AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

Very well said Balance. Their analyst Bowley got the interim result hopelessly wrong, honestly he was so far wide of the mark you wonder how much analysis he actually did ?
That they won the 2016 competition only goes to prove the old saying that every dog has its day not matter what the pedigree.
Anyway back to AIR, yes Winner the hound was conservative, and deliberately so, Kudos to you for picking ~ $300m.
Very happy indeed with the result but a little concerned with forward guidance in the circumstances taking into account $349m earnings before tax for 1H full year guidance at the mid point of $500m which is roughly what I have been expecting implies only ~ $150m for 2H FY17.

It will be interesting to hear their fuller explanation in the conference call for such a conservative second half forecast.

Agree - that full year guidance been tightened up so $500m it will be eh

But seems a bit light relative to $349m or $327m in H1

Maybe Forbar man just got his timing wrong and things are going as he outlined in his report. I note fuel assumption is $65/barrel - up $10 on previous guidance, didn't the Forbar mention this $10?

[couta1]

Very well said Balance. Their analyst Bowley got the interim result hopelessly wrong, honestly he was so far wide of the mark you wonder how much analysis he actually did ?
That they won the 2016 competition only goes to prove the old saying that every dog has its day not matter what the pedigree.
Anyway back to AIR, yes Winner the hound was conservative, and deliberately so, Kudos to you for picking ~ $300m.
Very happy indeed with the result but a little concerned with forward guidance in the circumstances taking into account $349m earnings before tax for 1H full year guidance at the mid point of $500m which is roughly what I have been expecting implies only ~ $150m for 2H FY17.

It will be interesting to hear their fuller explanation in the conference call for such a conservative second half forecast. Good that their capex all the way out to 2021 is now only $1.6 billion some of which will already have been paid by way of deposits. This underscores their ability to be a solid dividend payer for the foreseeable future. Happy with the dividend which was as expected.

They are being overly conservative on purpose I'd say and should overdeliver in H2 on this basis IMO, huge domestic demand about to kick in during H2.

[Raz]

Agree - that full year guidance been tightened up so $500m it will be eh

But seems a bit light relative to $349m or $327m in H1

Maybe Forbar man just got his timing wrong and things are going as he outlined in his report. I note fuel assumption is $65/barrel - up $10 on previous guidance, didn't the Forbar mention this $10?

Second half will hold up as they are not discounting to the same extent as per last year which is my best indicator forward bookings are holding up through to June. Yes for the super price conscience there are cheaper options especially Auckland - EU however in the past when it has cut into loads, AIR price matches on their site not via direct advertising, have not seen so much of that this year:-)

Im all good where we are :-)

[Beagle]

They are being overly conservative on purpose I'd say and should overdeliver in H2 on this basis IMO, huge domestic demand about to kick in during H2.

It looks that way to me mate but the conference call will make an interesting listen. Winner - The fuel thing doesn't explain the reduction in second half earnings as they've already alluded to higher revenue / improving yields compared to 1H Fy17. I am a little puzzled by their second half outlook and when reading through the text of the result was quite surprised their full year guidance wasn't upgraded based on the $349m result for the first half. What are management seeing in the second half compared to the first half operating environment ? Can't be yields, can't be load factors, isn't anywhere near fully explained by jet fuel increase, what is it ?

[babymonster]

nicely done to all airnz people...

[stoploss]

It looks that way to me mate but the conference call will make an interesting listen. Winner - The fuel thing doesn't explain the reduction in second half earnings as they've already alluded to higher revenue / improving yields compared to 1H Fy17. I am a little puzzled by their second half outlook and when reading through the text of the result was quite surprised their full year guidance wasn't upgraded based on the $349m result for the first half. What are management seeing in the second half compared to the first half operating environment ? Can't be yields, can't be load factors, isn't anywhere near fully explained by jet fuel increase, what is it ?

Roger when they outperform in the 2nd half , they can then pay all the extra out in a special divvy ........

[Beagle]

Roger when they outperform in the 2nd half , they can then pay all the extra out in a special divvy ........

[Beagle]

If you want to drill down into the nuts and bolts here's how

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/252605.pdf

Suggest you skim read this first
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253624.pdf

[babymonster]

Qantas seems to doing worse... no surprised..

[kyanar]

Worse how? They're up $0.15 since open.