AIR - Air NZ.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

March operating stats still paint a pretty miserable picture

Domestic passenger numbers picking up but still way less than year ago

Hope they doing plenty of price gouging and making a few extra bob than they might have

Remember Auckland was in L3/L2 lockdown during 12 days of March, and rest of country was in L2 for first week. Australian travel bubble didn't open until a couple of weeks ago, so we won't get a good idea about how travel Bubble has benefitted until May figures are released.

[winner69]

interesting bit in that article - AIR current enterprise value was just 4 per cent below what it was on December 31, 2019, despite the current loss-making outlook and significant uncertainty over the recovery profile and size of the aviation market in future.

[peat]

interesting bit in that article - AIR current enterprise value was just 4 per cent below what it was on December 31, 2019, despite the current loss-making outlook and significant uncertainty over the recovery profile and size of the aviation market in future.

its very weird....




disc: short

[Blue Skies]

interesting bit in that article - AIR current enterprise value was just 4 per cent below what it was on December 31, 2019, despite the current loss-making outlook and significant uncertainty over the recovery profile and size of the aviation market in future.

Love to know how those 2 analysts worked that out!
December 2019 the future for air travel was booming, a year later AIR had half its planes mothballed & thousands of staff made redundant.
According to McKinsey report, worldwide airline revenues in 2020 were only 40% of what they were in 2019.

Will be interesting to see if Tokyo Olympics go ahead now, an indicator of how many hurdles the airline industry still faces.


https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...post-covid-19#

[winner69]

Love to know how those 2 analysts worked that out!
December 2019 the future for air travel was booming, a year later AIR had half its planes mothballed & thousands of staff made redundant.
According to McKinsey report, worldwide airline revenues in 2020 were only 40% of what they were in 2019.

Will be interesting to see if Tokyo Olympics go ahead now, an indicator of how many hurdles the airline industry still faces.


https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...post-covid-19#

Market cap down $1.3 billion ...net debt up up $1.1 billion (in round numbers) = enterprise value down 4%

[Sideshow Bob]

Market cap down $1.3 billion ...net debt up up $1.1 billion (in round numbers) = enterprise value down 4%

And then deducting the cash for the EV.

But net debt up $1.1 Billion....mind blown!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

And then deducting the cash for the EV.

But net debt up $1.1 Billion....mind blown!!

You deduct net cash (cash less debt) from Market Cap to get to EV value. So if net cash is actually negative (because debt is higher than cash) then the EV value will be higher than Market Cap.

[winner69]

You deduct net cash (cash less debt) from Market Cap to get to EV value. So if net cash is actually negative (because debt is higher than cash) then the EV value will be higher than Market Cap.

Net Debt figure of 2.4 billion Dec 19 reported by AIR in their leverage calculations - reported 3.1 billion Dec 20 but I reckon it’s more like 3.5 billion now

I assume when AIR talk Net Debt they mean Debt less Cash

[Blue Skies]

Numbers (rounded) I was using were -

Dec 19 - Market Cap 3.2 billion + Net Debt 2.4 billion = EV 5.6 billion

Now Market Cap 1.9 billion + Net Debt est 3.5 billion = EV 5.4 billion. SO not that much less than it was at Dec 19.

Net Debt figure of 2.4 billion Dec 19 reported by AIR in their leverage calculations - reported 3.1 billion Dec 20 but I have guessed how much it's gone up since

I assume when AIR talk Net Debt they mean Debt less Cash

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Since it's EV is now only 4% less compared to Dec 2019 when SP was mostly above 288 & hit 298 on 29/12/19, surely the SP is way undervalued now at 170.
But that can't be, how does that work?

[winner69]

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Since it's EV is now only 4% less compared to Dec 2019 when SP was mostly above 288 & hit 298 on 29/12/19, surely the SP is way undervalued now at 170.
But that can't be, how does that work?

As you know what it should be is really dependent on what returns can be made on that capital

At the moment 5.4 billion capital needed to generate a big loss .....’but that can’t be, how does that work’ ...quoting you