AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Good to see it comes back a bit. It was too hot.

Will need to be a long descent before some passengers would look at rebooking a flight.

[arc]

Will need to be a long descent before some passengers would look at rebooking a flight.

Depending on their watchfulness theres either a car waiting at the bottom or an ambulance..

But who knows what tomorrow may bring...

[Beagle]

U.S. airlines and QAN down ~ 2% overnight / today. No worries, just moving in line with the sector.

[see weed]

No not me mate. Relaxed and enjoying the long haul flight...looking forward to the next meal service

Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day.

[GTI]

Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day.

I managed to onboard with ticket 349 yesterday...

[Beagle]

I managed to onboard with ticket 349 yesterday...

Welcome on board. Put on a movie and enjoy the flight ...oh nearly forgot...to set the mood watch the safety in paradise video for which I provided a link further up this page

[sb9]

Looks like the afternoon rally is about to start with volume picking...

[tim23]

Same here. But a good chance for late comers to get on board before it carries on it's merry way. Hopefully just another little blip on it's way to $4 ex div day.

Often have rallied strongly post result - lets hope so again the $4 is possible

[Baa_Baa]

Repetition and reputation don't go hand in hand. Applies here and all threads. Look at Mod, for example who posts only occasionally and has huge rep, whereas others trot out the same old same old, day after day, usually re-enforcing what Mod said months ago. Choose wisely whose rhetoric one listens to, moreso what one follows. Just saying.

BAA

[Beagle]

Hi folks. Thought I would add my 2c before disappearing again for awhile. Still haven't sold a share.

Been a tough year obviously. I think most of us underestimated the impact to yields that the lower oil price/competition would bring. It's a global phenomenon. Certainly my FY17 earnings estimates have fallen from 40-45c down to 30-35c. That said the share price move down has been dramatic, leaving the company (imho) significantly undervalued, as has been the case for about the last 5 years (has it been that long...).

I certainly knew that FY16 was peak, and perhaps naively thought the dividend / cash-flow story would support the stock. Clearly the negative momentum and uncertainty on yields has mean't a tough devaluation, and risk being priced into the stock.

Where to from here then?

For the ST investor: Yield comparisons get easier in January, so should the operating stats firm up I would expect a re-rating towards 2.50, which values the stock on a reasonable 8x PE.

For the LT investor: Personally i'm not too concerned whether AIR make 28 or 32c in FY17 EPS. The question is sustainability and ideally growth in profit from there. If sustained (along with cash flow) there is a bonanza in FY19-20. I did a few figures and have spoken to the CFO, basically over the next 4 years (if things stay stable), AIR could pay $1.80 in dividends. That's based on a 50c special in FY19, and a 60c special in 2020 plus recurring twenty something ordinary. Over 5 years, you basically get your entire capital back, so if the stock is still at $2, you double your money (15% p.a). Any growth is cream on top.

I wouldn't be so tough on management either. Yes I agree they are too conservative, but with a government shareholder that's natural. As for the pay they are delivering so what's the problem? I would say we are lucky to have them. The new IR is good too.

Best, millimod

Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.

Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.