My guess is that AirNZ will allocate Capital Raise to be set at ~1.60. SP will likely be in the 1.75 to 1.85 range by then. I wish we had loaded up the portfolio more back when SP dipped and was only $1 !
NTA as at 31 December was 97 cents per share and I would think its materially lower by the time they try and raise capital, perhaps about 80 cents I think they will try and raise capital at somewhere very close to NTA, maybe cheeky enough to try at $1 and play the fiddle that they're in recovery mode and will soon be thriving.
I see no viability to their business model for several years so as mentioned before as I don;t mix investment activities with philanthropic activities I have no interest in participating.
I only post to bring some realism to this thread. Disc: I have been in and out as an investor in AIR for more than 30 years. There are times to be an investor in AIR and there are times to stay out. In my opinion one is best to avoid any investment in AIR for the foreseeable future.
Last edited by Beagle; 15-06-2021 at 10:32 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Beagle, absolutely agree. I have been in and out of this for circa 30 years. At one point a fund I was investment manager for was one of the larger insti holders. IMO AIR's go forward business model is unknown. They will need a freight component but how is an issue.The govt can't keep propping up it up when the a/c are not freight aircraft but mixed revenue. There is no chance of conversion or new buys or old. So dilemma because if NZ loses or seriously degrades that freight capability then NZ exporters are in Big Trouble in Little China territory. Long haul, imo, is effectively gone to any meaningful level. Short haul has lesser but no means insignificant challenges but hard to see it anywhere near 2019 levels for at least another 5 years.
The directors(and auditors) have to sign the accounts of soon as a going concern I presume. Problem is there is no business clarity at all. It is losing money even with subsidies. At some point the WTO may be pressured over the subsidies because long term they are illegal.I wonder how far AIR/GONZ can push it.
At $1.00 there will be a big shortfall and Govt underwrite will be called. At 50 was where I pitched it 12 months ago but maybe 75 is right given the Labour Govt approach to life. They would like to buy all of it actually but with the lack of money bailing out AIR or paying nurses is a no brainer.
Agree Beagle. AIR sure don't paint a picture of how much IP is walking out the door to jobs paying market rate. Backfilling roles using consultants at 2x or 3x rate of incumbent staff rather than paying said staff is not a good way to retain talent
Last edited by causecelebre; 15-06-2021 at 02:20 PM.
They will need a freight component but how is an issue.The govt can't keep propping up it up when the a/c are not freight aircraft but mixed revenue. There is no chance of conversion or new buys or old.
An old coal burning Boeing 757 freighter with a Greek tail registration crossed the Tasman last night.
I am puzzled why Cullen Airlines don't convert some of their 777's sitting out in the paddock into freighters.
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Originally Posted by Maxtrade
: Probably results in share prices to move higher - BIG is BEAUTIFUL ...
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