AIR - Air NZ.

[mikelee]

with the china vaccine looking like its a dud and third world countries all but knocked out and India in a dire state this thing is looking like it going to last another year at least as everyone will say "Of course we all know this"

of course you know because you are all whatching the 3rd re run of Grysons's Art Club on art's channel, arnt you? Im assuming there will be a 4th re run later this year.

anyway how far does this cap raise last? what the PL burn rate per month?

where did you read about the China vaccine? I haven't come across anything about its efficacy. would be disastrous if that's the case since, as of last week, China has already administrated 1 billion doses, domestically

[Beagle]

well one feels angst to say that the much loved national carrier should be a short.

I see there's an attempt to crowd fund saving the last AIR 747-400 from the scrap yard, (need to raise $2.5m)...the mind boggles as to how much of that goes to in administration to the person running the campaign. If people are interested in investing in AIR for philanthropic / nostalgia reasons maybe that's a better investment ?

[BlackPeter]

I can't believe this is holding at $1.59. I'm not short because, well, who would short anything in this crazy world. But you'd have to be on crack to think Air NZ makes sense as an investment at $1.59. I can model highly optimistic scenarios that have almost no chance of happening and I still can't get to $1.59 if I'm, you know, considering it as an actual business thinking about things like cashflows and EPS (I know, who does that??).

Strange times.

You are absolutely correct - fundamentals don't seem to support this market price.

On the other hand - what would be the fundamentals for e.g. various cryptocurrencies who provide neither assets nor earnings? People still pay real money for them. What happened to the fundamentals for the various Gamestop surges earlier this year?

Market frequently chooses to price securities without consideration of their earning potential.

Market consists out of unpredictable and irrational people with habits which used to be useful over the last million years.

- if this branch used to support my climb for many years, it probably is still fine. If this share was good two years ago, than it still must be good?
- if the herd stays, the environment must be safe, otherwise they would run, wouldn't they?
- greed and fear are important drivers. Share used to be more worth, so it probably still is (greed)? Currently it is quiet ... means perception is no need to run (no fear).

Many invest (too much of) their money in lotto tickets or in casinos, knowing that statistically they will lose. They still keep throwing more money into the same pit. Why would we expect them to behave different in the share market?

With tradeable securities like shares there is at least the option for holders to get out before the hype does ...

[unhuman]

I don't understand how it has held up for so long.

Who is holding a flatlining AIR for the last 12 months with huge potential downsides while watching the rest of the market go gangbusters?

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...cluster-in-nsw

Covid-19 NZ: Air NZ cancels 28 flights to Australia following cluster in NSW

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hard to see them making a taxable profit for next 5 years, maybe longer as the new 787s come online with that nice juicy depreciation lol. Long haul as a business is effectively gone as we knew it. Auditors are loath to allow tax losses on balance sheet unless there is a clear path to profitability.

I take nothing from the domestic travel uptick. You have everyone locked up here so not much else to do. All that money that used to be spent in NY, Aspen and London now here. Remember when NZ Stats used to report on offshore spending by travellers. Now that would have been great indicator early last year but I plain forgot about it(along with every other analyst/forecaster/economist.

I’m not a holder, but saying “Long haul as a business is effectively gone” seems incredibly shortsighted. In 24 months Covid will be a distant memory and travel will be back to normal.

[Vee Vee]

In 24 months the cashed up big boys will come out swinging. This sector internationally will be very tough after this reset. Not all will survive IMO.

AIR will struggle to make money on international, only surviving by dodging competition.

[biker]

Meant to include quote. See below

[biker]

Double up as above

[biker]

I see there's an attempt to crowd fund saving the last AIR 747-400 from the scrap yard, (need to raise $2.5m)...the mind boggles as to how much of that goes to in administration to the person running the campaign. If people are interested in investing in AIR for philanthropic / nostalgia reasons maybe that's a better investment ?

That’s a very nasty slur Beagle. Shame on you. Do you know who’s running the campaign? Do you have some background knowledge of their actions or intentions?
If not then I suggest you keep you very unpleasant, toxic comments off this forum.