AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

........
I have seldom found a reason to rate Forbar's analysts and that after being with them for many many years, no longer have an association with Forbar which speaks for itself in terms of what I think of their analysts research.

Forbar are gurus
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11772348

[Leftfield]

Just my two cents, after flying return from London to Auckland on Malaysia Airlines, for almost half what AirNZ was charging for not quite an equivalent service (my domestic connection wasn't on the same ticket in NZ, and obviously I don't get Koru access/airpoints), unless you can justify the significant additional cost to fly AirNZ then you need to understand the considerable long haul competition for AirNZ and what that represents. If I want to fly London/Auckland I now have the option of Malaysia, Qatar, Emirates, China Southern, China Eastern, Philippines, Thai, Air China, with the exception of Philippines, these are all one stop hub options with considerably better baggage allowances and better connections. The second question I have is, what can AirNZ focus on for the value add, they used to milk domestic routes and as unreliable as Jetstar is, they are often significantly cheaper, is the money just in the pacific islands? do they expect people to just pony up the additional for the "Air NZ experience"? Im really struggling to understand their business now...

I agree Subway. I have just returned from a jaunt through Asia and noted AIR was not price competitive and offered only comparable service with the least leg room of all the flights. IMHO AIR is just one of a very crowded market.

[couta1]

I agree Subway. I have just returned from a jaunt through Asia and noted AIR was not price competitive and offered only comparable service with the least leg room of all the flights. IMHO AIR is just one of a very crowded market.

Not too crowded on the domestic front aye. I only fly other airlines when Air don't offer a route or code share partner, I like to support good NZ companies, I'm not into making foreign companies richer at the expense of our own companies,if I have a choice about it.

[winner69]

Not too crowded on the domestic front aye. I only fly other airlines when Air don't offer a route or code share partner, I like to support good NZ companies, I'm not into making foreign companies richer at the expense of our own companies,if I have a choice about it.

They might be smallish but those ATR things were 100% full flying to CHCH and back for Springsteen

Betcha most paid more than $59 bucks ours cost as well.

Couts- The Boss twice as good as GnR

[Balance]

Not too crowded on the domestic front aye. I only fly other airlines when Air don't offer a route or code share partner, I like to support good NZ companies, I'm not into making foreign companies richer at the expense of our own companies,if I have a choice about it.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11748081

Air NZ is obviously doing something right to win awards after awards?

For some of us, paying extra to have direct flights to destinations without the hassles of stopovers (and the almost inevitable delays and extra hours of traveling) is not a luxury but a necessity, especially for the older generations who can afford to pay more as well.

[Jantar]

10 cps interim is exactly as predicted, and updated guidance for full year is narrowed down to $475M - $525M, and right in the middle of the previous guidance. The 2nd best result in the company's history is pretty good by my reckoning.

[winner69]

After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)

Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million

CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m

Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m

Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.

Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.

Roger me old mate - I was a lot closer with my around $300m than your woefully pessimistic $240m. Actual $327m (normalised)

Share price to $2.50 soon for sure now

[couta1]

10 cps interim is exactly as predicted, and updated guidance for full year is narrowed down to $475M - $525M, and right in the middle of the previous guidance. The 2nd best result in the company's history is pretty good by my reckoning.

Nothing wrong with this result contrary to the bleeting in the Herald last night, happy holding. PS-Expecting stronger 2nd half but it's a secret so don't tell anyone.

[Balance]

Forbar are gurus
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11772348

Am taking the bait, W69.

Forbar the firm whose analysts rated Feltex a 'hold' a week before it collapsed? And who shoved umpteen number of Feltex shares (and other unmentionables) into their discretionary clients' portfolios?

Forbar the firm which believes that it is okay to juice their toxic offerings (Credit Sails) with "Remember we catch more flies with honey than vinegar!"?

Forbar the firm that sold hundreds of millions of South Canterbury Finance (their No 1 corporate client) securities to their clients?

And now, DRUM ROLL .......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11566121

Forbar which came last in 2014 stock picks with the only (yes, only) negative return?

Maybe we are talking about different firms?

[Beagle]

Am taking the bait, W69.

Forbar the firm whose analysts rated Feltex a 'hold' a week before it collapsed? And who shoved umpteen number of Feltex shares (and other unmentionables) into their discretionary clients' portfolios?

Forbar the firm which believes that it is okay to juice their toxic offerings (Credit Sails) with "Remember we catch more flies with honey than vinegar!"?

Forbar the firm that sold hundreds of millions of South Canterbury Finance (their No 1 corporate client) securities to their clients?

And now, DRUM ROLL .......

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11566121

Forbar which came last in 2014 stock picks with the only (yes, only) negative return?

Maybe we are talking about different firms?

Very well said Balance. Their analyst Bowley got the interim result hopelessly wrong, honestly he was so far wide of the mark you wonder how much analysis he actually did ?
That they won the 2016 competition only goes to prove the old saying that every dog has its day not matter what the pedigree.
Anyway back to AIR, yes Winner the hound was conservative, and deliberately so, Kudos to you for picking ~ $300m.
Very happy indeed with the result but a little concerned with forward guidance in the circumstances taking into account $349m earnings before tax for 1H full year guidance at the mid point of $500m which is roughly what I have been expecting implies only ~ $150m for 2H FY17.

It will be interesting to hear their fuller explanation in the conference call for such a conservative second half forecast. Good that their capex all the way out to 2021 is now only $1.6 billion some of which will already have been paid by way of deposits. This underscores their ability to be a solid dividend payer for the foreseeable future. Happy with the dividend which was as expected.