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  1. #16
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    Not many of us are old enough to remember Jim Slater, Aaron, but for what it's worth, here's a present day take on his 10 "mature bull market" signals. Apply with care - different times, different rules, perhaps?

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...7f811-82636925

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Not many of us are old enough to remember Jim Slater, Aaron, but for what it's worth, here's a present day take on his 10 "mature bull market" signals. Apply with care - different times, different rules, perhaps?

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...7f811-82636925
    Quote from article "So of the ten signals here Iíd say only three - valuations, liquidity and interest rates - are really flashing red. Iím personally nervous and have a higher cash weighting in my portfolio than for many years. Perhaps thatís the most positive sign anyone could ask for."
    My change of view is that interest rates aren't really going up far. I think one or two percent rise in Japanese govt bonds and the entire govt budget is required to service debt. Every crisis since the 1990,s has been met with a lowering of interest rates. Ken Rogoff suggests the need to do away with paper currency so central banks can take interest rates negative. I am unsure about the US and China in regard to govt and private debt but from what I read it has all been rising considerably making it impossible to raise interest rates without crashing everything. If interest rates go negative asset prices no longer matter only your ability to access credit.

    Valuations seem high on a risk/yield basis but as Warren Buffett points out share values aren't too bad compared to bond yields. This won't change if we are stuck in a low interest rate environment. Only deflation will make bonds a better bet and that won't be allowed by central bankers.

    Liquidity I don't really understand. I assume this is cash sloshing around financial markets. Central banks again will guarantee liquidity. The Japanese Central bank already has bought a large chunk of the Japanese stock market. I don't suppose there is a plan to ever sell again.

    Everyone also needs to be euphoric as well which is definitely not the case. I am concerned a few billionaries are joining the nay sayers but asset prices remain propped up indefinitely by central banks.

    I'll give it another couple of months before partially throwing in the towel.

    Read the newspaper according to National the world will end if Labour get in power. Bill should know how fear works to encourage belief and support. He won't be burning in hell for all eternity when he dies.

  3. #18
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    Maybe I will wait a bit longer before buying.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ash-dead-ahead

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Maybe I will wait a bit longer before buying.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ash-dead-ahead
    There's a quote on that page linked - On a long enough timeframe the survival rate for everybody drops to zero

    Go on Aaron - may as well havea go now before its too late
    A valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper analysis of long-term discounted cash flows. Using them is just being lazy.

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