AIR - Air NZ.

[BlackPeter]

Looking at the share prices of the cruise lines, hoteliers and overseas airlines I think that's exactly what's happening.

Doubt Mrs B and I will be engaging in international travel anytime in the foreseeable future. We had a nice suite booked for a cruise to Fiji last September...doubt that will be rebooked anytime soon.

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

[winner69]

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

Tou get that other virus -- norovirus

[BlackPeter]

I will be booking an international trip as soon as I can as will many of my family/friends. I think international travel will bounce back ALOT faster than the 10 years put forward by Foran. And I would bet on it by buying AIR shares if I didn’t think they were already priced for a quick bounce back (and then some..).

Not so sure .... while I think that some touristic activities will recover faster (see post above) - airlines (and particular Air New Zealand) will take a bit longer to recover (and the new normal might anyway be slimmer than the old one). Remember - less need to go on business trips for meetings and conferences - everybody now knows how to operate zoom . As well - our government intends to drastically reduce immigration and make it much more uncertain for applicants - this will reduce flights (less immigrants equals as well less visitors) as well as mass tourism to NZ.

I do see a row of meagre years coming up for our national carrier, but while I am sure the taxpayer (hey, that's us) will bail them out financially, but not the shareholders.

[Jaa]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.

We maintain our NZD 2.00 fair value estimate for shares in no-moat Air New Zealand following the release of interim fiscal 2021 results.

...

Despite near-term earnings pressure, we expect Air New Zealand will be able to weather the storm, particularly following the NZD 900 million debt funding agreement with the New Zealand government, Air New Zealand's majority shareholder. The airline has drawn on the NZD 900 million facility, but we doubt it will use the entire balance, as we currently forecast an equity raise of NZD 600 million before the end of fiscal 2021.

...

But we do forecast dividends resuming in fiscal 2023.

Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

[Poet]

Lot of negativity on this thread as usual but I agree with James1908, we will see a fast rebound in travel.

People have gone stir crazy overseas, have saved money and can't wait to travel. There is also a lot of repressed demand (families and friends not able to see each other) and flight credits to use. The Pivot podcast which I highly recommend is predicting the economy will go crazy and be the roaring 20s again. YOLO will be in fashion and NZ is a YOLO destination. The results from Israel and US nursing homes couldn't be any better for the RNA vaccines so its a plausible scenario in my opinion come later in the year.

I know its Morningstar, but their updated outlook and $2 estimate of fair value raised an eyebrow.



Disagree that Air NZ has no moat though, as I keep saying Air NZ have very strong and profitable moat around their domestic business.

I agree there will be a short term sugar surge once borders open

But don't overlook the fact that the new baseline international passenger volumes (ie post covid) might be something like 20% lower than pre-covid due to the likelihood that around that percentage of the population may not be vaccinated (by choice) and may as a consequence, be prohibited from international travel

[Jaa]

I agree there will be a short term sugar surge once borders open

But don't overlook the fact that the new baseline international passenger volumes (ie post covid) might be something like 20% lower than pre-covid due to the likelihood that around that percentage of the population may not be vaccinated (by choice) and may as a consequence, be prohibited from international travel

There's no way to tell if someone has been vaccinated, any certificates or whatever can easily be faked. Heck people in China are already faking actual COVID vaccines. Other countries like Indonesia are vaccinating with unproven/less effective vaccines. Then there are the variants both current and future.

Travel restrictions will lift slowly country by country when cases credibly reach 0 or near 0. Air NZ only really needs this to happen in Australia and the Pacific to move back to profitability. Otherwise when NZ has completed its own vaccination program which is less than a year away.

[Waltzing]

No doubt demand will be high if health passports are in use but travel to some destinations will be much lower for a while.. some saying 2022 to 2033 until vaccines are world wide although roll out in us is ramping up fast..

AIR is definitely a trade after cap raise.

" back to profitability"

with the fleet size purchased unless there has cancellations in forward purchases orders NPAT wont look good just based on NZ AUS PAS...

what is the fleet size parked and costs

[Beagle]

Good question. Give it another 12 months or so and assume everybody on board has to be vaccinated (condition for boarding) - what would be the issue with going on a nice cruise?

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?

[Waltzing]

im sure tis govt will help pacific with vaccines... new focus on local foreign policy and of course NZ will lead the pacific in peace talks with any big bullies...new sharing caring approach...

[nztx]

WHO suggesting it'll be 2023 before most of the world has access to vaccines. Do you think all the poor Indians in Fiji will have been vaccinated when we do our shore excursions there next year ?

China probably has the good General tucked under their wing for as much as Fiji can consume ..