AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Definately Overseas Insto's driving the SP Roger, however that's not always a good long term gauge of true value. I remember last year when the same sort of buying drove the Ryman SP to $9.86, and yet look where it is sitting now. Air is a great company to hold if you can buy the shares at a value price, I see that as under $2.50, buying at current prices or higher is risky and doesn't give one any breathing space so to speak. I'm not keen on allowing the market to wipe my plate clean these days, I'd rather take a safe snack and forsake a risky large meal.

[Beagle]

All the more reason to think they're overpriced at the moment then?

Most of the well run airline stocks have staged a nice recovery from lows experienced in late 2016. QAN is up more than AIR in percentage terms in the last six months for example. Delta, American Airlines and many others have also been doing very well. It seems to me many airline stocks hit a low point in 2016 on fears of a real slowdown in worldwide economic growth, geopolitical factors and oil rising off the back of admittedly a very low cyclical point. You could just as easily make the case that AIR was stupidly underpriced at $1.73, (which is something I quite correctly called unlike some of the serial bears on here). We are now at a forward PE of 9, I repeat, the ten year average PE is 11. I think those with a bearish view hoping to buy this stock a lot cheaper and tap into some juicy special dividends in the years ahead are probably going to be disappointed but like all things about predicting the future, time will tell !

[winner69]

Into the 290s ....... 3 bucks not far away

[sb9]

Into the 290s ....... 3 bucks not far away

Glad this thread is bit more normal and silent in the lead upto that $3 mark, unlike last time when there was too much exuberance and ramping up from punters...

[BlackPeter]

With all due respect BP you've been saying ostensibly the same thing since they were ~ $1.73 around 7-8 months ago and they've paid a 10 cent fully imputed dividend during that timeframe. $1.24 increase later ($2.87-$1.73 + 0.10 divvy) a whopping 74% in total shareholder return...you're singing the same tune.
The analysts have a very poor record of predicting future SP movements with this stock...far better off tuning into the conference calls after interim and final results and listening to Chris Luxon and reading what else they have to say, the most recent of which is here https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/257547.pdf

Selective memory? I did ride some way up with this share starting actually from 176 (just checked). Sold however out when the SP temporarily dipped during the uptrend and, yes - while the fundamentals still look ok if nothing changes, for my feeling are the risks at this stage higher than the potential future rewards.

Nothing to fight about - just a different perception of risk and a higher discount I tend to request for shares of any company which make their money with floating or flying people around.

I am not saying that the SP will dip from here - nobody can predict that. I am just saying that the odds are in my view at this stage less likely to reward holders than to punish them ... but hey, life is full of uncertainty, lets embrace it .

[Beagle]

Sorry BP, probably just poor memory...Its called getting older Agree no point ramping or arguing, retail investors only own 4% and overseas insto's that own the bulk of the free float wouldn't care less what's written on here and certainly wouldn't read it. All good.

[Marilyn Munroe]

... but hey, life is full of uncertainty, lets embrace it .

The uncertainty surrounding Cullen Airlines decision to unfreind their cobbers at Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division) is evaporating with every profit announcement.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017051...ss2wpp4rgt.pdf

Boop booop de do
Marilyn

[airedale]

Getting off topic for a moment: I get grumpy when I book with Air NZ then find that I am on a Virgin flight. It is definitely a down grade. Air NZ should get out of that arrangement.

[theace]

Hmmm ... normally when one books, you can see if it is a codeshare flight (on Virgin metal) ... option to choose another flight on preferred metal.

[BlackPeter]

Pitty that:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9286...ising-pressure

I remember them as one of the top airlines (though didn't use them admittedly for some time ... their routes didn't suit my needs).

But just wondering - if Cathay feels the pressure - is there anything in store for the industry as a whole?