AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

That sharp price spike on my/your screen, 285 close 295 launch today , typically followed by a negative period that may or may not recover. But then again if it is overseas investors driving the trend then "the sky may be the limit"... no pun intended. perhaps they think it should be more like our auuwwwssttraleeen bros

They just had a profit upgrade mate and the airline index is up overnight on cheaper oil prices. Today's share price improvement is quite a logical and perfectly understandable movement in my opinion. Tomorrow and the next day we'll see analysts come out with revised estimates for FY17 and FY18. I'm sorry but I think your logic of a SP fall tomorrow is predicated on nothing more than pure speculation.

[Xerof]

arc, I would call that a shooting star, but for that to be a valid formation, it needs to close today just below the opening price. Doesn't seem likely at the moment. (probably already seen the back-fill)

As roger says, this mornings rise is based on the earnings upgrade

[arc]

They just had a profit upgrade mate and the airline index is up overnight on cheaper oil prices. Today's share price improvement is quite a logical and perfectly understandable movement in my opinion. Tomorrow and the next day we'll see analysts come out with revised estimates for FY17 and FY18. I'm sorry but I think your logic of a SP fall tomorrow is predicated on nothing more than pure speculation.

Could well be...

[Meextr]

Cracked the 300

[stoploss]

Cracked the 300

Aussie fund managers back from lunch suitably lubricated ......

[Beagle]

Cracked the 300

I will make this comment and this is not a ramp, it bothers me not one way or the other whether people think that, only 4% of holdings is retail so nothing to be gained by ramping IMO.
I remain of the view that nobody can reliably tell you which point of the airline cycle we're currently at.
What the company has done this year is show their business model in the face of arguably one of the fiercest periods of competition is extremely robust.
Their brand is strong, their management team are focused and their business model is underpinned by compelling tourism growth, a strong drive for cost reduction and a modern very fuel efficient fleet.
Looking forward, all things being equal I see competitor pressure further easing as we head into 1H Fy18 as we lap the year when new entrants launched with red hot opening specials and new entrants last year look to ensure their new routes are profitable or reduce capacity or extricate themselves from the route.
My preliminary thinking is I see nothing in today's announcement, (with further growth in depth on routes established last year for which the expensive development launch costs have already been expended) and further growth leveraging off the existing fixed cost base leading to further CASK efficiencies) which would make me think that ~ $550 before tax or $400m after tax isn't achievable all things being equal in Fy18 and FY19 with possible upside from there. $400m after tax gives 35.6 cps, this year I think we're slightly higher than that.
The average PE across the cycle is 11. John Key coming on board will add further depth to an already highly talented intellectual pool and very useful international contacts.
People who think $3 is the ceiling could be in for a big surprise in the years ahead.

[sb9]

I will make this comment and this is not a ramp, it bothers me not one way or the other whether people think that, only 4% of holdings is retail so nothing to be gained by ramping IMO.
I remain of the view that nobody can reliably tell you which point of the airline cycle we're currently at.
What the company has done this year is show their business model in the face of arguably one of the fiercest periods of competition is extremely robust.
Their brand is strong, their management team are focused and their business model is underpinned by compelling tourism growth, a strong drive for cost reduction and a modern very fuel efficient fleet.
Looking forward, all things being equal I see competitor pressure further easing as we head into 1H Fy18 as we lap the year when new entrants launched with red hot opening specials and new entrants last year look to ensure their new routes are profitable or reduce capacity or extricate themselves from the route.
My preliminary thinking is I see nothing in today's announcement, (with further growth in depth on routes established last year for which the expensive development launch costs have already been expended) and further growth leveraging off the existing fixed cost base leading to further CASK efficiencies) which would make me think that ~ $550 before tax or $400m after tax isn't achievable all things being equal in Fy18 and FY19 with possible upside from there. $400m after tax gives 35.6 cps, this year I think we're slightly higher than that.
The average PE across the cycle is 11. John Key coming on board will add further depth to an already highly talented intellectual pool and very useful international contacts.
People who think $3 is the ceiling could be in for a big surprise in the years ahead.

Well said mate, that $3 might be a bargain price in a months time...

[sb9]

Finished at day's high point 3.02, well done

[winner69]

Finished at day's high point 3.02, well done

No surprises here

Wonder if $3.00 will now become strong support seeing it has broken through a mark that showed strong resistance

If as Roger says the big boys will mull over their models over night ....and start buying in earnest tomorrow and next week I reckon

Nothing to upset the apple cart until the full year announcement time - when is that

[sb9]

No surprises here

Wonder if $3.00 will now become strong support seeing it has broken through a mark that showed strong resistance

If as Roger says the big boys will mull over their models over night ....and start buying in earnest tomorrow and next week I reckon

Nothing to upset the apple cart until the full year announcement time - when is that

Not until last week of Aug, the FY results to be announced..