AIR - Air NZ.

[bonmaklad]

Ok it dropped 3% when I posted.... I'll stay quiet

[thestg]

Closed on the 100 day EMA

[couta1]

It's all guru analyst at Craigs fault - lowering their target and taking a pessimistic view on this years earnings

Seemsworried about the $10/barrel increase in fuel costs



http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...s-analystshtml

Notice he also said, In the medium term, it's prospects remain solid and it's well positioned for the longer term due to its quality product, market position and demand growth. Things some of us are already well aware of, he did forget to mention reducing Capex though but we'll let him away with that aye.

[simjp81]

AIR always seems to do this to me. Buy in, SP falls heavy, sell and it climbs. Am I cursed.....

[RupertBear]

AIR always seems to do this to me. Buy in, SP falls heavy, sell and it climbs. Am I cursed.....

LOL me too!

[Beagle]

Nothing disingenuous about the article it was pulled straight from the nzx release. Those here claim competition was built into the share price could very well be mistaken when the company outlook is released in February. If load factors continue to fall and they fly further for less I suspect the financial pain has only just started for air NZ.

You are entitled to your opinion boysy just like you were when you were so adamant that HLG was going to be a train wreck but is now up over 30% including the dividend and all that since you so adamantly made your very negative point of view clear on numerous occasions.
I am very comfortable with my viewpoint that the press article was at the very least very poorly articulated, (I don't feel the need to spend endless ages unpacking exactly why on here) and in such a manner as to give a disingenuous viewpoint that revenue had fallen off a cliff.
You need to interpret data my friend...you simply cannot take it at face value and just like your pet store's such as H&M haven't destroyed HLG, Air Asia X, Jetheap and the other cheap and nasty airlines aren't going to destroy AIR. I will enjoy my AIR dividends just as much as my HLG ones

I disagree with Craigs assessment. Yields are already firming in response to slightly higher fuel prices since Sept and yield and fuel price is inextricably linked.

[Xerof]

sold some in the closing auctions last week at 2.24 and 2.27, bought 'em back in the closing auction today at 2.12

do what you think's right

[winner69]

Updated Paper Tiger's numbers seeing his lips are sealed

Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:

Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%
Nov: 99.30%
Dec: 98.48%

Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%
Nov: 96.21%
Dec: 93.24%


He said the maths were easy- easy enough for me I hope. He might break his seal of silence if I have them wrong.

As PT has said in the past some good news and some not so good news

Short haul better than November - that's good

If my maths are further correct passenger revenues will be down $8m or 3.8% on prior year

Not as much as the Herald were suggesting

[Poet]

Well, I'm hearing that the Trumposity is about to sign a rescindment of the ESTA regulations, so henceforth anyone wanting to visit the USA will have to attend a mano a mano interview at an American embassy, I'm thinking that this isn't going to be great for AIR. Thoughts?

[Beagle]

From the table accompanying the Dec release - all figures for the group, i.e. total sales and are as follows where X = last year to date sales.

RPK's are up 5.5% so X x 1.055 = 1.055. "Removing the impact of foreign exchange group wide yields YTD have decreased 7.9%"
Therefore 1.055 X at 7.9% lower average yield gives 1.055 x .921 = X = 0.971655 a 2.83% passenger sales decline in $Kiwi.

Note you do not need to account for lower loads as this is already factored into RPK's, i.e. RPK's are not revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK's).

Therefore passenger sales have fallen 2.83% in currency adjusted dollar terms for the year to date, (a vastly different figure than what has been inaccurately reported today). That still leaves freight, engineering and other sales and the profit they made on the disposal of their stake in VAL this half as compared to the carrying value as at 30 June 2016.

Of course they flew further but were using more efficient planes and fuel was cheaper than last year.

Customer revenue in the six months to 31/12/2015 was $2,308m, so I'm expecting circa $65m reduction in gross sales.

I think people are losing sight of the fact that profit of $801m before tax for the Fy16 year was heavily skewed to the fist half with $457m in 1H FY16 and only $344m in 2H FY16.
Of course this years yields will look worse, you're comparing two starkly different sets of circumstances, 1H FY16 when AIR had very little competition to 1H FY17 when competition is the diametric opposite.

That said even if all those sales came straight off the bottom line they made $457 before tax in the first half last year so $457 - $65m = $392m this half.

Of course I'm not suggesting that will be the number but the purpose of this post is to highlight the heralds folly and the folly generally of reading too much into the yield decline.

I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.