios are certainly on an upwards trajectory. There is not one single share (save my NZX SCT) that is down. BlackRock is full of energy as it shorted Woodford. I also didn’t like the Woodford fund, nor its ‘cult followers’...one arrogant 30 something told me I was naive for thinking Woodford wasn’t the best in his field and I should put everything into his fund! And of course, my trusty Monks...again volatile but up. Several others have come into their own and the dividends are coming in.

    I now have a short-list of some ITs that are at an unusual discount to their normal range....so am awaiting cash to buy...

    Meanwhile, I am waiting out some days in SEA enroute to NZ as I am not needed anywhere else until mid-February....of course, I am not complaining! Although the Coronavirus fear here is real, very very very real for what looks to be a good portion of the population. One bloke even had a baseballl cap tied around his face - each to their own security, I guess...and it kept his hands away from his nose and mouth (at least).

  10. #115
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    Whew! What a few weeks. Like most others, I can safely report that my folios are down, and comfortably so, you probably wouldn't miss the "significant ease". During February, I will still comfortably UP, now I am comfortably DOWN.

    However, this is where the "hedging" (by accident) has come into play. Our USD are now valuable and we suddenly have around a 10% uplift on our GBP and NZD buying power. Needless to say, as hard as it was through the sharemarket hype-days, I am thankful that we have had a heavy loading in cash. Cash was a necessity for our life-style as we have had a few crisis in the past few years, both political and personal - all now totally eclipsed by Coronavirus.

    My energies have been suddenly diverted to keeping my wee family together, somewhat unsuccessfully. The key component was urgently couriered from England to Southern NZ and now is contently tucked in a bedroom with Instagram, Netflix, and a dang USB speaker that was stupidly purchased as a "you made it back" present. The other half of the adult equation is under house arrest in our resident country and I as a non-citizen am barred from entry. Them's the breaks.

    So now, I am focusing on my other investments as the shares are just being left alone, as I did in the GFC and after 9/11. All generally good companies with low debt (see I learned through the GFC) and life will return to normal - look at post WWI and WWII - life returned to normal after those global crisis.

    Meanwhile, I am off to buy a car. I sold my old NZ get-around for $300 as it was no longer economic to fix - I have spotted a fairly solid 2010 1.4L NZ new car for under $7k that should last me a decade or so.

    Safe investing people; wait out the volatility, things will all be okay if we all do our bit.

    "The only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time".

  11. #116
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    Good luck with the car, congratulations on the family reunion, and commiserations to the other side of your family equation.

    In New Zealand, I am following the SSH notices on the NZX to see what the "big boys" are doing - be it buy or sell.

    Currencywise, I am getting nervous about the US and it's dollar. If the current COVID19 trend continues, and the current inept political situation continues, I see a possibility of a decline in the value of the USD. So I am looking for sensible countries with sensible currencies, where I can stash some cash under the blanket of a government guarantee or a deposit insurance regime.

    I'm not sure whether time is on my side or not. . .

  12. #117
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    Heavens, this has been a ride and I have still managed to make zero changes. With the low GBP and low NZD there have been some cash transfer opportunities, and I got super lucky to catch 55c US to the NZD a pure good luck, no planning situation.

    My conviction stock is doing poorly and sits at its purchase price down 80% from its all time high! Buffet would suggest I buy more, as would its fundamentals, but it made up such a large portion of my growth folio, I shall not put any more in.

    And of course, my big treasure, the baby brother of SMT, Monks, it goes from strength to strength and is toying yet again with its highs. In hind site, I could have even have traded it. But I am an absolutely useless trader that I don't bother trying.

    On another positive side, my healthcare holding is feeling quite perky and I am up about 25% from purchase price excluding my 5% yield from it. BBH.L.

    All of the others are uninteresting except for Lloyds bank that has successfully stopped dividend payments and dropped 20% but I don't think I will loose my shirt....Mr Lloyd will pop back up at some point.

    And I am still very fortunate to be 'stuck' in NZ!

    Happy times to you all.

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