AIR - Air NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

And what happens when the euphoria disappears?

Simple, your stoploss takes you out. No need for emotions, or endless chatter, let the market do its thing.

[stoploss]

Yes we've all made them. The thing I find distasteful here is the bringing up of old posts, which are then used against you. Posts are made from the viewpoint of the moment and should be viewed in that light. As I already said in a post above, Air has been re rated since my $2.50 target, but the question is whether it's worth it's current price, not IMO. PS-The Motley dude reckoned it was overpriced at $3.26, when he last wrote an article on Air, too many variables outside of management control compared to other stocks he reckons.

Couta forgive me if you find it distasteful .
That was one post of maybe half a dozen from below $ 2.50 where you have said all the way up it is over valued ......( not just one moment )
Now you say it has been re rated , but at the same time still saying it is over priced .
Would have maybe been good if you said at some stage - have looked at the numbers I now value this at $ 3.00.
To reiterate Tourism booming .
Air NZ running a slick operation .
Other posters have pointed out the efficiency of the fleet and low cost of av gas and a good forward hedging policy .
Lions tour , Americas Cup, the relative safety of NZ , clean green Country to visit all very favorable to AIR.NZ
The added bonus of a good management team ( despite their penchant for regular sell downs - pity some of them gave them away )
Plus a board that will be strengthened by the EX PM in due course .
Lots to Love , so we agree to disagree , you are welcome to your opinion . However as a non shareholder your regular calls of over priced come across as nothing but bashing .
This has been in a solid uptrend from $ 2.20, my motivation is more to help others and telling them this is over valued from $2.50 could have cost someone a great trade .
Take a read of some old AAPL forums , plenty of people calling it overvalued at $ 50.00 as it went to $ 700.00 before the 7:1 split .
Cheers S/L

[Joshuatree]

Many thanks stop loss .Good reminder about the impacts we can have have on other people if they are naive or stupid or follow orders, advice ,opinions, directions, self appointed authority figures etc , and if we are stupid enough to act like qualified licensed advisors or get carried away at times. We can be made accountable for our past posts, absolutely; lets be careful out there and make it clear its just an opinion and nothings a certainty and follow no one. And if we all remember the first investing rule ,Don't Lose Money and the 3rd one, Don't Help Other People Lose Money. AIR ,I'm holding not folding atpit. Also holding in this sector on ASX ,PTB and AQZ

[hardt]

Would be good if the Air bulls put up a solid argument as to why the stock is worth a $1 more than a year ago, when they achieved their highest annual profit in the history of the company, with this year ranking second to that.

As a non holder here is my "OPINION" that matters more than anything else in this world - case can be made to buy AIR, case can be made to sell AIR.

Personally, I invest based on fundamentals more than market sentiment and momentum... the market's opinion is the only one that counts and I have to take a step back and think what made me miss the 50%+ upside that AIR has seen over the last 6 months - for me, I was stingy with a buy order in the 230s and wasn't bright enough to chase it on the way up after it had a good run ( I was thinking that a pullback absolutely must occur )

Most airliners have experienced significant support from the market over the past half year and I was looking elsewhere

Chart includes Qantas, China Southern, Southwest and the Crude index: BRNTB Crude Oil (Nymex)

Airliners.PNG

Despite Air NZ making less money than they were last year the overall sentiment is clearly bullish moving forward... whether that continues or not i have no idea, but the case can be made for an investment in AIR even at these lofty prices so long as you know when to leave it on the table...

Disc: not held

[couta1]

Euphoria mate

The world is a happy place at the moment .....with some sectors / stocks nothing can go wrong

Get the gist - will be $1.50 more than a year ago soon - that is what euphoria does, don't fight it.

Euphoria, that hits the nail on the head winner, nothing to do with value aye. I'm just happy I'm not a buyer at current prices, no chance of getting a severe trashing like the Air coaster can dish out, others may like to consider that if they are contemplating taking up a position at such lofty levels. I'll leave the bulls to it now, I'm happy over on planet Spark, not as sensational, but a whole lot safer IMO.

[RTFQ]

AIR has over 1.4billion cash in its war chest to fend off competition, it's in a much stronger position than this time last year looking forward. Just look what it is doing to Hawaiian, whispers are that they can't stand the heat. The American's couldn't during the shoulder season either.



Thru their war chest they have the ability to dictate the terms in respect of revenue sharing routes. They could easily take a million a week loss for a couple of years on the Tasman, as an example, if needed to squeeze their opposition. This is why Qantas will not take them head on with regard to Jetstar.


A couple of months back I thought AIR was going to go south but got back in shortly after, rereading some of Roger's posts swayed me also.

[winner69]

RTFQ - don't forget that a large chunk of that 'war chest' isn't really their money, it's punters money (prepaid fares) that AIR still need to spend cash on flying them to wherever.

AIR had a billion in the bank on the day the government bailed them out many years ago.


AIR collect $50m or so interest a year on that cash - that's good eh.

[sb9]

Well into the 340s now, not long to cross that 350 mark, after that who knows...did someone call 400 is a real possibility as well.

[Beagle]

Shareholders have enjoyed a stellar run this quarter so some consolidation around the current level shouldn't be a surprise to anyone while we wait for further clarity on progress from the company which will come from not only their monthly operating stat's but of course the annual result itself in August and management briefings around that followed by potentially a FY18 forecast at the Annual meeting.

Extract from post 29 June. I am starting to ponder however given the recent SP strength whether my estimate of $575m might be a bit low. I was well under with my half year estimate back in February...maybe the full year result starts with a 6 ?

[RTFQ]

Winner, I was lead to believe this was in addition to forward bookings, but you may well be right. Cheers