NZSA Auckland - Meetings and Events

[Beagle]

Just a reminder for those interested in coming along, it is tomorrow night.
Non-members are most welcome.

You will want to hear Mark Lister's view on the NZX. Very interesting.

He's well worth listening too and I'd love to come along but I'm down at the SUM annual meeting and afterwards hanging out with Couta1, Iceman and others so getting the last flight home tomorrow evening.
I'll do you a good trade though. If you share Mark Lister's thoughts the following day I'll let you know the good gossip on what Julian Cook has to say at the SUM meeting. Sound like a plan ?

[whome]

He's well worth listening too and I'd love to come along but I'm down at the SUM annual meeting and afterwards hanging out with Couta1, Iceman and others so getting the last flight home tomorrow evening.
I'll do you a good trade though. If you share Mark Lister's thoughts the following day I'll let you know the good gossip on what Julian Cook has to say at the SUM meeting. Sound like a plan ?

Mark Lister presented a good potted view of the world economy. No real surprises.
NZ economy remains strong, continuing on from recent years, but interest rates and inflation are rising so net yields will be less.
World politics: Trump 15% Tax Pack is positive, especially for US banks & US manufacturing. Country election that Craigs will watch carefully is Italy (this was a surprise to me) early next year as only 50% of popn. is pro Europe (presume the other half are not). NZ economy growing 2-3% (good) driven by migration. Noted, Of the 70k net migration figure, 20-40k ie half is kiwis not going to Aus, and staying in NZ.
Currency: Growth + Stability + higher OCR = high $NZD, and don't expect to see it drop any time soon (barring financial shocks)
What could go wrong:
- Housing- up 69% in last 4 years, well above the trend line
- High Household debt- Rental return in Auckland is 3%. Govt debt is 30% of GDP, which is ok. H/H debt is 160% of GDP, which is not ok.
- NZ Election - Nats + NZF to rule !!!!???
- Inflation rising but OCR going nowhere for now.
-Long term interest rates rising
- Aus Govt debt has doubled in the last 4 years - slowing the ASX.
Where to from here for Craig's investment funds:
NZ - taking profits
Aus - cautious
US - Positive
UK - cautious
Europe - neutral

Question Time: Mark's reply to a question re NZX performance IMO let NZX off very lightly. However FBU got a caning with more or less a repeat of his analysis and thoughts expressed in his recent article ( in NBR I think).

Asked to pick 5 good NZ stocks:
EBO, MFT, FPH, AIA, RYM (again, no surprises!!!)

After meeting discussion: On the spec side Craigs invest in Gentrack. Interested in PPH but not investing at this stage. Interested in Oceania but not investing due to small size and illiquidity relative to RYM.

Mark is a very good presenter. I found him concise, informative and interesting.