AIR - Air NZ.

[blackcap]

I now see Emirates offering NZ to Singapore for $390 RETURN..


Disc. Not a holder.

Where did you find that? I can only get $1200 return. My partner is looking at visiting friends there and would welcome a heads up

But if Emirates are 1/3 full and looking to discount... cannot help AIR much.
Was impressed with AIR when I did fly them last on my Europe return. So much better than KLM on the Schiphol legs, better service, better plane, just more pleasant all round experience. Wonder what the cost is of having a newer fleet and if an older fleet (like the KLM one) actually saves the airline money or not?

[Snow Leopard]

...I now see Emirates offering NZ to Singapore for $390 RETURN...

What dates and how do you book them? I would be seriously interested.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[janner]

Unable to open my Slingshot account

Captcha .. Never can get that to work..

It was on WEBJET ..

Will confirm when Slingshot lets me back in..

[Snow Leopard]

Unable to open my Slingshot account

Captcha .. Never can get that to work..

It was on WEBJET ..

Will confirm when Slingshot lets me back in..

Well the cheapest I can find on Webjet is for Mid June at $398 each way via Shanghai with China Eastern, with a 9h layover (05:55 - 14:45) out and a 19h (04:55 - 00:20) layover coming back.

But 19h would be OK, they will give you a free transit visa.

You could have an early breakkie at the airport, then ride the Maglev (starts at 7am, if you can wait till 9am you can have a 430km/h ride as opposed to the slow 300km/h normal ride) and then the Metro into the city.
Walk the Bund, go up one of their tall towers, museums, lots of possibilities.
I can also recommend a few restaurants for you.

You will have to take a taxi back to the airport for your 00:20 departure and then you can have a nice sleep on the flight to AKL.

Webjet says AIR is $2,437 out, $3,330 back, but AIR website says $859 & $799 so maybe Webjet not totally reliable?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disclaimer ad nauseam : Don't hold AIR.

[janner]

Well the cheapest I can find on Webjet is for Mid June at $398 each way via Shanghai with China Eastern, with a 9h layover (05:55 - 14:45) out and a 19h (04:55 - 00:20) layover coming back.

But 19h would be OK, they will give you a free transit visa.

You could have an early breakkie at the airport, then ride the Maglev (starts at 7am, if you can wait till 9am you can have a 430km/h ride as opposed to the slow 300km/h normal ride) and then the Metro into the city.
Walk the Bund, go up one of their tall towers, museums, lots of possibilities.
I can also recommend a few restaurants for you.

You will have to take a taxi back to the airport for your 00:20 departure and then you can have a nice sleep on the flight to AKL.

Webjet says AIR is $2,437 out, $3,330 back, but AIR website says $859 & $799 so maybe Webjet not totally reliable?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disclaimer ad nauseam : Don't hold AIR.

This is all I get from Slingshot

Oops! We're currently experiencing technical difficulties, please try again later.
Homepage

So unable to confirm..
Will do so ASAP..

Not think about travelling . Will be here for quite a few months..

[Raz]

Insights 1 and 2 says it for me and with professional accountants throwing up all over the forum it's not wonder I have been uncomfortable holding AIR.

I have been in balls deep (technical term) for a period of 18 months and the only way I have managed a satisfactory return is by trading plus dividends.

I have a complete lack of confidence in any sort of predictability with AIR.
That does not suit this investor.

So for those reasons I'm out and have been for a while.

Totally agree..and your not alone...trading has been the only way for an effective return over the past twelve months and now it requires even more effort and monitoring in the current environment to hope to achieve that return, so for me, who values my time, it doesn't add up.

Had 350,000 share a couple of months ago which I sold out in the 2.95-3.02 range and now sitting with only 20,000 which i have recently purchased. I think point 1 is important - it reminds me we have more potential shaking out of the Inst. who bought really low... so now wondering if we have bottomed out.

[Beagle]

Insights 1 and 2 says it for me and with professional accountants throwing up all over the forum it's not wonder I have been uncomfortable holding AIR.

I have been in balls deep (technical term) for a period of 18 months and the only way I have managed a satisfactory return is by trading plus dividends.

I have a complete lack of confidence in any sort of predictability with AIR.
That does not suit this investor.

So for those reasons I'm out and have been for a while.

Its only natural that when the SP declines people will be looking for someone to blame, I guess that's the flip side, the ugly side of human nature.

Many are happy when I'm expending heaps of unpaid hours trying to improve the companies restricted persons insider trading policies for everyone's benifet but if I think they're good buying in the mid - late $2 range, (goes without saying they were better buying in late 2014 at $2 when I am very enthusiastic and bought up large), and the price comes back from there its my fault...go figure...

I get PM's and e.mails from time to time, (as I am sure many other regular contributors do), thanking me for my insights and posts when SP's of companies go up but its not unexpected that none arrive when the SP goes down.

If anyone's interested I remain confident AIR can earn an average across the cycle of 30 cps with their expanded modern fleet and when the dust settles and AIR extricate themselves from VAH I remain of the view that SP will more accurately reflect the underlying value of the business. I remain of the view that the consensus analyst valuation at $2.82 is conservative.

(Not to be considered professional advice DYOR "mate").

[skid]

Its only natural that when the SP declines people will be looking for someone to blame, I guess that's the flip side, the ugly side of human nature.

Many are happy when I'm expending heaps of unpaid hours trying to improve the companies restricted persons insider trading policies for everyone's benifet but if I think they're good buying in the mid - late $2 range, (goes without saying they were better buying in late 2014 at $2 when I am very enthusiastic and bought up large), and the price comes back from there its my fault...go figure...

I get PM's and e.mails from time to time, (as I am sure many other regular contributors do), thanking me for my insights and posts when SP's of companies go up but its not unexpected that none arrive when the SP goes down.

If anyone's interested I remain confident AIR can earn an average across the cycle of 30 cps with their expanded modern fleet and when the dust settles and AIR extricate themselves from VAH I remain of the view that SP will more accurately reflect the underlying value of the business. I remain of the view that the consensus analyst valuation at $2.82 is conservative.

(Not to be considered professional advice DYOR "mate").

Your the king Roger in terms of the numbers(you've obviously got that covered) and the time is appreciated--but lets not forget the other factors at work here.
It was pretty plain in your letter that foreign institutions have had an affect on things and airlines in the US have also had good numbers but have dropped (which may have influenced these institutions.
Many believe oil will stay at reasonable levels and US airlines will turn back upward--(well ,the debate I saw 1 for -1 against--but the one for a turn for the better,had the last word if that means anything.)
This is something pretty influential that most of us have missed,so rather than place blame,perhaps its just a case that your hard work gave us an excellent picture of part of the equation---FA is a complicated beast.
I have said before that although nothing is certain ,the longer we go along this path ,the greater the odds must be of a bottom. Even Hoop with his fibs was tempted.
With the summer travel season coming up in the States lets hope US airlines improve and we get some of the benefit.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your vote of confidence Skid but I can't accept the king title, just have a love of aviation, like crunching numbers and like doing my best to understand it and like trying to make a difference for the benefit of others. When you put yourself out there I suppose its only natural that some people will take pot shots and you'll make both friends and enemies. Vince once told me, not everyone is going to like you, its a public forum, that's just the reality of how it is and of course he's absolutely right. That said there shouldn't need to be snide thinly disguised contemptuous remarks made on a public forum or overt non disguised ones for that matter either.

I keep an eye on the fundamentals of the U.S. Carriers and there's plenty of pressure on them from competition and yet the fundamental's AIR trade on compared to say Delta or American airlines makes AIR look like a screaming bargain, also by comparison to QAN. Everyone is down in the mouth with sentiment at the moment, annoyed with the company having to support VAH and then the back-flip of wanting to sell and the management selling hasn't helped either. Then there's a raft of new competition coming and everyone seems to be focused on that rather that the actual operating stat's themselves and seems to forget any positive influences, like AIR expanding into new routes. "Its always darkest before the dawn" that old cliché probably says it best.

[Nasi Goreng]

While there were risks when the share price was around $3, you could see a case for $3 being fair value. So when we look at the price today being sub $2.30, you have to ask if the recent news is really worth the $800M which has been wiped off the market cap in the space of 5 weeks.

It looks like fear of competitive environment is driving down expectations of prices and profitability. Its AIR's job to fight this battle with competitors but its not uncommon for market and media to make this sound like its bigger than what it is.

While Competition is something most people get scared of, a worse situation is a decrease in demand or over supply. Something that isn't even on the horizon here with tourist numbers up 7% year on year and no slow down on the horizon. The other thing to consider is that while it may get more competitive in the international flights arena, Air NZ have a moat around their business in NZ with the infrastructure to cater for all those travelers. It might be easy to introduce a new route from Asia to NZ but its been proven over and over again its hard to compete with Air NZ domestically.

We are also in a completely different market to what we have had in the last few decades. Bank deposits don't quite get the return they once did so at these levels with the potential for imputed dividends in excess of 10% and a business that is not likely to stop performing any time soon, its looking like a good entry opportunity here.

Technically, it does look a bit ugly right now. There was a death cross a few days ago which is normally a sell signal but I think in this case, the price has fallen so fast that it took some time for the averages to catch up with the steep price decline. If you look at downside risk, I don't see a big risk of this falling below $2 and we may be forming a base right now but there is opportunity for it to find a footing and start to climb back to $2.60-2.80.

As in all cases, DYOR and don't rely on what I or anyone else here is saying.